Holy s**t! The biggest Dem special election flip yet

Even amidst all the grim news, supporters of democracy have much more power than they think. That's the message from election law expert Justin Levitt on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast.Levitt explains why Donald Trump has almost no legal power to direct the conduct of elections and emphasizes that voters have almost always rejected gerrymandering when given the chance. He even expresses cautious optimism that the Supreme Court won't wreck the remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act and expects that new GOP gerrymanders won't be enough to overcome a wave election.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's elections in Northern Virginia and Boston—two blowouts that were good news for Democrats. They discuss how Missouri Democrats can prevent Republicans from enacting their new gerrymandered map, and why Democratic primaries in a pair of key Senate races are almost certainly going to be a good thing. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Labor Day weekend was anything but slow on the news front, with three giant retirements dominating the political headlines. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we examine all three, starting with longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler's selfless embrace of generational change. Things were less happy on the other side of the ledger, though, with Joni Ernst bailing in Iowa and a conservative Supreme Court justice calling it quits in Wisconsin.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also speak with Jennifer Rodriguez, a top official at the AFL-CIO who explains how exactly her organization—a "union of unions"—supports the labor movement. Noting that organized labor is a rare institution that maintains high levels of public trust, Rodriguez tells us how her federation identifies pro-labor candidates and helps elect them to office. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have turned in a lot of remarkable performances in special elections this year, but Tuesday's win in Iowa was the biggest by far—and we explain why on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Not only did progressive organizer Catelin Drey flip a deep-red district, but by doing so, she broke the GOP's supermajority in the state Senate. It's also the latest sign that the political environment for Iowa Republicans is pug-ugly—not something they want with much bigger races on the line next year.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into the big new legal decision out of Utah, where a judge just ruled that Republicans were not permitted to gerrymander the state's congressional map and would have to draw a new one. It's a major victory for direct democracy, and it also means a new Democratic seat—likely in time for the 2026 midterms. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Now that California has unveiled its response to the Texas GOP's new gerrymander, we're examining the map district by district on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. We discuss all of the Republican seats that Democrats are targeting; what Plan B might look like for screwed-over GOP incumbents; which California Democrats are making the biggest sacrifices; and much, much more.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of a new Democratic challenger running against Maine Sen. Susan Collins: Graham Platner, a military veteran and oyster farmer whose campaign launch this week took the political world by storm. We explore what longtime politicos might have to learn from a first-time candidate like Platner—and how his message about affordability shares much in common with that of a very different candidate who's also shaking up Democratic politics.To celebrate our first anniversary and take advantage of our special offer to podcast listeners mentioned at the top of the show, please visit the-downballot.com/anniversary to enjoy 25% off our normal subscription rate. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Drowning in a sea of redistricting news? On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we introduce our brand-new guide to the latest developments in every state—a resource worth bookmarking because we're continually updating it. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard run through some of the top stories, including the status of the Democratic walkout in Texas, and how Democrats might fight back at the ballot box against new GOP gerrymanders in Ohio and Missouri by deploying an unusual tool.We also sit down with state Rep. Billie Butler, the newest member of the New Hampshire legislature. Butler, a musician and artist, tells us all about her recent special election win, a race that saw her face down appalling anti-trans attacks from Republicans to prevail by double digits. But what's actually top of mind for her constituents? The high cost of living, especially housing—a pressing issue she's eager to tackle at the state capitol. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice dive into Donald Trump’s multi-front efforts to rig the 2026 midterms—and the many obstacles he faces.If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, just click the button below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why Republicans face few constraints on passing new gerrymanders—and could face fewer still, if the Supreme Court guts what remains of the Voting Rights Act* How Trump’s completed garbled demand for a new census that would exclude undocumented immigrants runs afoul of the law* Why a totally bonkers GOP meltdown that Aaron clipped got featured in the first attack ad by the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s race for governorAnd much more! We also took your questions about Latino voting trends and the possibility of Texas losing seats if Trump gets his way on the census.If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.You can also subscribe on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

What's it like to have to indefinitely uproot your life in the face of thuggish legal threats so that you can help save democracy as we know it? Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa returns to The Downballot podcast to give us a rare inside look at the remarkable decision by Democrats to flee the state in an effort to block Republicans from passing an egregious new gerrymander.Plesa hammers the GOP for prioritizing partisan gain over critical flood relief; explains the devious ways Republicans want to undermine Black and Latino voting rights; and tells us about Democrats' new life on the road and the enthusiastic reception she and her compatriots have received—wherever they've gone.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explore newly reported details about California's plan to fight back, including a likely special election asking voters to adopt a new map, as well as which Republican incumbents might get targeted. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Ally Mutnick, a senior congressional reporter for Punchbowl, joins us to run down the ins and outs of mid-decade redistricting. We go through the Texas GOP's newly proposed map district by district to see how Republicans are targeting five Democratic seats—and discuss how Democrats might try to block the plan by breaking quorum in the state legislature.Then we look at the many other states where Democrats have suggested they might engage in an eye-for-an-eye response, with a particular focus on California. Mutnick also shares her thoughts on key Senate races across the country, including messy GOP primaries in Texas and Georgia; a matchup in North Carolina that already looks set; and a big outstanding question in Maine.If you haven’t already subscribed to The Downballot’s Morning Digest newsletter, just click below! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The big boss is (almost) here: Former Gov. Roy Cooper is reportedly set to run for North Carolina's open Senate seat, and we're talking all about it on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Cooper is the Democrats' No. 1 recruit of the 2026 midterms.We also talk with Brian Lemek, the executive director of Defend the Vote, about how his organization helps elect candidates eager to fight for democracy. Lemek tells us that it's okay for Democrats to acknowledge that the system is broken—and that doing so allows them to connect the task of fixing our democracy with voters' everyday concerns. He also flags some of his favorite candidates running this cycle, including one surprising name. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Texas Republicans already gerrymandered their maps half to death, but Donald Trump is pushing them to go even further. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, however, has proposed a tit-for-tat plan that would make the GOP pay a price, and we're exploring its potential on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Are Newsom's ideas legally feasible—and can he sell them to voters? A swing of as many as five House seats could depend on it.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also go behind the scenes to discuss what it's like to actually run in a special election with Washington state Sen. Deb Krishnadasan. She tells us all about the extremely swingy district she's defending; how the August top-two primary functions as a sort of massive poll of the November general election; and how Trump's "big beautiful bill" instantly got voters up in arms. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe