Is the STR Market Cooling? February Data and the 2026 Travel Outlook

The short-term rental market never moves in a vacuum—and February’s data proves it. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane and co-host Scott Sage unpack what’s really happening beneath the surface of the latest performance numbers. From a sluggish winter season to the early signals of a strong spring break, they explore how supply growth, economic trends, and even global events are shaping the STR outlook for 2026.The big story? Demand is still growing—but just barely. With supply expanding faster than bookings and occupancy declining for the ninth straight month, hosts are feeling the squeeze. At the same time, factors like weak snowfall in mountain markets, rising oil prices, and broader economic uncertainty are influencing traveler behavior in ways that could ripple into the peak summer season.But it’s not all cautionary signals. Spring break demand is pacing well ahead of last year, and major global events like the 2026 World Cup could still drive a strong travel season. Jamie and Scott break down what these mixed signals mean—and how hosts and property managers can respond with smarter pricing, better positioning, and a sharper eye on economic trends.You don’t want to miss this episode.Key Takeaways Demand is growing—but slowly. February demand rose about 1% year over year while supply increased around 2–3%, continuing the pressure on occupancy rates.Winter performance suffered in mountain markets. Poor snowfall led to weaker bookings and occupancy declines in ski destinations, dragging down overall STR performance.Spring break could reverse the trend. Early booking data shows strong demand pacing for March and April, especially in coastal markets.Economic signals matter more than ever. Slowing job growth, rising oil prices, and broader macro trends could shape travel demand in the months ahead.Global events create opportunity. Major events like the upcoming World Cup could drive significant travel demand—making strategic pricing and availability key.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/3MFteFv—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 173

STR Investor Sentiment Report 2026: Where Smart Money Is Buying NextWhat are short-term rental investors really thinking right now? In a market defined by higher rates, elevated home prices, and shifting demand, the real story isn’t fear — it’s selectivity.In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie and Bram unpack AirDNA’s first-ever STR Investor Sentiment Survey — a deep dive into the motivations, barriers, and strategies shaping short-term rental investment in 2026. With nearly 650 respondents (from first-time buyers to 10+ property operators), the data reveals a surprisingly resilient investor mindset. Cash flow — not appreciation, not tax advantages — is the dominant motivation. And experienced operators? They’re not retreating. They’re doubling down.From financing trends and regulatory concerns to where capital is flowing next, this episode breaks down what separates cautious observers from confident buyers. Whether you’re looking to scale, buy your first STR, or pressure-test your strategy, this conversation offers a grounded, data-backed look at where the industry is headed.You don’t want to miss this one.Key TakeawaysCash flow is king. The primary motivation for new investors isn’t flipping or appreciation — it’s recurring income and long-term revenue stability.Experience builds confidence. The more properties an investor owns, the more likely they are to buy again in the next 12 months.Regulation becomes real at scale. First-time investors worry about prices. Seasoned operators worry about policy risk and demand durability.Interest rates matter — but they’re not the deal-breaker. Sentiment is split, but rate anxiety isn’t stopping committed buyers.Location strategy evolves over time. New investors gravitate toward familiar urban and coastal markets. Experienced operators target durable demand drivers like mountain, lake, and national park destinations.AirDNA Investor Sentimenthttps://www.airdna.co/short-term-rental-investor-survey—————Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j0oq9T—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 172

Travelers say they’re worried about the economy — but they’re still packing their bags. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane sits down with Seth Borko, Head of Research at Skift, to unpack the 2026 travel outlook and what it really means for short-term rental hosts and property managers.The headline? Travel remains the world’s top discretionary spending priority — even in an uncertain economy. While consumers are price-conscious and navigating a “K-shaped” recovery, they’re not cutting trips. Instead, they’re choosing cheaper flights, exploring more affordable destinations, and prioritizing accommodations and experiences over everything else. For STR operators, that’s a powerful signal: the right property in the right market, positioned around the right experience, is still incredibly compelling.The conversation also dives into the rapid rise of AI in trip planning. Nearly half of U.S. travelers are already using AI tools for discovery and inspiration. While booking behavior hasn’t fully shifted (yet), personalization is accelerating — and that could reshape loyalty, distribution, and direct booking strategies in the years ahead.You don’t want to miss this episode.Practical Takeaways for STR Hosts & ManagersTravel is still the #1 discretionary spend. Even in uncertain times, consumers want to travel — they’re just adjusting how they do it.Guests are saving on flights — not stays. Survey data shows travelers are cutting airfare costs first while prioritizing accommodations and experiences. Your property still matters.Experiences drive the trip. Today’s traveler starts with “What do I want to experience?” and back-solves into destination and accommodation. Design and market your STR as part of that experience — not just a place to sleep.Affordable destinations have momentum. With travelers choosing less expensive markets, regional and domestic STR markets may benefit from trade-down behavior.AI is reshaping discovery. Travelers are increasingly using AI tools to compare destinations, activities, and accommodations. Properties with clear positioning, strong differentiation, and well-structured listing content will win in AI-powered search.Loyalty may be redefined. As personalization improves, guests may be more willing to switch brands or platforms if the offer is better. Value, flexibility, and frictionless booking will matter more than ever.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/44x842m—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 171

