Carl Vine: The Japan Earnings Story Has Legs

This is Dan’s second appearance on The Long View, his first taking place back in May 2019, when Christine Benz and I interviewed him for the podcast. Dan is Pimco’s group chief investment officer, a managing director, and a member of the firm’s executive committee and investment committee. He is also lead portfolio manager for the firm’s Income, Credit Hedge Fund, and Mortgage Opportunistic strategies, and a portfolio manager for Total Return strategies. Morningstar named Dan Fixed-Income Manager of the Year for 2013. Dan earned his bachelor’s degree in economics from Occidental College and his MBA in analytic finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. We conducted this interview at Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California.BackgroundBioPimco Income Institutional FundPimco Credit Opportunities Bond Institutional FundPimco Mortgage Opportunities and Bond Institutional Fund“Dan Ivascyn: Building a Portfolio to Bend but not Break,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 11, 2019.Secular Outlook“The Aftershock Economy,” by Dan Ivascyn, Andrew Balls, and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, June 6, 2023.“Income Fund Update: Capitalizing on the Global Opportunities in Fixed Income,” by Dan Ivascyn and Esteban Burbano, pimco.com, May 13, 2024.“What to Expect When You’re Expecting Rate Cuts,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kimberley Stafford, pimco.com, April 25, 2024.“Pimco’s Ivascyn Warns of ‘Too Much Enthusiasm’ on 2024 Rate Cuts,” by Michael Mackenzie, Bloomberg.com, Nov. 15, 2023.“Income Fund Update: Compelling Yields Today, Potential Price Appreciation Tomorrow,” by Dan Ivascyn and Esteban Burbano, pimco.com, Feb. 20, 2024.“Capitalizing on Market Shifts in 2024,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kenneth Chambers, pimco.com, January 2024.“Bonds Look Attractive Compared With Cash, Equities,” by Dan Ivascyn, pimco.com, February 2024.“Yield Matters: A Fresh Look at Core Bonds,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn, Mohit Mittal, and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, May 2024.“What Higher-for-Longer Rates Mean for Investors,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kimberley Stafford, pimco.com, February 2024.“Opportunity in Focus: Private Credit,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kenneth Chambers, pimco.com, January 2024.“Navigating Uncertainty With Alternative Investments,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, December 2023.

We have two guests this week on The Long View, our colleagues, Damien Conover and Rebecca Springer, who both focus on healthcare investing—Damien on the public equity side and Rebecca focusing on private markets for Morningstar PitchBook. Damien is director of healthcare research and director of equity strategy for Morningstar Research Services. Before joining Morningstar in 2007, Damien covered healthcare for Raymond James, Bank of Montreal, and Tucker Anthony. He holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in finance from the University of Wisconsin, where he was a member of its applied security analysis program, and he holds the CFA designation. Rebecca Springer is lead healthcare analyst for Morningstar PitchBook, where she directs coverage of private market investing across healthcare and the life sciences. She has written extensively on P/E investing in healthcare providers, the growing role of retailers in healthcare, and value-based care. She has worked in nonprofit consulting and as a college lecturer. Rebecca holds a bachelor’s from Yale, a master’s from Cambridge, and a doctorate from Oxford.BackgroundDamien Conover bioRebecca Springer bioAnti-Obesity Drugs and Healthcare“Obesity Drug Stocks: Where to Invest Now,” by Diana Anghel, Morningstar.com, Dec. 7, 2023.“Eli Lilly Earnings: Pipeline Gains and Great Diabetes and Weight-Loss Sales,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Feb. 6, 2024.“Eli Lilly’s Strong Position in GLP-1 Drugs and Powerful Pipeline Support Industry-Leading Growth,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Feb. 6, 2024.“Walmart, Amazon and CVS Want to Disrupt Healthcare Services. Here’s How PE and VC Could Benefit,” by Rebecca Springer, PitchBook.com, Sept. 13, 2022.“Q2 2023: Healthcare IT Report,” PitchBook.com, Sept. 12, 2023.“Investment Opportunities in the Biopharma Industry,” by Karen Andersen and Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, April 5, 2024.“Research & Development Is Driving Medical Breakthroughs and Exponential Growth Opportunities,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, April 7, 2022.“Healthcare Stocks: Valuations Look Attractive Across Almost All Industries,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, April 3, 2024.“Pfizer Highlights Pipeline to Address Post-2025 Patent Cliff, as Long-Term Growth Concerns Linger,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Dec. 12, 2022.“Can Innovation Offset Biopharma Firms’ Losses From Patent Expiration?” by Damien Conover and Karen Andersen, Morningstar.com, March 21, 2023.“A Wide-Moat Dividend Stock to Buy That’s 35% Undervalued,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Aug. 2, 2023.“AbbVie: Cerevel Acquisition Brings High-Risk/High-Reward Neuroscience Pipeline Drugs at a Fair Price,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Dec. 7, 2023.“How Weight Loss Drugs Will Reshape Healthcare,” by Rebecca Springer, PitchBook.com, Nov. 16, 2023.“Healthcare Funds Report,” PitchBook.com, Feb. 26, 2024.“Q3 2023: Healthcare Future Report: Weight Loss Drugs,” PitchBook.com, Sept. 29, 2023.Covid Vaccines“Pfizer Earnings: Cost-Cutting Remains on Track to Adapt to COVID-19 Product Sale Declines,” by Damien Conover, Morningstar.com, Jan. 30, 2024.“Focus: Drug Companies Face Covid Cliff in 2023 as Sales Set to Plummet,” by Michael Erman and Patrick Wingrove, reuters.com, Feb. 6, 2023.Value-Based Care“PitchBook Analyst Note: The Value-Based Care Enabler Landscape: 2024 Update,” PitchBook.com, March 14, 2024.“Enablement Companies Are Key to the Future of Value-Based Care,” by Rebecca Springer, PitchBook.com, March 16, 2024.“Our Value-Based Care Crystal Ball,” by Rebecca Springer, PitchBook.com, July 22, 2023.Healthcare Market Underperformance“Healthcare Service Report,” PitchBook.com, May 7, 2024.“Healthcare Is a Frontier Not Even Walmart Could Conquer—And It’s Not Looking Great for Others Either,” by Katie Adams, medcitynews.com, May 1, 2024.OtherSesameAmazon ClinicRo

