Pressure Points: Apple 4Q’26 Earnings

Investors are missing the bigger point: Apple’s December revenue guidance was better than the Street expected. That’s more important than slightly softer margin guidance.P.S. Ternus doesn’t want to talk about personalized agents. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Amazon's message received: we’re an AI company. Don’t worry about bots threatening retail, AWS will be on fire for years. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Google Search had a tough September quarter and they’re not out of the woods yet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

FSD is at an inflection point and traditional auto doesn’t have an answer. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The stars are lining up for Elon to fully realize his vision of SpaceX being a vertical AI company, with the odds of a Tesla merger increasing. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The “Welcome Home” announcements today should add just under 1% to FY27 revenue. More important is the accelerating pace of product announcements. The “Home” segment represents new revenue for Apple, but the biggest incremental consumer opportunity over the next five years is personalized bots, a category in which Apple has yet to make any announcements, as it’s just getting the Siri chatbot out the door. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I expect shares of Meta to be flat to down on the Meta Connect keynote, given we didn’t get much on Muse adoption. What we got that was important is Zuck’s vision that all that matters to the company long term is Muse. Bad news for Google. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I went into today's Apple event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Get ready for an AI tsunami. Nvidia’s CY27 revenue guide means the AI brain next year will be about 40% bigger than I thought 24 hours ago, which means the distribution will be greater than I previously expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com