Is 2026 shaping up to be a breakout year for short-term rentals — or another year of mixed signals? In this January market review, the STR Data Lab team unpacks early indicators that could define performance for the rest of the year, from rising bookings and shifting travel patterns to economic tailwinds and major event demand. For hosts, property managers, and investors, these first-month signals offer critical clues about where revenue opportunities — and risks — are emerging.While occupancy dipped year over year due to continued supply growth, bookings surged at one of the strongest rates in months, signaling healthy future demand. Coastal destinations are seeing robust early reservations ahead of spring break and summer travel, while urban markets are experiencing a surprising boost driven largely by anticipation of the upcoming World Cup. Meanwhile, mountain and ski destinations are facing headwinds from a weak Western snow season — a reminder that hyper-local factors can still outweigh national trends.The episode also zooms out to the economic backdrop shaping travel demand: job growth, disposable income, inflation trends, tax policy changes, and even larger tax refunds. The takeaway is clear — when people have money in their pockets, travel follows. Add in the potential windfall from major events like the World Cup, and hosts across many markets could see outsized revenue opportunities if they prepare early.You don’t want to miss this episode if you’re planning pricing, investments, or strategy for 2026.Key TakeawaysBooking momentum matters more than current occupancy. Strong forward bookings suggest healthy demand ahead even if winter performance looks weak.Coastal markets are leading early for spring and summer travel. Hosts in beach destinations should prepare for competitive pricing and high demand.Major events create spillover demand beyond host cities. Nearby markets may benefit from travelers extending trips around large events.Mountain market performance is highly weather-dependent. Diversifying seasonality strategies can reduce risk in ski destinations.Economic conditions are turning favorable for travel. Rising disposable income and tax refunds could fuel increased bookings in 2026.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6rRMahttps://www.airdna.co/worldcup—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 170

What if the biggest opportunity in your STR business isn’t higher ADR or better occupancy — but who actually owns your guest relationship?In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with Arthur Colker, CEO of StayFi, to unpack one of the most under-discussed levers in short-term rentals: guest acquisition costs and repeat demand. As OTAs continue tightening control over guest data and shifting fee structures, hosts and property managers are left asking an important question — are we building a business, or renting one?Arthur breaks down why tracking guest acquisition costs, collecting first-party data, and building a direct booking channel isn’t just about avoiding platform fees. It’s about increasing total occupancy, improving booking windows, and creating long-term resilience. From practical strategies for smaller operators to how advanced hosts are reaching 60%+ direct bookings, this conversation reframes direct booking as a growth strategy — not just a defensive move.If you’ve ever wondered whether investing in your brand, email marketing, or direct booking site is worth it — this episode delivers clarity.You don’t want to miss this episode.Practical Takeaways You Can Apply NowThink beyond the booker. Every guest in the reservation is a potential future customer. Expanding your marketing mindset beyond the primary booker unlocks new repeat and referral opportunities.Consistency beats perfection. A simple monthly email — even plain-text and personalized — can outperform polished newsletters. The goal is to stay top of mind when guests are ready to book again.Direct bookings increase total occupancy — not just margins. The real ROI isn’t only saving OTA fees. It’s filling nights that would otherwise sit empty.Build a brand, even if you’re small. Whether you have one property or ten, guests need an identity to remember. For smaller operators, your personal story and hospitality voice are the brand.Control your pricing strategy. Advanced operators often price higher on OTAs and reward direct bookings with better value — flipping the script from dependence to leverage.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4rYGQvP—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 169

