Episode 312: Dew Point

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Ian McMillan and Kevin Firari examine a market running on fumes as the S&P 500 remains stuck in its trading range while momentum and market breadth struggle beneath the surface. They discuss semiconductors and the Nasdaq 100 testing their 200-day moving averages, fading growth leadership, and whether strength in Healthcare and pockets of value represents meaningful rotation or another short-lived handoff. The conversation also explores a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising interest rates, and why historically bullish post-midterm seasonality doesn’t necessarily mean a smooth ride higher. With the S&P 500 once again rejected at 7,620 and momentum strategies struggling for traction, is this simply a frustrating pause within an uptrend, or is prolonged indecision setting the stage for a deeper correction?

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Dave Zarling and Ian McMillan examine a sharp market selloff as semiconductors, technology, and momentum stocks break important technical levels. Despite the S&P 500 remaining near its rising 200-day moving average, weakening market breadth, failed breakouts, and rising volatility suggest growing risks beneath the surface. With the historically bullish seasonal period underway, was this week's selling a healthy flush that could set up a rebound, or a warning shot signaling a much deeper correction?

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Dave Zarling and Ian McMillan examine an S&P 500 stuck in a prolonged trading range as market leadership continues to shift beneath the surface. Technology and semiconductors struggle at key technical levels, while Healthcare and Energy show improving relative strength. They also explore the sharp contrast between bullish retail investors and defensive institutions, weakening market breadth, and the evolving momentum trends reflected in ADPV's changing holdings. With major indices testing important support levels and market participation remaining narrow, is this simply a healthy consolidation after a powerful rally, or is the market preparing for a more significant move lower?

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Dave Zarling and Ian McMillan examine the growing divergence between the cap-weighted indices and the average stock. They discuss weakness in semiconductors, AI-related stocks, and mega-cap technology, while Energy and Healthcare show improving relative strength. Small caps and emerging markets remain under pressure, regional banks are flashing caution, and a strengthening U.S. dollar adds another potential headwind. With volatility rising and midterm elections approaching, is the market setting up for a deeper correction toward the 200-day moving average, or are we witnessing a rotation that could eventually strengthen market participation? The guys break down the key technical levels, sector trends, and market signals worth watching in the weeks ahead.

In this episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market sitting near all-time highs despite significant damage beneath the surface, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks more than 20% below their own all-time highs. They discuss the continued leadership from technology and semiconductors, the potential for breadth to finally expand, and whether beaten-down areas of the market can catch up or the strongest trends simply keep getting stronger. The conversation also examines washed-out breadth readings, bearish investor sentiment, rising money-market allocations, higher oil and interest rates, widening credit spreads, a strengthening dollar, and the surprising resilience of Bitcoin. With Q4 historically one of the stronger seasonal periods, they consider whether the recent flush has run its course or whether the cap-weighted indexes still have some catching down to do.

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, David Zarling and Ian McMillan examine a market sending dramatically different signals above and below the surface. The S&P 500 remains near its highs while the Nasdaq, technology, and several areas of semiconductor leadership push toward or into new highs, but underneath the indexes, breadth has deteriorated sharply, with a large percentage of stocks already experiencing significant corrections. David and Ian break down whether this washout is setting the stage for a broadening Q4 rally or whether the weakness underneath the surface eventually pulls the major indexes lower. They discuss semiconductor leadership, AI and software, FANG and MAG stocks, struggling small and mid caps, rising CCC credit spreads, industrials and materials testing key technical levels, and the continued pressure from rising interest rates. They also check in on Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the U.S. dollar, and several important relative-strength relationships as they look for clues about what comes next.

In Episode 314, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market that continues to frustrate investors with months of sideways price action despite the major indexes remaining relatively close to their highs. They dig into deteriorating breadth, extremely low stock correlations, elevated dispersion, bearish sentiment, and the growing number of S&P 500 stocks already experiencing meaningful corrections beneath the surface. The conversation also covers energy’s continued leadership, fading international and small-cap relative strength, improving action in parts of crypto, and the remarkably small number of stocks that have cleared their June highs and gone on to new all-time highs. With the S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 essentially going nowhere since May, they debate whether the market is simply consolidating within an uptrend, setting up for a broader “flush and go,” or slowly wearing investors out while waiting for price action to finally prove the next move.

  In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss market breadth and the dispersion between stocks within the S&P 500 and the index itself, sector performance and more specifically how Energy continues to outperform, treasury yields, credit spreads, volatility, and seasonality.  

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued sideways move in the S&P 500, dispersion analysis of stocks within the S&P 500, cryptocurrencies that are showing strength, international equities, whether we are going to see areas that lead early in the year taking back the reins to end the year, and which areas of transports are looking the best. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the rough look out of the Russell 2000, the poor performance out of Industrials except for Marine Shipping. They also discuss the potential failed breakdown in long-term U.S. Treasuries, Cryptocurrencies, Semiconductors, and market breadth.