Fireside Chats – US: Soft CPI, Fed Implications and Politics

In this episode of our MacroBrew fireside podcast series, we talk with George Moran from the European Economics team about Norway and Sweden with their currencies trading near multi-year lows. We discuss whether the macroeconomic outlook justifies the currency weakness, and how will the Riksbank and Norges bank respond.

In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with Charnon Boonnuch from the Asia Economics team about Thailand after its recent election results. We discuss how much of a surprise the Thai election result was for markets, whether there will be a meaningful impact on economic policy and what this all means for the Bank of Thailand. 

In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak from the European Economics team about the ECB and BoE views. We discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.

In this MacroBrew episode, we discuss the US debt limit with Craig Chan from the FX Strategy team, Aichi Amemiya from the US Economics team and Samira Fazili from the Public Policy and Government Affairs team. We also explore political risks and the impact of the debt limit on FX and rates markets.

In our latest Fireside Chats podcast, we speak with Charlie McElligott, Managing Director - Cross Asset Strategy, to ask him if the strong US data is a macro game changer. We discuss whether the latest data surprises will impact the US outlook, how far the rates re-pricing can go and where the next market narrative could fall.

In this podcast, we talk with Ting Lu, our Chief China Economist from the Asia economics team to ask him if China’s reopening is running full steam ahead. We discuss how much of a growth and inflation bounce back we can expect from China’s reopening, the impact of government policy, the potential for a credit growth rebound, and what this means for the PBOC.

In this episode of Fireside Chats, we talk with George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak from the European Economics team to discuss if the ECB will be the last major central bank hiking in this cycle and their ECB policy outlook with consideration to the latest growth, inflation and labour markets data.

In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook. We discuss why the potential for a long recession awaits and how inflation might be more structural than we think, how Asia will possibly come out of 2023 leading the later recovery, and what black swans and grey rhinos keen readers should keep an eye on that could possibly upset the apple cart.

In this episode of Fireside Chats, we talk with George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak from the European Economics team on how hot inflation will be going into the new year to keep the ECB and BOE hiking for longer, what decisions the ECB and BOE will make this week and the key risks heading into 2023.

In this episode of Fireside Chats, we speak with our US Economists about Rob Dent and Aichi Amemiya on what the weak CPI number means for the Fed, markets and of course a recap on the midterms too. We also discuss the potential path of CPI and how results from the midterms could impact markets going forward.