What happens when one of the largest centralized property managers in short-term rentals meets a deeply local, franchise-driven model? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA’s Chief Economist Jamie Lane sits down with Steve Schwab, CEO of Casago, to unpack one of the most consequential industry shifts of the past decade: the Vacasa–Casago merger.Steve shares an honest, behind-the-scenes look at how the integration is unfolding — from transitioning thousands of homes and teammates to rethinking how scale, culture, and accountability actually work in hospitality. The conversation goes beyond headlines to explore why local ownership, empowered teams, and owner-centric decision-making may be the antidote to the operational strain that has challenged large STR operators in recent years.Along the way, Jamie and Steve dive into franchise economics, technology complexity, churn as a health metric, and the often-underestimated skill that separates top-tier operators from the rest. Whether you’re an independent host, a growing property manager, or an industry professional watching STR evolve in real time, this episode offers a rare perspective on where the business is headed — and what it takes to build something that lasts.This is one conversation that will change how you think about scale, leadership, and success in short-term rentals — you don’t want to miss it.Key Takeaways You Can Apply TodayLocal ownership matters more than ever: Empowered, in-market operators create stronger relationships with homeowners, guests, and communities — and reduce churn.Scale isn’t just about size: Breaking operations into locally accountable units can avoid the “dis-economies” that plague centralized models.Technology complexity is the silent killer: From PMS integrations to revenue management and accounting, STR operations are far deeper than they appear — especially in year one.Churn is a health check, not just a metric: Monitoring churn at both the market and portfolio level reveals operational and cultural issues early.The best operators know when to say no: Curating the right inventory, homeowners, and guests is often what separates top-performing property managers from underperformers.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4qjPZNU—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 168

Is 2026 shaping up to be the most compelling year for short-term rental investing since the post-pandemic boom? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane and co-host Scott Sage break down the newly released 2026 Best Places to Invest report — and explain why smart investors may finally see the odds shifting back in their favor.After several challenging years marked by high home prices, rising interest rates, and uneven STR performance, the data is starting to tell a more optimistic story. Jamie walks through the core metrics behind AirDNA’s rankings — including investability, demand momentum, revenue growth, and regulatory viability — and explains why yield, not hype, is driving today’s best opportunities. The result? A list that favors overlooked small and mid-sized cities, infrastructure-driven demand, and markets where affordability still creates room for returns.The conversation also explores how investors can tailor their strategy using price-tier analysis and demand drivers like universities, national parks, and major infrastructure projects. Rather than chasing “vacation-only” destinations, this episode challenges listeners to rethink what makes a strong STR market — and how to build a repeatable investment thesis using data, not instinct.You don’t want to miss this episode if you’re planning your next STR investment.Key Takeaways2026 may mark a turning point for STR investing as yields improve and financing pressures ease.Yield matters more than ever — especially in markets with lower home prices and steady demand.Small and mid-sized cities continue to outperform, driven by infrastructure, workforce, and extended-stay demand.Price-tier analysis unlocks opportunity, showing where returns change dramatically at different budget levels.Demand drivers like universities and national parks create resilient, diversified booking patterns beyond traditional vacation travel.Best Places To Invest:https://www.airdna.co/best-places-to-invest-in-vacation-rentals—------------Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4s2G7tf—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 167

