What trends will shape 2026?

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation.2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countries, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have outpaced political and regulatory responses. At the same time, political violence, democratic backsliding and public dissent have intensified while humanitarian crises and genocide continue to expose the limits of existing multilateral responses.Against this backdrop, global power is fragmenting as supply chains are being reshaped, economic nationalism is on the rise, and geopolitical competition is increasingly defining how states engage with one another.Tune in as we explore how dynamics of technological disruption, economic stress and geopolitical realignment are redefining cooperation and what realistic shifts could help strengthen global governance and collective action as we move into 2026.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalComfort Ero, CEO, Crisis Group Sir Vince Cable, Former Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Distinguished Fellow, ODI Global Dr. Urvashi Aneja, Founder, Digital Futures Lab Related resourcesDonors In A Post-Aid World December 2025 updateThink Change episode 61: what trends will shape 2025?How geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping finance for emerging markets

After one of the most challenging years for the humanitarian system, Sudan offers both a stark warning and a source of new thinking. This episode of Think Change examines how local actors are reshaping aid around solidarity, dignity and community leadership.Sudan’s crisis is unfolding at an extraordinarily difficult moment. Since violence escalated in April 2023, state institutions have collapsed, essential services have disappeared and millions have been displaced. Yet despite the scale of suffering, the conflict has remained one of the world’s least visible, receiving minimal political attention and limited media coverage.But as formal systems fell away, communities themselves stepped forward. Mutual aid networks – most prominently the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – have grown out of Sudan’s long history of neighbourhood organising and now play a central role in protecting civilians, coordinating life-saving assistance and sustaining basic services. Operating as volunteers with scarce resources, they have become the only functioning governance structures in many areas.At the same time, global recognition of their efforts is growing. The ERRs’ innovation and courage have earned nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize in both 2024 and 2025, highlighting not only the impact of their work but also the larger challenge they pose to international actors: to reconsider power, legitimacy and the role of civic leadership when states can no longer function.With Sudan’s future hanging in the balance, the questions are urgent. What does genuine locally led leadership look like in a moment of institutional collapse? How can global actors support community-driven resilience without undermining it? And what might the ERRs’ example mean for the future of humanitarian action worldwide?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalAlsanosi Adam, External Communications Coordinator for the Emergency Response Rooms of SudanLuka Biong Deng, Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Peace, Development and Security Studies; Former National Minister of Cabinet Affairs of Sudan & Minister in the Office of the President of South SudanDenise Brown, United Nations Resident Coordinator in Sudan Freddie Carver, Director, Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI GlobalRelated resourcesFrom 'ego-systems' to 'ecosystems': renewing humanitarian action (Publication, ODI Global)ODI Global and NEAR's advisory panel on the future of humanitarian actionODI Global's Sudan resources hub

Online misogyny is becoming a defining feature of digital life, amplified by algorithms and enabled by platforms that fail to protect users. As violence against women intensifies across online spaces, the stakes for gender equality and for democracy itself have never been higher.Violence online is surging at a moment when digital spaces should be becoming more inclusive. Algorithms reward outrage, platform design obscures abuse, and hostile online communities allow those who target women to organise and radicalise. As a result, violence that begins online increasingly spills into public life.But the consequences go far beyond individual harm. Abuse aimed at women in politics is already deterring them from seeking re-election, while global progress on gender equality is slowing. With governments struggling to regulate fast-moving platforms and profit incentives working against user safety, digital spaces are becoming sites where exclusion is reproduced at scale.With the stakes rising, the questions are pressing. What is driving this rapid escalation in online misogyny? How are design choices and political inaction enabling it? And what would it take to turn digital spaces into environments that strengthen equality rather than deepen exclusion?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalSasha Havlicek, CEO & Founder, Institute for strategic dialogue Seyi Akiwowo, Author, How To Stay Safe Online and Founder 21/20 StudiosDiana Jiménez Rodriguez, Senior Research Officer, ODI Global Related resourcesHidden in plain sight: how the infrastructure of social media shapes gender norms | ALIGN PlatformDigital sexual violence against women in Mexico: role of the Olimpia Law in transforming underlying gender norms | ALIGN PlatformSocial media, violence and gender norms: the need for a new digital social contract | ALIGN PlatformDrivers of tech-facilitated GBV in Mexico: A behavioural research study in Oaxaca and Estado of México | ALIGN PlatformWhy online safety policies and digital advocacy are essential for women’s political participation | ALIGN PlatformBreak the bias to challenge gender norms on social media | ODI Global

