Dems notch 10th special election flip

On Tuesday night in New Hampshire, Democrats won yet another Republican seat in a special election—marking their 10th flip of Donald Trump’s second term. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, we unpack that race, then dive into a ton of others, including Steve Daines’ attempt to hand off his Senate seat to a preferred successor, Darrell Issa’s last-second dropout, runoff drama in Texas, upcoming primaries in Illinois, and more! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Primary season started with a bang on Tuesday night, headlined by Texas’ high-intensity Senate race. But there were tons of other important elections on the ballot, not just in the Lone Star State but in North Carolina and Arkansas as well. We recap the top contests on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, which include the first House incumbent to lose this year, multiple races headed to runoffs, and yet another special election flip by Democrats.We’re also joined this week by Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, the founder of a new group devoted to electing Democrats to county-level office nationwide called Boosting Future Leaders Onward. Poloncarz tells us all about these important but overlooked posts, including their far-reaching powers and how Democrats are using them to combat Donald Trump’s attacks on our democracy. He also highlights key elections across the country taking place this year. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

At long last, the 2026 primaries are upon us! On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay preview some of Tuesday’s most important races, including both parties’ primary for Senate in Texas, a scandal-plagued GOP congressman’s desperate bid for reelection in San Antonio, an early test for House Democrats facing upstart primary challengers in North Carolina, and more.Also joining us is Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, who explains how her organization, the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, helps make sure progressive ballot measures succeed and anti-democracy efforts fail. Fields Figueredo walks us through the entire life cycle of an initiative, which doesn’t end at passage—implementation is critical, too. And she spotlights some of the most important measures voters across the country will get to weigh in on this year. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Out of the blue, major Democratic players launched a bold new campaign to redraw Colorado’s congressional districts this week. On the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Democrats are taking their plan directly to voters, what kinds of changes it would make to the map, and what the political hurdles and legal pitfalls look like.The Davids also discuss two Arizona Republicans who abandoned their campaigns for public office on back-to-back days last week, despite earning endorsements from Donald Trump—and why these twin dropouts show the growing limits of Trump’s influence on GOP primaries. Speaking of Trump, the hosts flag a special election coming up in his literal backyard: Next month, Democrats will have the chance to flip the Florida House district that includes none other than Mar-a-Lago. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

After her weak win in 2022, Kathy Hochul’s political future looked dicey. Now, though, New York’s governor has a clear ride through the Democratic primary and looks to be in strong shape in the general election, too. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore Hochul’s remarkable—and remarkably unexpected—bounceback, fueled by her eagerness to go head-to-head with Donald Trump.The Davids also recap a string of recent elections, including progressive activist Analilia Mejia’s stunning upset in New Jersey, a big win for Louisiana Democrats on rural turf, and another massive overperformance by a Democrat in a deep-red district in Oklahoma. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

While Democrats exulted after flipping a deep-red legislative seat in Texas on Saturday night, Republicans started panicking—and they should be. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard go deep to explain the many ways in which Taylor Rehmet’s shocking win is scary for the GOP. The good news for Republicans? There isn’t any.The Davids also break down the new fourth-quarter fundraising reports that House and Senate hopefuls just filed. On both fronts, Democrats are starting to bring races online that could expand the playing field, while lackadaisical GOP efforts risk doing the exact opposite. You can follow along with our newly published charts featuring data for more than 900 candidates. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Ordinary Americans in Minnesota have shown extraordinary courage in standing up to ICE’s terror campaign, and on Tuesday night, they just delivered another blow: at the ballot box. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the results of an astonishing special election in St. Paul that set all kinds of records for Democrats—and shows that any attempt by Donald Trump to rig the midterms by deploying his goon squads could backfire very badly indeed.The Davids also chat with veteran election watcher Geoffrey Skelley, who is now chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ. Skelley tells us how DDHQ, long a source for results on election night, is expanding its coverage to give better context for all the data it produces. He also shares his thoughts on some high-leverage Senate primaries and explains some of the surprising reasons why House retirements have spiked in recent years. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Donald Trump’s redistricting wars are not over yet—not by a long shot. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard catch listeners up on the latest developments in every state where new maps are still in play, and there are quite a few.Some of the biggest questions: Will Virginia Democrats push the limits for a “10-1” map? Will infighting among Republicans in Florida doom the GOP’s hopes of a new gerrymander? And will a brand-new ruling out of New York that just struck down a red district withstand further legal scrutiny? We answer all these and more! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Co-host David Beard is joined by Nathaniel Rakich, managing editor of Votebeat, to talk through the big election news of the week. We cover Rep. Mary Peltola’s entry into the Alaska Senate race and what it means for Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate this fall. Then we discuss Rep. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than 45 years in Congress and the generational turnover House Democrats are experiencing. In our Deep Dive, Beard talks to Kansas Representative Sharice Davids and they discuss her consistent overperformances in a highly competitive district. Davids also discusses overcoming the Republican gerrymander that made her seat redder in 2022 and the GOP’s attempts at a new mid-decade gerrymander to make her seat even harder to win. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe