Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond

Global power demand is rising sharply, and geopolitical instability is accelerating the need for secure, affordable, and diversified energy systems. In this episode, host Joe Colletti speaks with Robert Kwan, Head of Global Power, Utilities & Infrastructure Research, and Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst, to explore how RBC Imagine themes—energy security, affordability, crisis capitalism, synthetic technologies, and shifting superpowers—are reshaping the sector.The conversation highlights how utilities, midstream operators, and infrastructure investors are navigating a world where energy transition, digital demand, and geopolitical conflict collide. As Robert notes, “this current environment is hammering home to a broad population how important energy is to everybody’s daily lives”.Key PointsGeopolitical conflict is reinforcing a global “all of the above” approach to energy supply.Rising energy prices are intensifying affordability pressures across households and industries.Hyperscalers and digital platforms are rapidly becoming dominant global electricity consumers.Utilities are investing heavily in resilience to manage climate, cyber, and grid instability risks.Synthetic technologies are improving efficiency and reducing supply‑chain vulnerabilities.Canada is increasingly well‑positioned to expand global energy exports across fuels and electricity.Massive infrastructure investment is required to deliver diversified, secure global energy systems.

Software valuations remain squeezed amid dire predictions of ‘SaaSpocalypse’. But the real future of the sector is likely to be more complex, as RBC’s recent Canadian Private Tech Conference underlined. In this episode, Software Analysts Paul Treiber (Canada) and Rishi Jaluria (U.S.) reflect on the competing visions presented at the event, and consider how AI’s impact on the sector – and other industries – is playing out.Key Points• Innovation will be the key differentiator for software companies’ survival as AI disruption continues.• AI is targeting companies’ labor budgets rather than IT spend.• Software M&A remains subdued, pending a recovery in valuations.• Power constraints are limiting the scaling of AI.Introductions [00:06]Paul Treiber introduces colleague Rishi Jaluria for a discussion about the RBC Canadian Private Tech Conference, which featured 25 differentiated tech companies.Software’s future [00:40]The conference presented competing views of AI’s impact on software. Some foresee the ‘SaaSpocalypse’, with software headcount shrinking as AI self-compounds. Others are harnessing AI to move faster and say their customers are expanding software use. Vertical software firms in regulated, workflow-dense environments are better insulated from disruption.Labor impact [03:09]Rather than eating into IT budgets, AI is cannibalizing labor. Beyond software, entire industries are being disrupted. Some believe financial intermediation may disappear.Constraints on AI [04:43]AI processing is accelerating, but memory is growing more slowly and interconnect failing to keep pace, acting as a constraint.M&A [05:15]M&A activity is subdued and will only revive with a recovery in valuations.Sovereign clouds [05:52]Sovereign clouds are seen by some as a tailwind for Canadian companies. Others believe local hosting will prove unnecessary.

With a 75-year track record under its belt, TC Energy is poised to enter a new phase of growth, thanks to a presence across North America and the growing demand for energy at home and abroad. In conversation at RBC’s Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference, President and CEO François Poirier outlines the company’s current tailwinds, and why he sees particular LNG growth opportunities for Canada.Key Points• Canada has new opportunities to meet growing global demand for LNG.• TC Energy is lifting self-imposed capital allocation limits as it seeks to grow its assets across North America.• Safety, profitability and asset reliability are closely entwined in the success of the business.

RBC's Canadian Industrials Conference in Toronto wrapped with more reasons for optimism than many expected. In this conference takeaway, Walter Spracklin, Director of Canadian Research and Co-Head of Global Industrials Research, debriefs with analysts Sabahat Khan, James McGarragle, and Matthew McKellar on the key themes that emerged. Steel producers are finding ways to mitigate U.S. tariffs, the freight recession is easing, and the most significant buzz centred on the government's nation-building infrastructure and defence plans.Key Points• Canada’s nation-building plans are boosting industrial confidence, while its defense strategy creates a tailwind for the country’s aerospace sector.• Tighter supply has helped to ease the long-running freight recession.• Steel suppliers are diversifying from U.S. exposure to mitigate trade tariffs.• Tariffs have also hit lumber hard, with supply tightening in response.• AI deployment is positioning the transport sector for operational efficiencies.Introductions [00:06]Host Walter Spracklin refers to RBC’s recent Canadian industrials conference in Toronto, which heard from 38 participating companies. He introduces three colleagues – Sabahat Khan, James McGarragle, and Matthew McKellar – to discuss the key themes that emerged.Freight recession eases [00:47]The freight recession dominated last year’s conference, but tighter supply driven by regulatory changes has lifted pricing, with positive impacts on rail too.Tariff impacts on industrials [02:05]Section 232 tariffs are creating direct impacts across steel-exposed industrials, while broader tariff uncertainty is delaying some large capital project decisions.Government plans inject confidence [04:30]The Canadian government’s new strategies on nation-building infrastructure are lifting confidence in the market. Its plans to increase defense spending and prioritize Canadian producers are seen as a potentially lasting tailwind for aerospace companies.Paper and forest production [9:36]Demand is poor and the lumber sector has been hit hard by tariffs. However, tighter supply has set up the industry for better conditions at lower levels of demand in future.AI and capital allocation [13:01]Other common themes at the conference were the deployment of AI to achieve efficiencies, especially in transport; and the disciplined allocation of capital, balancing organic growth with strategic M&A.

The expansion of power and infrastructure to support the energy transition is unfolding against a complex backdrop. Policy uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and shifting market forces are colliding with record investment and a rapidly evolving mix of technologies. Ralph Ibendahl, Global Head of Energy Transition and Co-head of Power Utilities for Europe, assesses the challenges and opportunities with expert colleagues from the U.S., Canada, and Australia.Key Points• Increasing global power demand is leading to growth across all power types and grids.• Policymakers need to balance affordability concerns with growth opportunities.• Recent deals include financing for a major nuclear project in Canada, and build-out of Germany’s grid.• Companies are drawing on a full mix of funding types, including infrastructure equity, private credit, and structured capital.• Many companies are turning to the public markets, where valuations are stronger.• RBC Capital Markets is guiding clients through this volatile market.

Life sciences is a hub of dealmaking activity. Over the past year, more than 30 transactions valued at $1 billion or more have crossed the finish line. But the picture in other segments of healthcare is more mixed. At RBC Capital Markets’ Global Healthcare Conference in New York, Darren Campili, Global Head of Healthcare Investment Banking, hosts colleagues David Levin, Ahmed Attia and Jason Levitz to explore what's driving deals and where the opportunities are heading.Key PointsHealthcare M&A is strong, with a surge of high-value deals in life sciences.Equity performance is challenging, but investors in life sciences and biotech have seen good outcomes.IPO activity has rebounded; again, life sciences and biotech are most successful.Dealmaking has been largely unaffected by regulatory uncertainty, though challenges remain on reimbursement and MFN pricing.Larger companies believe they have the edge in using AI for profitability and competitiveness.Introductions [00:25]Host Darren Campili, Global Head of Healthcare Investment Banking, introduces the podcast and guests: David Levin, Co-Head of U.S. M&A; Ahmed Attia, Managing Director, Healthcare M&A; and Jason Levitz, Head of Healthcare Equity Capital Markets.M&A strength in healthcare [01:11]The M&A market in life sciences is extremely strong. The number of $1 billion-plus deals has tripled in the past year. There has been significant activity among mid-caps as well as large-cap companies, and a diversity of premiums.Healthcare in the equity markets [13:24]In the broader context of the U.S. equity markets, healthcare is performing poorly, particularly among large-cap medtech and services companies. At the same time, life sciences and biotechs are outperforming, leading to diverse outcomes for investors.IPO activity [15:20]IPO volumes have rebounded after some disappointing years. Deal flow has centered on oncology, I&I, and CNS.Political impact [24:15]Dealmaking has continued despite uncertainty over the FDA. Tariff policy has been a net positive for U.S. inflows as pharma businesses seek U.S. capabilities. Managing reimbursement and Most Favored Nation pricing remains challenging for some.

The markets’ wild ride continues, with valuations defying high volatility. How long can the ‘up crash’ last, and what factors might bring about a correction? At RBC’s Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference, Callie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset Hedge Fund Sales, discusses the potential scenarios with Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, and Amy Wu Silverman, Managing Director and Head of Derivatives Strategy.

A deal to end the U.S.-Iran war is constantly talked up, but has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, market reaction doesn’t seem to match “the biggest physical energy disruption in history”, as Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy, describes it. At RBC’s Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference, Helima considers the prospects for a deal and what it would take to restore global oil flows once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.Key Points• Strong inventories and stockpile releases have so far contained oil prices despite the ongoing Iran conflict.• The market continues to respond to repeated signals of an imminent end to the war.• Restoring normal levels of oil flow after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened may take months.• Issues over Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief will be obstacles to a lasting deal.Introductions [00:05]John Soughan, Assistant Vice President of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, introduces Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy, in a session at RBC’s Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference.Stockpiles limit disruption impact [00:25]The U.S.-Iran war has created history’s biggest physical energy supply disruption. So far, robust inventories and stockpile releases have provided a buffer, but shortages will become more evident in coming weeks.Peace agreement fails to emerge [03:41]The White House has repeatedly suggested a resolution is imminent. Each time the market responds with a sell-off. But a deal has yet to materialize. The IRGC controls shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and is not anxious to reach an agreement.Nuclear issues will impede deal [05:56]Nuclear capabilities and sanctions relief will be obstacles to any lasting deal. Even when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, oil flows will be significantly lower than before the war began, because shippers and insurers will be reluctant to use it.Oil flows will take months to restore [09:41]The CEO of ADNOC has indicated it would take four months after reopening to return to 80% of pre-war oil flows.

Psychedelics are poised for a breakthrough in mainstream psychiatry, with high interest among physicians and patients alike. But does the infrastructure exist to deliver these treatments, given the clinical supervision required for administration? RBC’s researchers have been out in the field to find the answer. Brian Abrahams, Head of Global Healthcare Research, and Leonid Timashev, Biotechnology Analyst, reveal their findings on the practicalities of a psychedelics roll-out.Key PointsPatient and physician interest and favorable regulation signal an imminent breakthrough for psychedelics to treat mental ill-health.April’s Presidential order on accelerated research and access for veterans with PTSD is also supportive.Psychedelics raise challenges for clinical trials, but companies are finding ways to handle these.RBC’s research indicates existing clinic infrastructure is equipped to deliver psychedelics with the required clinical supervision.Introductions [00:06]Host Joe Coletti introduces the podcast and guests: Brian Abrahams, Head of Global Healthcare Research, and Leonid Timashev, Biotechnology Analyst. The springboard for discussion is the case made in the recent RBC Imagine report that a transformation in mental health treatment is imminent.Pivotal moment for psychedelics [01:06]Psychedelic drugs have the potential to deliver effective treatment for huge unmet patient need. Expert opinion at an RBC symposium indicates high physician interest, favorable pricing and reimbursement dynamics, limited generic risk, and an increasingly clear regulatory path.Executive order on PTSD [05:06]The recent Presidential executive order, sanctioning accelerated research and access in this field specifically for veterans with PTSD, is another tailwind.Risks and challenges [06:22]Psychedelic drugs raise specific challenges in clinical trials, but these are surmountable. The biggest concern for investors is the capacity to commercialize psychedelic treatments at scale, given the need for clinical supervision.Infrastructure for delivery [07:48]RBC’s research, based on clinics already delivering Spravato, suggests psychedelic treatments could be launched within existing infrastructure. Patients are enthusiastic; clinicians are already preparing for delivery.Listen and subscribe to Strategic Alternatives on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a review and share the podcast with others.

Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. Peter Schaffrik, Head of UK/European Rates & Economics, and Cathal Kennedy, Senior UK Economist, unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political landscape in the UK might look like in the months and years to come.