World leaders are heading to the Amazonian city of Belém this month for COP30, as Brazil aims to deliver the most consequential climate summit in years.This year’s negotiations come at a difficult moment. Concerns around trade relations and national security are dominating the political landscape, whilst a resurgence of disinformation has also pushed climate to take a back seat. But every five years, the Paris Agreement compels nations to reveal their progress and ambition. Brazil’s COP30 Presidency is expected to launch a landmark plan to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for low-income countries, while negotiators refine how to measure adaptation goals and resilience. At the same time, a rising wave of anti-environment and anti-gender movements threatens to undermine global commitments.With the world’s biggest emitters under scrutiny, the questions are urgent. What does real success look like in Belém? Can climate ambition survive amid political headwinds? And how can global diplomacy steer the transition toward a fairer, more resilient world?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalEhsan Masood, Bureau Chief, Africa and Middle East, Nature Helen Mountford, CEO, ClimateWorks Foundation Sinead Walsh, Principal Research Fellow ODI Global Related resourcesODI Global at COP30 (Resources hub, ODI Global)Country Platforms (Project, ODI Global)From Washington to Belém and beyond: a new era for climate finance (Expert comment, ODI Global)

This episode examines the shifting landscape of Palestenian statehood as recognition spreads and new peace initiatives test the future of governance and diplomacy.Momentum around Palestinian self-determination is building. Following a landmark summit chaired by Saudi Arabia and France on the margins of last month's UN general Assembly, the UK formally recognised Palestine, with nine other countries soon following suit. At the same time, Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan for Gaza, proposing a “Board of Peace” led by Tony Blair to oversee governance, demilitarisation and reconstruction.With recognition spreading and new peace initiatives on the table, some welcomed, others highly contested - the questions are urgent: What do these developments mean for Palestinian statehood? How can governance be structured to support stability, rights, and accountability? And what is the role of international diplomacy in shaping a just and lasting peace in the region?Guests:Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalNimer Sultany, Reader in Public Law, SOAS University of LondonNomi Bar-Yaacov, international negotiator, arbitrator and mediator Sultan Barakat, Professor in Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, Hamad Bin Khalifa UniversityRelated resources:Gaza and the 'day after' – international protection for reconstruction (Expert comment, ODI Global)Israel-Gaza crisis (Our topics, ODI Global)Stop the siege, stop the starvation – political gestures won't save Gaza (Expert comment, ODI Global)Political economy: an antidote to outrage on Gaza (Expert comment, ODI Global)Three key takeaways from UNGA 80 (Expert comment, ODI Global)

This episode examines the evolving role of philanthropy in shaping global development cooperation at a time when official aid is under strain.According to the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad), global official development assistance (ODA) hit a record $223.7 billion in 2023. But many governments are cutting back under pressure from debt, Covid recovery, and domestic priorities.At the same time, needs are exploding: climate adaptation could cost $300 billion a year by 2030, and low-income countries already spend more on debt than on health and education combined.Philanthropy is being called to step up. But what should that look like? Beyond filling gaps, can foundations help reshape systems themselves – and do so with accountability and long-term impact?Guests ask what lessons we can take from the Gates Foundation's bold decision to double its annual spending – with a plan to disburse $200 billion over 20 years before closing down. Could it spark a new model of North-South cooperation?We hear how philanthropy can complement shrinking aid flows, address structural inequalities, and respond to emerging challenges – from climate shocks to pandemics to debt crises in the Global South.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalAlice Albright, Former Chief Executive Officer, Millennium Challenge CorporationGargee Ghosh, President, Global Policy & Advocacy, Gates FoundationAlexia Latortue, ODI Global Board Member & Former Assistant Secretary for International Trade and Development, US Treasury DepartmentRelated resourcesDonors in a Post-Aid World (Project, ODI Global)What’s next for global cooperation? (Event video, ODI Global)Can multilateralism be saved? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)The case for development in 2025: exploring new narratives for aid in the context of the EU’s new strategic agenda (Report, ODI Global)The future of aid (Resources hub, ODI Global)Climate-responsive social protection: A primer for philanthropy (Report, ODI Global)