2025 was anything but predictable for short-term rentals. After a surprisingly strong start, the second half of the year told a very different story — and the December data brings that contrast into sharp focus. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane is joined by Bram Gallagher to break down the final U.S. performance numbers and what they reveal about the state of the STR industry heading into 2026.From weakening occupancy to long-awaited ADR growth finally outpacing inflation, the conversation unpacks why topline stability masked huge disparities beneath the surface. While national averages ended the year nearly flat, many operators experienced dramatic wins or losses depending on where they operate, who they serve, and how they’re positioned. The episode also explores how broader economic forces — cooling labor markets, mortgage-rate volatility, and a K-shaped economy — showed up clearly in STR performance.Looking ahead, Jamie and Bram dig into pacing data for early 2026, uncovering encouraging signs for spring break and summer travel, especially in resort markets. They also discuss what easing mortgage conditions and stabilizing occupancy could mean for investors considering their next move. Whether you’re managing one property or a growing portfolio, this episode helps cut through the noise to understand what really drove performance — and what to watch next.You don’t want to miss this episode!Key Takeaways for STR Hosts & Operators2025 was a tale of two halves: Strong performance early in the year gave way to declining occupancy in the back half, despite modest ADR gains.Averages hide extremes: While national occupancy finished flat, nearly half of major markets saw meaningful gains — and others saw steep declines.Luxury outperformed across the board: Higher-priced listings consistently captured stronger (or less negative) occupancy than budget properties, reinforcing the K-shaped economy.Resort markets led the way: Coastal and mountain destinations posted the strongest occupancy and ADR growth, while urban markets continued to struggle.Early 2026 signals are improving: Spring break and summer demand are pacing well, lead times are stabilizing, and easing mortgage conditions may unlock new investment opportunitiesYear End Review:https://www.airdna.co/blog/us-review-december-2025—————Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/3Yz8mlS—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 166

What if one of the biggest opportunities in rentals isn’t short-term or long-term — but everything in between? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with Jeff Hurst, CEO of Furnished Finder and former President of Vrbo, to unpack why midterm rentals have quietly become one of the fastest-growing segments in the housing market — and why so many investors still misunderstand them.Drawing on newly released AirDNA data and Furnished Finder’s on-the-ground experience, the conversation explores how demand for 30+ day stays has more than doubled since 2019, fueled by relocating families, healthcare professionals, construction crews, academics, and a growing need for flexible living. Jeff explains why midterm rentals aren’t just “discounted short-term stays,” but a fundamentally different asset class — with different pricing logic, tenant expectations, and operational realities.From regulation and affordability to investor accessibility and tech gaps, this episode reframes how STR hosts and property managers should think about midterm rentals — not as a fallback, but as a durable, scalable third pillar of the rental economy that’s still early in its evolution.You don’t want to miss this episode.Key Takeaways You Can Apply TodayMidterm demand is surging: AirDNA data shows stays of 28+ days are up 138% since 2019 — outpacing short-term rental growth by a wide margin.It’s a different business model: Midterm rentals price closer to long-term housing, prioritize functionality over flash, and often book one stay at a time with frequent extensions.The strongest demand drivers are practical, not leisure: Think hospitals, universities, construction corridors, and suburban job centers — not vacation hotspots.Lower capital, lower friction investing: Midterm rentals often require less upfront furnishing, fewer turnovers, and significantly less day-to-day management.The category is still early: With limited tech infrastructure and minimal institutional saturation, midterm rentals today resemble short-term rentals circa 2008.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4jcZdsL—————Monthly Rentals: The Hidden Gem of Housing—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 165

Is the short-term rental industry struggling — or simply growing up? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane sits down with Simon Lehmann to unpack what “normalization” really means for STR operators, investors, and property managers heading into 2026. After years of explosive growth, the industry is entering a new phase — one defined less by expansion and more by execution.Simon shares why demand hasn’t collapsed the way headlines suggest, why strong operators are still thriving, and why the biggest shift happening right now is in expectations. Growth rates, margins, and valuations are resetting — but that doesn’t spell trouble. Instead, it’s forcing a long-overdue focus on discipline, systems, and unit-level profitability. As competition intensifies and margins compress, professionalism is no longer optional.The conversation also dives into technology and AI, exploring why the future isn’t about more tools, but fewer — and better — ones. From fragmented tech stacks and data silos to the elusive “source of truth,” Jamie and Simon explain why operators who master their data will be best positioned to survive (and win) in the next chapter of STRs.You don’t want to miss this episode if you’re planning for 2026 and beyond.Key Takeaways from This EpisodeNormalization ≠ downturn: The STR industry isn’t collapsing — growth expectations and return profiles are simply resetting.Execution now beats expansion: We’ve moved from a growth story to a selection story, where strong operators pull ahead.Professionalization means discipline: Systems, process rigor, and unit-level economics matter more than portfolio size.Margins are under pressure: Rising costs and regulation make revenue management and cost control essential skills.Tech stacks must simplify: The next wave of STR tech will focus on integration, AI-driven insights, and a single source of truth — not more point solutions.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4jcZdsL—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Scott on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 164