Ep 255 - The Rupee is Overvalued

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Khizar about the ongoing dynamics in Pakistan's foreign exchange market, why the rupee is overvalued, and how interest rate cuts without depreciation of the currency would be a bad idea. You can read Ali's recent piece on this topic here: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40396210

In this episode, Uzair talks to Anna Twum about Pakistan’s export potential, how import tariffs hurt the export economy, and the ways in which Pakistan’s $60bn export potential can be met. Anna Twum is an economist at the World Bank and recently helped write the Pakistan Economic Update published by the World Bank. You can read the full report here: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/972c49ee47cc09d4face97b09ea64362-0310012025/original/Pakistan-Development-Update-Staying-the-Course-for-Growth-and-Jobs-October-2025.pdf Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:15 Why are exports low? 17:30 Import taxes and exports 33:20 Energy reforms 41:30 FDI for exports

In this episode, Uzair talks to Zeeshan Khattak, Commissioner at the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) about the deepening of financial markets in Pakistan and the ways in which the SECP is trying to expand access to finance at the individual and corporate level. Mr. Zeeshan Rehman Khattak joined the SECP as Commissioner in November 2024. He has over two decades of local and international experience in Real Estate Investment & Management, Regulatory Affairs, Wealth Management, and Development of Export-led Technology Infrastructure. Mr. Khattak brings rich experience in capital markets, regulatory oversight and assets’ management. Mr. Khattak’s most recent association was with Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB) as Chief Commercial Officer and additionally as Chief Executive Officer designate. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:20 SECP’s priorities 11:25 Savings via digital gold 14:20 Regulatory sandboxes 25:05 Focus on startups 27:30 Climate finance

In this episode, Uzair Younus sits down with Kamran Bokhari to unpack the implications of the landmark Mutual Defence Agreement recently signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. With both nations pledging that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” the agreement marks a significant moment in bilateral military cooperation. Uzair and Kamran explore what motivated this pact, including the evolving regional security dynamics—particularly rising tensions from recent events in the Gulf—and what this means for both countries’ sovereignty, deterrence capabilities, and diplomatic posturing.

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ashish Pradhan about the revolution in Nepal and what comes next for the country. We focused on the underlying factors that led to the outburst of protests across the country, how the royalists tried to capture power, and what the priorities of the new interim prime minister are. We also talked about the role of foreign powers in the country, especially India and China. Ashish Pradhan is Senior Adviser to the President at International Crisis Group where he supports the president's highest priorities and helps execute special projects aligning with the organisation's strategic goals. Prior to this role, Ashish served as Crisis Group's Senior UN Analyst and represented the organization at the United Nations. He previously served as Crisis Group's Nepal expert, conducting research on the post-conflict peace process. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 Structural issues in Nepal 14:30 Social media ban 22:30 Violence, army, and royalists 31:10 Sushila Karki’s priorities 38:30 Elections and Gen-Z 45:00 Role of India and China

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the ongoing economic situation in Pakistan where the foreign currency market is under strain. We discuss what is driving this shift, and how “over-extraction” is the policy focus right now in the country. We also spoke about protests in the region and what they tell us about the role of economic discontent and the limits of repression in socieities. You can read Khurram’s latest columns here: https://www.dawn.com/news/1939561/extracting-dollars https://www.dawn.com/news/1941112/three-years-three-uprisings Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Over-extraction and dollars 17:20 Why fix the dollar rate 24:10 Protests and regime collapse 36:00 Lessons for Pakistan

Uzair talks to Pranay Kotasthane about the growing tensions in U.S.–India economic relations and the difficult road ahead for deeper trade integration. We discuss what went wrong in the bilateral relationship after the high-profile Trump Modi summit, the domestic political constraints that make agricultural and dairy sector reforms difficult in India, and why India’s reliance on fiscal incentives like PLI may not be the silver bullet for manufacturing growth. We also explore whether India’s decision to stay out of RCEP was a strategic misstep, and what it would take for the country to meaningfully integrate into global supply chains. Finally, we reflect on the broader trajectory of the U.S.–India partnership and what both sides need to do to steady the course. Pranay Kotasthane is deputy director of the Takshashila Institution, where he chairs the High Tech Geopolitics Programme. He co writes Anticipating the Unintended, a newsletter on public policy, and co hosts Puliyabaazi, a popular Hindi Urdu podcast on politics, policy, and technology. You can read Pranay’s newsletter here - https://publicpolicy.substack.com/p/315-beyond-the-hype Reading Recommendations 1. Deborah A. Stone — Policy Paradox: The Art of Political Decision Making 2. Rutger Bregman — Humankind: A Hopeful Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:45 State of US-India relations 14:30 India’s Evolving foreign policy 24:10 Supporting Indian businesses 31:40 Agriculture reforms and protectionism 39:00 RCEP and its impact 48:40 Reading recommendations

Uzair talks to Dr. Irfan Nooruddin about the growing volatility in U.S.–India relations under President Trump. We discuss the impact of the 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods, the administration’s criticism of India’s oil trade with Russia, and the challenges around H-1B visas and illegal immigration. We also talk about the political constraints facing Prime Minister Modi in Delhi and what all this means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Dr. Irfan Nooruddin is the Hamad bin Khalifa Professor of Indian Politics at Georgetown University. He is the author of The Everyday Crusade, Elections in Hard Times, and Coalition Politics and Economic Development. His work focuses on democratization, international political economy, and policymaking in the Global South. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 State of play in the relationship 8:30 MAGA’s view of India 23:15 Indian right wing’s bet on Trump 2.0 30:50 What can India do to make a deal with Trump? 42:40 Impact of Operation Sindoor on US-India ties

Uzair talks to Dr. Neda Bolourchi about the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict and its key takeaways. We also talked about whether the Iranian government is secure, the chances of diplomacy working, and Iran’s future role in the Middle East. Dr. Neda Bolourchi is an interdisciplinary Middle East scholar and Associate Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers-New Brunswick. Her work includes international and comparative human rights legal analysis and foreign policy studies. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 3:00 Key takeaways 16:50 Is the Iranian regime secure? 24:45 Understand regime politics 31:05 Iran’s future in the Middle East 38:15 Reading recommendations Book Recommendations: - Total Defense: The New Deal and the Invention of National Security by Andrew Preston - Opera as Drama by Joseph Kerman - Boom Town: The Fantastical Saga of Oklahoma City, Its Chaotic Founding... Its Purloined Basketball Team, and the Dream of Becoming a World-class Metropolis by Sam Anderson

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the 2025 budget and what the government got wrong. We also talked about Pakistan’s ability to extract geopolitical rents and how this stunts the reform agenda in the country. You can read Khurram’s latest column on the budget here - https://www.dawn.com/news/1916673/thrashing-around Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:45 Budget assessment 11:10 Solar power access 20:20 Geopolitical rents and Pakistan 38:40 Conclusion