From the suffragette movement and the fight against apartheid to today’s campaigns for climate justice and Palestine, what defines legitimate protest? And who gets to decide?This episode explores the contested politics of protest through history. We examine what happens when legal and political channels for change are blocked, and how states respond when protest challenges entrenched power.As politicians celebrate historic acts of civil disobedience while criminalising modern movements, we ask: who gets to decide what counts as legitimate protest – and how will history judge us?Helen Pankhurst CBE, Chancellor of University of Suffolk and great grand-daughter of iconic suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst, discusses what we can learn from shifting attitudes to protest movements over time. We hear from Chief Executive of Amnesty International UK Sacha Deshmukh, who explains why proscribing Palestine Action sets a dangerous precedent for criminalising peaceful protest. And Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou (Director of Politics and Governance programme, ODI Global) assesses how definitions of 'protest' are shaping grassroots movements globally.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalSacha Deshmukh, Chief Executive, Amnesty International UKKathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director of Politics and Governance programme, ODI GlobalHelen Pankhurst CBE, Chancellor of University of Suffolk; Convenor of Centenary Action and Advisor to CARE International

The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) is under way at a time when the UN faces existential challenges.Established 80 years ago to safeguard peace, foster cooperation and uphold the rights and dignity of all people, today the very foundations of the UN’s mission are being tested by various global trends: intensifying geopolitical rivalries, the climate crisis, record levels of forced displacement, eroding trust in multilateralism, and a systematic disregard for international humanitarian law – as is being witnessed in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere.The UN80 initiative was meant to generate fresh ideas and commitments to revitalise the organisation for the future. But the results so far have been limited – more a patchwork of incremental reforms than the kind of bold transformation many hoped for.As world leaders gather in New York for UNGA, this episode examines the credibility crisis facing the UN, and whether it can deliver the ambitious and urgent reforms needed to respond to today's fractured global order.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalHeba Aly, Director of Article 109 (formerly known as the UN Charter Reform Coalition) & Facilitator, ODI Global's Donors in a Post-Aid World (dPAW) dialogue seriesFreddie Carver, Director, Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI GlobalNatalie Samarasinghe, Executive Director of the Public Engagement Platform for climate action; Co-founder of the 1 for 8 Billion; CEO of the United Nations Association-UKRelated resourcesODI Global on UNGA 80 (Resources hub, ODI Global)Overcoming the obstacles to UN reform (Op-ed, Project Syndicate)Donors in a Post-Aid World (Project, ODI Global)What role should donors play in a post-aid world? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)The future of global humanitarian action (Event video, ODI Global)What’s next for global cooperation? (Event video, ODI Global)

The soaring cost of capital for many low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa, is one of the most urgent and overlooked development challenges.High borrowing costs are hindering vital investments in energy, infrastructure, food security and public services – threatening development progress and deepening global inequality.But this decisive year for Africa could present opportunities for reform. South Africa is hosting the G20 Presidency – a first for an African country – whilst the next African Development Fund replenishment is due in November.In this critical moment, guests examine what it would take to make development finance fairer, more affordable and aligned with African countries' priorities. We hear about the political choices and practical mechanisms that could create a system that is more effective and better equipped to respond to today's challenges.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalValerie Dabady, Manager, Resource Mobilization and Partnerships Department, African Development Bank Hanan Morsy, Deputy Executive Secretary and Chief Economist, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Bright Simons, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI GlobalRelated resourcesInvestor Herding and Spillovers in African Debt Markets (Report, American Economic Association)Tackling the 'cost of capital' crisis in small vulnerable nations (Policy Brief, ODI Global)How can development financing be reformed? The road to Seville (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)On borrowed time? The sovereign debt crisis in the Global South (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)

Despite fractured politics in the US (and elsewhere) around foreign aid, Congress recently reauthorised plans to fund PEPFAR – the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief – even though the programme itself has not been formally reauthorised.Since being established in 2003, PEPFAR funding for prevention, care and treatment programmes is estimated to have saved over 26 million lives. It's one of the most successful global health initiatives, and against all odds it remains a symbol of bipartisan cooperation.But this moment raises bigger questions about what comes next. How sustainable is a model that depends so heavily on political will in the Global North? How can countries in the Global South set their own agendas? And how will increasingly polarised US politics shape PEPFAR's future, especially on issues around sexual and reproductive health and rights?Guests dissect these questions and examine how PEPFAR and the wider global health architecture must evolve to meet today’s urgent challenges.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief ExecutiveElizabeth Campbell, Executive Director, ODI Global WashingtonDoris Macharia, President, Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS FoundationFionnuala Murphy, Head of Global Advocacy, Frontline AIDSRelated resourcesPEPFAR Latest Global Results & Projections Factsheet (Dec. 2024) (US Department of State)Frontline AIDS welcomes the news that PEPFAR will be spared from US cuts to aid (Frontline AIDS statement)How do US policy changes target transgender rights and undermine democracy? (Insight, ODI Global)