Our guest on the podcast today is Greg McBride. Greg is chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, where he has worked for more than 25 years. He received his bachelor’s in finance from the University of Florida. He is also a CFA charterholder.BackgroundBioBankrateState of the Economy/Outlook for Interest Rates“Survey: Despite a Resilient Economy, Experts Still See a Near 1-in-2 Chance of a Recession,” by Sarah Foster, bankrate.com, Jan. 3, 2024.“Bankrate’s Interest Rate Forecast for 2024: Mortgages, Credit Cards and More Will Stay Pricey, Even if the Fed Cuts Rates,” by Sarah Foster, bankrate.com, Jan. 2, 2024.“Credit Card Debt Is at a Record High as Fed Raises Rates Again,” by Cora Lewis, apnews.com, March 22, 2023.“Take These 12 Steps as the Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates High,” by Sarah Foster, bankrate.com, May 1, 2024.Saving“Survey: Two-Thirds of Savers Still Earn a Savings Account APY of Less Than 4%,” by Karen Bennett, bankrate.com, March 27, 2024.“How the Federal Reserve Impacts Savings Account Interest Rates,” by Karen Bennett, bankrate.com, May 1, 2024.“CD Ladder: What It Is and How to Build One,” by Rene Bennett, bankrate.com, Feb. 27, 2024.“Why Now Might Be a Good Time to Consider Longer-Term CDs,” by Matthew Goldberg, bankrate.com, April 2, 2024.“How to Start (and Build) an Emergency Fund,” by Karen Bennett, bankrate.com, Feb. 29, 2024.“The Best Places to Keep Your Emergency Fund,” by Greg McBride, bankrate.com, Feb. 27, 2024.“Greg McBride’s 2023 Guide: How to Prioritize Emergency Savings, Retirement Savings and Debt Repayment,” by Greg McBride, bankrate.com, Feb. 28, 2023.“Is My Money Safe? What You Need to Know About Bank Failures,” by Adriana Morga, apnews.com, April 28, 2023.“Pros and Cons of a Money Market Account,” by Greg McBride, bankrate.com, March 26, 2024.Mortgages, Homebuying, and Auto Loans“Forecast: Mortgage Rates to Gradually Decline in 2024,” by Jeff Ostrowski, bankrate.com, Jan. 2, 2024.“What the Fed’s Moves Mean for Mortgages, Credit Cards and More,” by Tara Siegel Bernard, nytimes.com, March 20, 2024.“Housing Market Predictions for 2024,” by Ruben Caginalp, bankrate.com, April 4, 2024.“Auto Loan Forecast for 2024: Rates Should Ease for Good-Credit Borrowers,” by Rebecca Betterton, bankrate.com, Jan. 2, 2024.OtherRose Foundation’s Consumer Financial Education Fund

Our guest this week is Carl Vine. Carl is co-head of Asian Investment for M&G, a UK-based asset manager. Carl joined M&G in 2019 and was appointed to the management team of the Japan and wider Asian equity strategies. Prior to M&G, Carl co-founded Port Meadow Capital Management, a boutique investment firm based in Oxford in 2014. He also worked for SAC Capital Advisors in Hong Kong, for TPG-Axon Capital, and for Prudential in both London and Tokyo. Carl is a graduate of Oxford University.BackgroundBioM&GM&G (Lux) Asian Fund EUR A AccM&G Japan Smaller Companies Fund Sterling R IncJapan Funds“A Look Back on 2023 for M&G Japan Fund,” by Carl Vine, mandg.com, Jan. 18, 2024.“Investors Are Pouring Their Love (and Money) Into These Three Funds,” by Christopher Johnson, Morningstar.co.uk, Feb. 14, 2024.“‘I Don’t See Euphoria’: Carl Vine on M&G Japan’s Meteoric Rise to $5bn,” Video interview, citywire.com, April 18, 2024.“Is Japan the Investment Play of 2023?” by Darius McDermott, moneymarketing.co.uk, Jan. 17. 2023.“The Japan Opportunity,” by Carl Vine, mandg.com, March 29, 2023.“M&G Webcast: A Unique Perspective on Japan,” Webcast with Carl Vine, mandg.com, June 2, 2023.“Something Fundamental in Japan’s Inflation Environment Is Changing,” Webcast with Carl Vine, mandg.com, June 22, 2023.“Enter the Dragon: Why China Is Competitively Positioned,” by David Perrett, mandg.com, March 7, 2024.

Today on the podcast, we welcome back Meir Statman. Meir is the Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance at Santa Clara University. Meir’s latest book is A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance. Other books include Behavioral Finance: The Second Generation, What Investors Really Want, and Finance for Normal People. Meir’s research has also been published in the Journal of Finance, the Financial Analyst Journal, the Journal of Portfolio Management, and many other journals. He received his PhD from Columbia University and his BA and MBA from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.BackgroundBioA Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral FinanceBehavioral Finance: The Second GenerationWhat Investors Really Want: Know What Drives Investor Behavior and Make Smarter Financial DecisionsFinance for Normal People: How Investors and Markets BehaveFinancial Well-Being“Financial Advisers as Well-Being Advisers,” by Meir Statman, financialplanningassociation.org, September 2019.“More Time or More Money? How Wealth Affects What We Value,” by Meir Statman, avantisinvestors.com, October 2022.Other“Meir Statman: ‘We Are All Normal,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 30, 2019.“What Is Cantril’s Ladder?” by Michael Hartnett, sciotoanalysis.com, Feb. 9, 2024.“High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but not Emotional Well-Being,” by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, nlm.gov, Sept. 21, 2010.“Why Olympic Bronze Medalists Are Happier Than Silver Medalists,” by John A. List, Time.com, Feb. 10, 2022.“The Mental Mistakes We Make With Retirement Spending,” by Meir Statman, wsj.com, April 24, 2017.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is group chief economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. He is also an associate fellow at Chatham House, an International Affairs think tank. In his Capital Economics role, Neil manages a team of economists and is a well-known voice in the investment community. He has served as chief emerging markets economist and once managed Capital Economics’ New York office, having joined the firm in 2006 from the United Kingdom’s Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioChatham HouseWorld Economy, Globalization, and Elections“China, Inflation, Trade Wars—Your Frequently Asked Questions,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, March 4, 2024.“Maintaining Market Confidence Is Key to Managing ‘Snowballing’ Public Debt,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, April 8, 2024.“Pivoting Central Bankers Must Face Down the Ghost of Arthur Burns,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 29, 2024.“Ignore the Straight-Line Forecasts. These Forces Will Shape the Global Economy to 2050,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 26, 2024.“In the China Vs. US Size Stakes, It’s What You Measure That Counts,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 15, 2024.“Trump Trade Wars, Stock Market Bubbles, Japan’s Market Comeback, and the World in 2050,” Capital Economics Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“World Economy Is Fracturing, not Deglobalizing,” by Neal Shearing, chathamhouse.org, Feb. 8, 2023.“It’s All Connected—Why Investors Can’t Ignore the Global Economy’s Megatrends,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Oct. 2, 2023.Artificial Intelligence“From Upbeat to Apocalyptic: Making Sense of the AI Headlines,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Jan. 22, 2024.“How to Get a Handle on AI’s Many Implications for Economies and Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 10, 2023.Other“Read My Lips: No New Tax Cuts,” by Paul Ashworth, capitaleconomics.com, Feb. 12, 2024.

Our guest on the podcast today is author and columnist, Matt Krantz. He is the personal finance and management editor at Investor’s Business Daily. Prior to joining IBD, Matt was a senior financial writer for Capital Group. He was also a personal finance writer and reporter at USA TODAY for nearly 18 years. Matt is also the author of several books, including Fundamental Investing for Dummies, Online Investing for Dummies, and Retirement Planning for Dummies.BackgroundBioInvestor’s Business DailyFundamental Analysis for Dummies, by Matt KrantzOnline Investing for Dummies, by Matt KrantzRetirement Planning for Dummies, by Matt KrantzWork at IBD“CANSLIM Explained: What It Is and How It Works,” by James Chen, Investopedia.com, April 2, 2024.Investors/Strategies“Feisty Rivals Take on Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk on Weight Loss,” by Matt Krantz, investors.com, March 19, 2024.“How to Make Money on Nvidia—And Take Much Less Risk,” by Matt Krantz, investors.com, March 14, 2024.OtherHow to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, by William O’NeilThe Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio, by William BernsteinThe Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risks, by William Bernstein“Bernstein: ‘I Don’t Think the System Needs Nudges. I Think the System Needs Dynamite,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 7, 2019.“Bill Bernstein: We’re Starting to See all of the Signs of a Bubble,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, March 9, 2021.“Bill Bernstein: Revisiting ‘The Four Pillars of Investing,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, July 11, 2023.QuickenThinkorswim

Our guest on the podcast today is Victor Haghani. He is the co-author of a new book called The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In 2011, Victor founded Elm Wealth, an investment advisory firm for high-net-worth individuals. He started his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, where he became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group. And in 1993, he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management. He graduated from the London School of Economics with a bachelor’s degree in economics.BackgroundBioElm WealthThe Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, by Victor Haghani and James WhiteInvestment Sizing and Expected Utility“The Most Costly Investment Mistake You Can Make Is Easy to Avoid,” by Victor Haghani and James White, Bloomberg.com, Feb. 14, 2024.“Bigger Is the Enemy of Better Investing,” by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, businesstimes.com, March 20, 2021.Robert K. Merton“Merton Model: Definition, History, Formula, What It Tells You,” by Will Kenton, Investopedia.com, Aug. 10, 2022.“Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case,” by Robert C. Merton, jstor.org, August 1969.“How Much of a Good Thing Is Too Much?” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Oct. 11, 2022.“To Realize, or Not to Realize,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, Oct. 22, 2020.Lifetime and Retirement Spending“Spending Like You’ll Live Forever,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, April 6, 2021.“Cut Your Losses Early; Let Your Profits Run,” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Aug. 8, 2023.Puzzles“George Costanza At It Again: The Leveraged ETF Episode,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, April 16, 2020.“Who Wants Protection Like This?” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Nov. 14, 2022.Other“Vic’s TEDx Talk: Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?” Elmwealth.com, March 8, 2013.Matt LevineMichael LewisThe St. Petersburg ParadoxHal Hershfield“Hal Hershfield: People Treat Their Future Self as if It’s Another Person,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 21, 2021.Stumbling on Happiness, by Daniel GilbertWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management, by Robert LowensteinInventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It, by Nicholas Dunbar

Our guest on the podcast today is Peter Mallouk. Peter is the President and CEO of Creative Planning, an independent registered investment advisor with roughly $300 billion in combined assets under management and advisement. Peter has also written or co-written several books, including The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes and How to Avoid Them, The Path: Accelerating Your Journey to Financial Freedom with Tony Robbins, and his latest, Money, Simplified. Peter graduated from the University of Kansas with four majors, including degrees in business administration and economics. He went on to earn a law degree and a Master of Business Administration degree, also at the University of Kansas.BackgroundBioCreative PlanningPathway Financial EducationBooksMoney, Simplified, by Peter MalloukThe 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes and How to Avoid Them: Getting Investing Right, by Peter MalloukThe Path: Accelerating Your Journey to Financial Freedom, by Peter Mallouk, with Tony RobbinsPodcastsDown the Middle, with Peter Mallouk and Jonathan ClementsSignal or Noise? with Charlie Bilello and Peter MalloukCreative Planning“What to Expect in the Year Ahead,” by Peter Mallouk and Jonathan Clements, creativeplanning.com, Dec. 29, 2023.“Creative Planning Closes on Acquisition of Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management,” by Diana Britton, wealthmanagement.com, Nov. 3, 2023.“Peter Mallouk: The No. 1 Thing to Look for in Investments Now,” by Dinah Wisenberg Brin, thinkadvisor.com, Feb. 27, 2023.“Tax-Loss Harvesting: What It Is and Why It Matters,” by Taylor Harroun, creativeplanning.com, Oct. 4, 2023.“The Media Has a Fiduciary Responsibility, But It’s Not to You,” by Peter Mallouk, creativeplanning.com, March 15, 2024.Other“How Financial Planners Actually Do Financial Planning (2023),” by Dan Inveen, Michael Kitces, and Meghaan Lurtz, kitces.com, 2023.

Our guest this week is our colleague, Bryan Armour, who is director of passive investment strategies research, North America, for Morningstar Research Services. Bryan is also editor of the ETFInvestor newsletter. Before joining Morningstar in 2020, Bryan spent seven years working for Finra, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, conducting trade surveillance and investigations specializing in exchange-traded funds. Prior to Finra, he worked for a proprietary trading firm as an options trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Bryan holds a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.BackgroundBioPassive Investing and ETFs“Index Funds Have Officially Won,” by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Feb. 13, 2024.“Active Funds Fell Short of Passive Peers in 2023,” by Bryan Armour, Morningstar.com, March 12, 2024.“It’s Official: Passive Funds Overtake Active Funds,” by Adam Sabban, Morningstar.com, Jan. 17, 2024.“ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: The Benefits That Really Matter,” by Bryan Armour, Morningstar.com, Feb. 6, 2024.“2023 Model Portfolio Landscape,” Morningstar.com.“Markets Are ‘Fundamentally Broken’ Due to Passive Investing, Says David Einhorn,” by William Watts, marketwatch.com, Feb. 9, 2024.“How Fund Fees Are the Best Predictor of Returns,” by Russ Kinnel, Morningstar.com, Jan. 12, 2026.“Cage Match: Traditional Index Funds vs. ETFs,” by Christine Benz and Margaret Giles, Morningstar.com, Oct. 20, 2023.“Global Fund Flows: 2023 in Review,” Morningstar.com, Feb. 6, 2024.“A Closer Look at Vanguard’s Newest Core Bond ETFs,” by Dan Sotiroff, Morningstar.com, Feb. 12, 2024.“3 New ETFs That Stand Out From the Pack,” by Ryan Jackson, Morningstar.com, Aug. 30, 2023.“Converting Mutual Funds to ETFs: What to Make of the Trend,” by Daniel Sotiroff, Morningstar.com, April 11, 2023.“How to Choose a Great Dividend ETF,” by Dan Sotiroff, Morningstar.com, May 17, 2023.“The Best and Worst New ETFs of 2023,” by Bryan Armour, Morningstar.com, Dec. 19, 2023.Bitcoin and Covered-Call ETFs“Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Here. Should You Invest?” by Bryan Armour, Morningstar.com, Jan. 11, 2024.“Grayscale’s Victory Over the SEC Doesn’t Mean a Spot Bitcoin ETF—for Now,” by Bryan Armour, Morningstar.com, Aug. 30, 2023.“Should You Buy a Covered-Call ETF?” Video interview with Bryan Armour and Ruth Saldanha, Morningstar.com, June 14, 2023.Securities MentionediShares ESG Aware ETF ESGUiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUALARK Innovation ETF ARKKGrayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) GBTCJPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF JEPIGlobal X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF QYLDVanguard’s High Dividend Yield ETF VYMBlackRock Flexible Income ETF BINCSchwab High Yield Bond ETF SCYBT. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF TCAF2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITXYieldMax AI Option Income Strategy ETF AIYYOther“The ETF Rule: What It Is and Why It Matters,” by Irene Huhulea, Investopedia.com, Jan. 25, 2024.