Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson: The Republicans' Strength Is Now Their Weakness

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are already divvying up how to investigate Musk, the one-time shadow president who's still making foreign policy decisions about the war in Ukraine. Also on tap for hearings is the impeachable Hegseth, who ironically broke the iconic globe used by Eisenhower—a man who actually knew how to fight a war. And of course there's self-enriching Jared Kushner, who pretends to do diplomacy with his Putin-worshipping sidekick, Steve Witkoff. Plus: Vance's support of Vivek's ad suggests that he has deep psychological problems, Marco keeps flailing on the Starlink debacle, the crypto industry is spending $55 million to buy Ohio Senator Jon Husted, Mike Rogers's wife has won some very large government contracts, and Kinzinger feels a real energy behind Talarico in Texas. Adam Kinzinger joins Tim Miller.show notes: Kinzinger's YouTube Kinzinger on Substack Andrew in “Morning Shots” on the Texas trans mailers Drop Site News on Mike Rogers’s wife’s government contracts Jon Stewart on Mike Rogers Chris Christie dragging Vivek The NYT on Alina Habba’s $50 million deal The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World”

Could there be a bigger sign of Ramaswamy's depravity and desperation than using a mother from hell to sell your message? His campaign for governor of Ohio against Amy Acton has been a nightmare from the beginning. Meanwhile, Murphy senses kryptonite in the water around Trump as well, particularly with the farm belt in revolt over tariffs and the price of diesel. But in Michigan, El-Sayed has got to cool it on the cocky bro stuff in the final days of his campaign. Plus: From our live show in Atlanta Tuesday evening, Gen. Hertling joined Tim to discuss the continuing blame game between Musk and the administration over the crippling of Ukraine's military communications, the lack of leadership at the Pentagon, and the failure to protect our troops. Mike Murphy and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling join Tim Miller.show notes: Hertling's recent piece, "Siding With Russia Is a Double Betrayal" Murphy’s “Hacks On Tap” pod Amy Acton’s campaign site The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You”

Though they deny any involvement, the Trump administration and Elon Musk are apparently helping Putin escalate his campaign of terror against Ukraine. Civilian casualties across Ukraine are rising—including women and children—but Trump said Monday that Russia "has been fine on Ukraine." At the same time, Team Trump looks to be lining up business deals with Russian energy companies. And Marco's whitewashing of it all is sickening. Plus: Zelensky is tired of Trump's games, China is playing a curious role on both sides of the war, and JD has another whopper to add to his stack of lies. Former Amb. Michael McFaul joins Tim Miller.show notes: McFaul’s book, “Autocrats vs Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder” Tim’s ‘Take’ with Caolan Robertson in Ukraine The NYT on potential Kushner/Witkoff deal with Russian company Lukoil Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta TONIGHT The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World”

The vice president had the gall to suggest he didn't know anything about what millions of Americans know: that Trump is using his office to enrich himself and that the administration made major mistakes in executing the war in Iran. But the polls strongly suggest a rebuke of Putin's biggest fan is coming because of the conflict in the Middle East. Plus: The obsession at Fox over Abdul El-Sayed is getting embarrassing, Mike Rogers is a POS, Tim and Bill share their new round of long shots (in North Carolina and Mississippi), and the tech oligarchs will be among the last to break with Trump.Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: The Bulwark LIVE in Charlotte Sunday evening Monday’s “Morning Shots” CBS’s town hall with Vance Mississippi’s Scott Colom’s campaign site Paul Barringer’s congressional campaign site for NC-13 Kimberly Hardy’s congressional campaign site for NC-7 Judd Legum on Zuckerberg Abdul El-Sayed confronting a Republican plant at one of his campaign events Bulwark LIVE in Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering” The Bulwark store For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/THEBULWARK.

