IFB361: How to Project Revenue Growth in DCF

Welcome to the Investing for Beginners podcast. Today, we're taking a bird's-eye view of Alibaba (BABA), the Chinese e-commerce giant. We'll explore its business model, financials, and potential risks. Whether you're considering investing or just curious about this tech behemoth, join us as we break down the key factors every investor should know about Alibaba. 1. 00:00 - Introduction to Alibaba (BABA) and initial thoughts on the company 2. 03:45 - Overview of Alibaba's core businesses: e-commerce and cloud computing 3. 05:41 - Discussion of Alipay, Alibaba's super app for various services 4. 10:06 - Analysis of Alibaba's financial performance and growth trends 5. 15:10 - Examination of Alibaba's balance sheet and capital allocation strategies 6. 20:20 - Consideration of Alibaba's company lifecycle and future growth potential 7. 24:26 - Evaluation of risks associated with investing in Chinese companies 8. 28:53 - Final thoughts on Alibaba as an investment opportunity Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/beginners. Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Start building your dreams with Bluehost.com Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Investing for Beginners podcast, episode 362. Today, Dave and Andrew explore the concept of competitive advantage period (CAP), a valuation tool associated with Michael Mauboussin. They'll discuss how CAP helps explain why certain businesses maintain higher valuations over longer periods and its implications for investors. [00:00:32] Introducing competitive advantage period (CAP), a valuation concept associated with Michael Mauboussin's writings. [01:08] CAP explained: Period where outstanding businesses maintain excess returns due to competitive advantages. [02:38] CAP helps explain why certain companies have higher valuations for longer periods. [04:09] Traditional 10-year DCF models may be too short for companies with strong moats. [06:32] Scale economy shared: A self-reinforcing moat that strengthens as a company grows. [09:40] Companies like Visa and Mastercard strengthen moats by working with potential competitors. [15:24] Market may value companies differently based on expected duration of competitive advantage. [17:42] CAP valuation must be logical; unreasonable growth projections can lead to absurd results. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Start building your dreams with Bluehost.com Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Investing for Beginners podcast. Today, we're joined by financial educator Brian Feroldi to discuss Warren Buffett's perspective on earnings per share. We'll explore why EPS might be overrated and dive into the importance of return on capital metrics for investors. [00:01:14] Buffett's view: Earnings per share is overrated compared to return on capital. [00:03:21] Four ways to measure return on capital: ROIC, ROE, ROA, and ROCE. [00:07:03] Simple example: Million-dollar investment illustrates importance of return on capital. [00:12:28] Discount rate discussion: 10% minimum for individual stock investments. [00:17:30] Good return on capital ranges: 10-20% decent, over 20% excellent. [00:20:22] Six phases of company growth, including optimizing for profitability. [00:24:33] Alcoa example: Low return on capital correlates with poor stock performance. [00:28:45] Amazon case study: Not yet fully optimized for profits, affecting return metrics. Find more of Brian here: Youtube: Long Term Mindset X: Brian Feroldi Instagram: Brian Feroldi LinkedIn: Brian Feroldi Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Learn how to accurately estimate revenue growth in discounted cash flow (DCF) models, a crucial yet challenging aspect of company valuation. Discover techniques to minimize bias and improve accuracy, ensuring your investment decisions are based on solid financial analysis. 00:00:46 - Introduction to DCF Discussing revenue growth estimation in DCF models. 00:01:07 - Importance of Revenue Growth Revenue growth is crucial for long-term company valuation. 00:01:27 - Challenges in Estimation Estimating growth involves bias and guesswork challenges. 00:02:15 - Historical Revenue as a Guide Use past revenue trends to inform future estimates. 00:02:58 - Base Rates and Expectations Base rates help set realistic growth expectations. 00:03:41 - Avoiding Overconfidence Bias Don't overestimate growth beyond historical performance. 00:04:29 - Analyst Estimates as a Check Compare your estimates with market analyst expectations. 