#606: The Ratio That Signals Every Crash with Michael Howell

Marty sits down with Brian Morgenstern to discuss the state of bitcoin policy.Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBzBrian Morgenstern on Twitter: https://x.com/MorgensternNJBitcoin Voter Project: https://www.bitcoinvoterproject.org/Riot: https://www.riotplatforms.com/0:00 - Intro0:36 - We’re winning in bitcoin policy10:18 - Fold & Coinkite11:50 - Policy priorities and timeline19:36 - Unchained20:05 - Order of priority - stables before bitcoin25:53 - Amassing wins for midterms29:09 - Getting bitcoin too entrenched to ban34:00 - Bitcoinized fin products38:04 - Treasury and BitBonds47:28 - We should not fund our demise56:06 - Trump PR strategy1:06:29 - Chevron doctrineShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Newslettertftc.io/bitcoin-brief/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Jim Carucci to discuss AI as economic agents.CASCDR: https://cascdr.xyz/Jim Carucci on Nostr: https://primal.net/p/nprofile1qqsy2d24rfqzwxc9n2ujku084dlgwqqxrgkervxjpucna7p0q5htppgeluehw0:00 - Intro0:36 - Lacrosse and manifesting4:38 - Open vs centralized AI8:02 - Fold & Bitkey9:33 - LLMs and their biases13:32 - CASCDR basics17:52 - Unchained18:20 - Bitcoin AI synergy30:34 - Progress of the agentic framework36:08 - Implementations of agents41:41 - Nostr, DVMs, MCP46:52 - Open source vs panopticon51:35 - Ideal picture of future AI1:02:03 - Driving bitcoin adoption1:10:48 - PlugsShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Newslettertftc.io/bitcoin-brief/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Rod Roudi to discuss vibe coding and raising kids with AI.Rod on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rodroudi/Texas Energy and Mining Summit: https://www.meetup.com/bitcoin-park-austin/events/305924136/0:00 - Intro0:35 - Sports dads who vibe code11:08 - Fold & Coinkite12:44 - Austin convergence and meetups20:27 - Unchained20:55 - AI careers25:58 - Leveling up children’s creativity33:00 - Triple convergence39:09 - Playing with AI tools48:03 - How TFTC uses AI53:08 - Bitcoin is the safest place55:51 - Austin convergence again1:03:38 - Texas Energy & Mining SummitShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Newslettertftc.io/bitcoin-brief/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with James Lavish to discuss the large scale basis trade hanging over current markets.James Lavish on Twitter: https://x.com/jameslavishThe Informationist: https://www.jameslavish.com/Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/0:00 - Intro0:36 - Educating financial literacy7:05 - Bond Yields10:54 - Fold & Coinkite12:26 - Bitcoin decoupling and tariffs16:19 - Diving into the basis trade29:10 - Unchained29:38 - Flights to safety - Gold & bitcoin39:51 - SAB 12244:09 - Strategy48:59 - Hashprice57:15 - PlugsShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Matt Pines to discuss Skywatcher's efforts to gather empirical data on UAPs.Matt Pines on Twitter: https://x.com/matthew_pinesSkywatcher: https://skywatcher.aiBitcoin Policy Summit: https://www.btcpolicysummit.org/0:00 - Intro0:37 - US disclosure posture9:09 - Skywatcher17:13 - Fold & Coinkite18:44 - How the data is collected23:33 - Unchained24:02 - What attracts UAPs35:40 - Consciousness 54:27 - Govt psychics57:54 - Geopolitical implications & triple hockey stick1:10:41 - AI1:17:41 - Will Trump build China Lite?1:30:32 - Exopolitics1:37:09 - Is bitcoin the great filter?1:42:45 - Matt’s having fun1:48:45 - Quantum breakthrough implications2:09:59 - Bitcoin Policy SummitShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Ivan Makedonski to discuss his article "The Digit Addiction Pandemic".Ivan's Article: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/the-digit-addiction-pandemicMisty Breez: https://breez.technology/misty/Bulgarian Bitcoin Movie: https://geyser.fund/project/bulgarianjourney0:00 - Intro0:36 - Digit addiction7:28 - Digit lords10:51 - Fold & Coinkite12:23 - Shaking the addicted mind15:39 - Tragedy caused by fiat21:27 - Life as unit of account26:10 - Unchained36:39 - Getting clean from fiat31:28 - Building the bitcoin standard40:57 - Misty Breez55:20 - Speed of adoption57:47 - Go and experience bitcoin1:01:36 - Movie shillShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Jesse Myers to discuss the key behavioral mutation behind the dominance of our species over other early humans.Jesse on Twitter: https://x.com/Croesus_BTCOne-in-a-Species: https://www.onceinaspecies.com/0:00 - Intro0:36 - How Jesse’s hypothesis differs from mainstream8:19 - Szabo's shelling out and the fashion argument15:36 - Fold & Coinkite 17:14- The hTKTL1 gene27:03 - Overcoming Dunbar's Number35:24 - Unchained Event35:49 - Public record and barter42:33 - Money allowed energy aggregation51:27 - Developing more advanced money55:35 - Bitcoin is the culmination of our species’ edge1:01:39 - Fiat interregnum and bitcoin’s addressable market1:10:33 - Digital age is an accelerant1:16:34 - Final thoughtsShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Michael Howell to discuss the incoming liquidity crisis.Crossborder Capital on Twitter: https://x.com/crossbordercapCapital Wars Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/0:00 - Intro0:36 - Is liquidity crunch incoming6:13 - Explaining the crisis16:12 - Fold & Coinkite17:49 - The Fed’s ineffective measures20:39 - Powell/Trump standoff and China selling28:13 - Unchained Evernt29:37 - Digging out with better assets34:44 - Bessent's reset & BitBonds39:56 - Weimar & gold45:21 - Cutting red tape49:53 - Clear skies beyond the stormShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with James Check to discuss the game of chicken being played between the US and China.James on Twitter: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_Checkonchain: https://charts.checkonchain.com/Newsletter: https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/0:00 - Intro0:36 - Tariff bomb6:32 - Recession incoming9:30 - Fold & Coinkite11:08 - Yen/dollar devaluation game of chicken15:33 - Gold and Bitcoin’s price floor25:02 - Unchained Event25:27 - Bull case is more likely34:15 - Thesis meeting reality43:51 - Bitcoinization of finance46:59 - Bessent reset54:26 - Closing monologueShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the impact of Trump's tariffs.Tom Luongo on Twitter: https://x.com/TFL1728Tom Luongo's Website: https://tomluongo.me/0:00 - Intro0:36 - Breaking down the tariffs13:24 - Fold & Coinkite15:01 - Trump and Bessent’s messaging19:11 - EU and British psyops30:33 - Red tape is falling, corporate press floundering36:47 - Unchained Event37:12 - Helping American economy39:39 - Debt based colonialism, financial warfare48:00 - Closing the arbitrage55:33 - Prioritising the correct enemies1:01:15 - Trump media strategy 1:08:25 - Overthrowing managerial class1:14:52 - Biggest risk is a forced war1:19:38 - Deshittification1:23:56 - Bitcoin and miningShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/