For more than 10 years, Trump has been showing us how skilled he is at sowing division and riling people up. Alan sees the kind of tribal mentality that Trump has fostered on his own reality show, "The Traitors," where contestants make incredibly stupid decisions because they don't want to deviate from the pack. The actor takes the opportunity to urge people to vote, protest, and stay vigilant in the face of the Republicans' campaigns of hate against immigrants and trans people. (And that includes Vance's dumb, dated gay jokes.) Plus: Rep. Garcia of the House Oversight Committee is preparing to get the gavel in January. He's already teed up new Epstein legislation, and he's planning to end the cover-up of 3 million Epstein documents, many of which have to do with Donald Trump. Also on the target list: the Trump family's business deals and the donors to the ballroom.Alan Cumming and Rep. Robert Garcia join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.show notes: "The Traitors" on NBC Alan's show, "Tip Toe," on Starz October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Mike Johnson sure sounds afraid of what might come out when the House—under Democratic control—actually does its job and investigates the corruption of this administration. Democrats should start with the families of Trump officialdom who've been making bank since Inauguration Day. And as the Guilfoyle firing shows, everyone in Trumpland is expendable. Plus: Republicans have got nothing to offer voters but bribery and bigotry, Talarico shows the right way to disarm MAGA lies, the Elon-Putin-Trump Axis of Evil is together again, and George—in his first week back with The Bulwark—passed a cognitive test just like our president. George Conway joins Tim Miller.show notes: Follow George’s new Bulwark pod, “Psycho Politics” Trump talking to Ken Bone in 2016; evidence of his current mental decline Ossoff on Chris Hayes’s show Miss South Carolina at the Miss Teen 2007 pageant October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World”

Elon is now pitching in to help POTUS sabotage Ukraine while Trump makes a payout to Putin and works on his next self-enrichment scheme. A Cooper victory in North Carolina would be key to a potential Democratic Senate majority—a first step to reining in Trump—but the former governor warns Tim that Republicans have historically been undercounted in the polls and his lead should not be taken for granted. Plus: Scheiber in his recent book has the backstory on the radicalization of recent college grads, who tend to support the DSA and think America has too much power. And at a time when even white collar professionals identify with the working class, Trump's economic messaging sounds even more ridiculous. Roy Cooper and New York Times reporter Noam Scheiber join Tim Miller.show notes: Cooper’s campaign site Noam’s book, “Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class” JVL on Trump screwing the housing market This week’s “The Next Level” Link to send to elected Democrats on behalf of Maryam Tahmasebi and her family The Jay Kang piece that Tim referenced about Noam’s book October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store NOBL gives you real travel peace of mind — security, design, and convenience all in one. Head toNOBLTravel.com for 46% off your entire order! #NOBL #ad

Americans are living in a more dangerous world now because of Donald Trump. Not only because of his now-expanding war in the Middle East, but also through his reckless advocacy of AI. And in his desperation over the midterms, he's cut a sinister deal with Putin, the very same man helping Iran to kill Americans. Rice tells Tim this is not the time to be complacent over the good polling numbers. Just go vote. Plus, Democratic strategist Jackie Rosa checks in from South Texas on the electoral landscape there and offers up some advice on how Dems should talk to Latino voters. Susan Rice and Jackie Rosa join Tim Miller.show notes: JVL on Trump's desperate, weak deal with Putin "The Next Level" podcast out later today Tim's updated candidate list Bobby Pulido's campaign site Johnny Garcia's campaign site in TX-35 October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Not only did the lamest of October surprises blow up in the faces of Ken Paxton and the rightwing loons desperate to get Talarico on something, Greg Abbott is now in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa. And all the money pouring in to prop up Paxton could be better spent on Senate races in Alaska and Kansas. This would be a great time for the Democratic Governors Association to steer (a lot) more funding Hinojosa's way. Plus: Bill and Tim share their long shots, POTUS can't quit showing how much he's in the tank for Putin, MBS is finding out the hard way how the Trump family treats their business partners, don't be distracted by DHS's clownish authoritarianism in raiding Ilhan Omar's home, and the Iranian family that Tim has been advocating for is still in the Dilley detention center. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: Will Sommer and Andrew on MAGA's Talarico breakdown Bill in "Morning Shots" on thinking beyond the midterms Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with Ron Brownstein Brendan on the Trump superfan running in upstate New York Blake Gendebien's campaign site (NY-21) Gina Hinojosa's campaign Tim's piece on Maryam Tahmasebi and her family October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Bulwark LIVE in Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You” The Bulwark store Get 15% off OneSkin with the code BULWARK at https://www.oneskin.co/BULWARK#oneskinpod

While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing. Plus: Derek explains how AI is making our lives more expensive and ponders why people behind AI think it's the most dangerous thing in the world yet still keep trying to build it as fast as possible. And no, AI does not have feelings. Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.show notes: Derek's "The 26 Most Important Facts About AI and the Economy" Sam's interview with the guy who snitched on Guilfoyle Tim's Take on Vance discussing socialism Nate Silver on Derek's "Plain English" pod The New Yorker video, "Josh's Wedding," that Tim referenced Johnny Garcia's campaign site in TX-35 Katy Padilla Stout's campaign site in TX-23 October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off Closing song: Orville Peck's "It's the End of the World" Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20 The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store