00:05:14 - Using Reinvestment Rate and ROIC Calculate growth using reinvestment rate and ROIC. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/beginners. Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover what to do when your stocks are automatically sold due to margin calls or account settings. Learn how to prevent unexpected sales and manage your portfolio effectively to avoid future issues. 00:00:38 - Listener Questions Introduction Addressing concerns about unexpected stock sales and solutions. 00:01:10 - Portfolio Auto-Sell Incident Listener's portfolio sold automatically, seeking advice on recovery. 00:01:30 - Possible Margin Call Explanation Insufficient funds may trigger automatic stock liquidation. 00:02:11 - Margin and Leverage Concerns Investing on margin can lead to forced sales. 00:03:00 - Avoiding Leverage Risks Avoid using leverage to prevent forced stock sales. 00:03:48 - Long-Term Investment Strategy Leverage conflicts with long-term investing due to market volatility. 00:05:17 - Learning from Mistakes Use this experience to reinforce sound investment practices. 00:06:23 - Understanding Margin Accounts Explanation of borrowing money from brokerages for stock purchases. 00:07:03 - Importance of Cash Reserves Maintain cash reserves to avoid margin calls and sales. 00:08:12 - Rebuilding After Auto-Sell Consider starting fresh with a long-term investment mindset. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/beginners. Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us in Episode 359 of the Investing for Beginners Podcast as we explore strategies to stay updated on your investments efficiently, balancing your busy life with smart, time-saving techniques. 00:00:51 - Staying Updated Efficiently Tips for tracking investments without excessive time commitment. 00:01:38 - Use Broker Alerts Set alerts for company updates and stock movements. 00:02:30 - Leverage Financial Tools Use APIs and platforms for quick company insights. 00:03:07 - Track Key Performance Indicators Maintain a spreadsheet to monitor company performance. 00:04:15 - Avoid Sensational News Focus on reliable sources to reduce emotional reactions. 00:06:30 - Balance Monitoring Frequency Understand when to check investments and when to relax. 00:09:41 - Analyze New Companies Efficient methods for evaluating potential investment opportunities. 00:12:14 - Utilize Screeners and Tools Use screeners to filter and analyze stocks quickly. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us in Episode 358 of the Investing for Beginners Podcast as we explore the concept of the circle of competence, inspired by Warren Buffett, to enhance your investment strategy and decision-making. 00:00:51 - Circle of Competence Introduction Understanding your investment strengths and limitations. 00:01:12 - Origin of the Concept Popularized by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. 00:02:25 - Benefits of Knowing Your Competence Increases success by focusing on familiar areas. 00:03:18 - Risks of Overstepping Competence Avoid investing in unfamiliar industries. 00:04:21 - Competence Beyond Industries Includes investment strategies and personal temperament. 00:05:25 - Determining Your Competence Reflect on past experiences and strengths. 00:08:17 - Expanding Your Competence Follow curiosity to learn new investment areas. 00:13:49 - Practical Application Use daily observations to generate investment ideas. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Get two hundred fifty dollars when you join Ramp. Go to ramp.com/BEGINNERS Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us as we explore the thrills and spills of investing! We discuss navigating the emotional rollercoaster of 100% gains and the art of bouncing back from losses. Finding 100% Gainers: The hosts discuss different approaches to finding stocks that could potentially double in value, focusing on sustainable growth vs. rapid price appreciation. (0:01:30 - 0:05:11) - ** Handling Big Gains: They debate the psychological challenges of managing large returns, emphasizing the importance of separating stock price fluctuations from a company's underlying business performance. (0:06:41 - 0:09:39) Identifying Narrative-Driven Investments: Learn how to discern whether a stock's rise is fueled by hype or strong fundamentals, using social media sentiment and business analysis as indicators. (0:12:08 - 0:13:56) Coping with Investment Losses: The hosts share strategies for dealing with the emotional impact of losing money, highlighting the importance of learning from mistakes and maintaining a long-term perspective. (0:21:48 - 0:25:58) Building a Winning Investment Mindset: The episode concludes by emphasizing the need to balance confidence with realistic expectations, accepting that not every investment will be a home run. (0:27:04 - 0:30:04) Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

