The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Survivor’s Boston Rob)

Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a game of Good Call / Bad Call. Then, they cut through the chatter over a modern masculinity crisis and get into the data. Is there really a crisis among men? Is it better to be a woman in 2025? Further Reading: Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s from NYT The ‘Boy Crisis’ Is Overblown from NYT For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss a topic they’ve been texting about for years: Does your name determine who you become? Further Reading: You can find more about David and his writing on his website, https://davidepstein.com/. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so important to play to win. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far? Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sales to China for the US government Further Reading: Ethical Issues In Advanced Artificial Intelligence by Nick Bostrom, 2003 SuperIntelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom, 2014 For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A radical thought experiment transforms the lives of a new breed of philanthropists, as they follow the logic of altruism to extraordinary lengths. The most famous convert to the Effective Altruism movement, Sam Bankman-Fried, is either a humanitarian hero, a con artist at an astonishing scale, or most bafflingly, both. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. Get ad-free episodes, plus an exclusive monthly bonus episode, to Cautionary Tales by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad? Further Reading: AI Action Plan  Zvi Mowshowitz America’s AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend Erik Seidel, who taught Maria to play the game. He talks about the camaraderie of the poker world, and shares his personal “no suffering” rule. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world where conspiracies are sometimes real? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs? This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed. Further Reading:David Zweig’s book is An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.