oin us as we demystify tech investing with special guest Eric Flaningam from Generative Value. Learn how to apply value investing principles to find long-term winners in this exciting sector. (0:00-1:00) Introduction of guest Eric, a tech-focused value investor. ( 1:00-2:00) Why stocks? Eric finds intellectual challenge and future-predicting aspects exciting. (2:00-3:00) Eric's journey: From small-town Indiana to Microsoft to venture capital. (3:00-4:00) Early Buffett influence, learning from the greats, and the importance of managing downside risk. ( 4:00-5:00) Tech's allure: World-changing potential, intellectual complexity, and historical outperformance. (5:00-7:00) Applying Buffett's circle of competence to tech, focusing on understanding competitive advantages. (7:00-9:00) Overcoming tech intimidation: Start with industry research, read extensively, and focus on buyer decisions. (9:00-12:00) Understanding tech vs. business, the importance of industry primers, and the challenge of competitive landscapes. (12:00-16:00) Semiconductors and cloud as long-term tech bets, the role of disruption, and learning from history. (16:00-19:00) How companies view competition, the importance of solving customer problems, and the risk of disruption. (19:00-22:00) The Innovator's Dilemma: Business model innovation often trumps pure technological disruption. (22:00-25:00) Investing in the face of disruption, the importance of paranoia and humility, and embracing volatility. (25:00-29:00) Finding Eric's "quintessential" stock: Amazon as an example of deep competitive advantages. (29:00-32:00) Why some monopolies fly under the radar: ASML vs. Microsoft and Google. (32:00-36:00) The case for tech investing: High-quality businesses, long-term growth, and opportunities for outperformance. (36:00-39:00) Eric's investment process: Focus on identifying wonderful businesses, then wait for the right price. ( 39:00-42:00) The long-term advantage: Patience allows capitalizing on market drops and buying great companies on sale. (42:00-46:00) The AI adoption curve: It's early days, be patient, and expect the unexpected. To learn more from Eric: Generative Value X: @EricFlaningam Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us for Episode 356 of the Investing for Beginners podcast, where Dave and Andrew explore high-ROI companies with over $2 billion market cap, offering insights into their impressive financial metrics. [00:00:51] Criteria for Selection Companies selected have a return on equity (ROE) of 377% or higher. [00:01:20] Discussion Approach Dave and Andrew discuss companies off-the-cuff, sharing insights and analysis. [00:02:01] Understanding High ROE Exploration of factors driving high ROE, like increased net income or reduced equity. [00:03:49] Software Companies Discussion on software companies like GoDaddy and Fortinet with high margins and ROE. [00:05:28] Operating Margin Expansion GoDaddy's operating margin expansion boosts earnings, illustrating growth potential. [00:07:30] Home Depot's ROE Home Depot's high ROE due to positive equity shift from acquisitions. [00:10:05] Return on Invested Capital Importance of using return on invested capital for evaluating capital efficiency. [00:13:10] Booking vs. Airbnb Comparison of Booking and Airbnb, discussing growth potential and business models. [00:19:53] Hotel Franchise Models Exploration of hotel franchise models like Marriott and Choice Hotels for investment. [00:26:25] Airbnb's Market Position Airbnb's appeal to affluent customers and potential growth limitations discussed. [00:28:36] Colgate-Palmolive's Stability Colgate-Palmolive's predictable growth and stability make it an attractive investment. [00:32:11] Low Volatility Stocks Benefits of investing in low volatility stocks for consistent, long-term growth. Today's show is sponsored by: Go to shipstation.com and use code INVESTING to sign up for your FREE 60-day trial. Go to monarchmoney.com/BEGINNERS for an extended 30 day free trial! Nerdwallet.com/learnmore Find great investments at Value Spotlight Have questions? Send them to [email protected] Start learning how to value companies here:  DCF Demystified Link SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Amazon | Tunein Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices