Trade Links (episode 14) Is tariff confusion a feature of international trade?

Tariffs are supposed to be a cost businesses can calculate. But with US trade policy changing rapidly, the bigger challenge for exporters and importers may be knowing which tariff will actually apply when goods arrive.In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore the economic impact of tariff uncertainty and what it means for businesses making cross-border investment and sourcing decisions.The conversation then turns to another major challenge for Europe: the growing impact of Chinese industrial overcapacity, increasingly described by economists as “China shock 2.0”. As Chinese exports move further up the value chain, the panel considers whether Europe faces not simply a trade challenge, but the potential hollowing-out of its industrial ecosystem.5 key takeaways1. Tariff uncertainty can be as damaging as tariffs themselvesBusinesses are accustomed to dealing with tariffs. The problem is that the rules are now changing so quickly that companies may struggle to know what their costs will be when goods actually arrive.An order can be negotiated today, placed next week, shipped a month later and cleared through customs weeks after that. Knowing today’s tariff is therefore less useful if the rate could change before the transaction is completed.2. The US tariff regime has become deliberately complexMore than 50 separate US tariff announcements were made during 2025, according to research discussed in the episode. Rates, exemptions and the rules governing them have continued to evolve.Scott argues that the fluctuating communication around tariffs should not necessarily be viewed as accidental. Instead, uncertainty can provide negotiating leverage and give the US administration greater “optionality” when dealing with trading partners.Legal challenges add another layer of uncertainty, with multiple cases contesting the basis for different US tariff measures.3. Confusion can cause businesses to put trade decisions on holdThe economic impact of tariffs doesn’t necessarily require trade to stop altogether. If companies cannot confidently predict their costs, they may delay orders, postpone contracts or stick with existing suppliers rather than take a risk on a new trading relationship.The impact may be particularly pronounced in more transactional markets, where suppliers can easily be substituted. Long-standing strategic supplier relationships may be more resilient because replacing them is harder.4. China’s industrial capacity could become Europe’s next major trade challengeScott introduces the concept of the “grey rhino”: a high-probability, high-impact event that is visible in advance but insufficiently acted upon.Aastha identifies China’s growing industrial capacity as one such threat. Weak domestic demand in China, combined with greater US protectionism, could encourage more Chinese exports towards open markets such as Europe.And this isn’t limited to low-cost consumer goods. Chinese companies are increasingly competitive in areas including EVs, batteries, machinery, chemicals and sophisticated industrial equipment.The concern is that sustained competition could eventually weaken the wider European manufacturing ecosystem, affecting suppliers, investment, skills and industrial know-how.5. Europe faces a difficult balancing act between growth and resilienceChinese competition does not affect every European country or company in the same way.Manufacturers competing directly with Chinese products may see the situation as a threat, while companies using Chinese steel, batteries or other components may benefit from lower input costs.That creates a difficult policy trade-off for the EU: maintaining access to Chinese investment and inexpensive inputs while reducing strategic dependencies.The panel describes this shift as moving from “decoupling” to “de-risking” – not ending trade with China, but reducing vulnerabilities in strategically important areas.What to watch in future:Egypt and Ethiopia: Scott highlights renewed tensions over Ethiopia’s plans for additional dams on the Nile. China’s oil inventories: Aastha is watching evidence that China’s crude imports may be softening after a period of significant stockpiling, including purchases from Russia. Speakers:Tim Phillips, HostAastha Gupta, European Economist, Economics & Market StrategyScott Livingstone, International AdvisorThis episode was recorded on 19 August.Please view our full disclaimer here (https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html)All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlAll details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Global trade is increasingly being shaped by geopolitics rather than economics alone. In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to examine two stories that illustrate this shift.First, the panel explores the rise of the so-called shadow fleet – a network of vessels transporting sanctioned oil from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. What began as a workaround to sanctions has evolved into a parallel shipping system that now carries a meaningful share of global crude exports. The discussion looks at how these networks operate, why they have proven so resilient, and what tougher enforcement by European governments could mean for global trade.The conversation then turns to ASML, the Dutch company whose lithography machines sit at the heart of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Following US concerns that one of ASML’s most sophisticated machines may have reached China, the panel discusses why these machines have become strategic geopolitical assets, how export controls are reshaping global technology markets, and why governments increasingly view supply chains as instruments of national power.Together, the two stories highlight a common theme: the fragmentation of the global trading system, where commercial decisions are increasingly influenced by security, technology and geopolitical competition.What to watch:US trade policy: With several important deadlines approaching, the next phase of US tariff and trade policy could have significant implications for global commerce.EU-China trade relations: European policymakers are increasingly debating how to respond to rising imports from China and the long-term competitiveness of European manufacturing, with important policy decisions expected later this year.SpeakersHost: Tim PhillipsGuests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist)Scott Livingstone (International Advisor)Subscribe, leave a review, and join us for future episodes as we continue to unpack the world’s evolving trade landscape.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlSubtitles automatically generated.Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify.This episode was recorded on 17 July 2026.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlAll details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Since 2020, governments across the US, Europe and the UK have promoted re-shoring, near-shoring and friend-shoring as ways to strengthen supply chains, create jobs and reduce strategic dependence on China. But how much of this shift is genuinely bringing industry home, and how much is simply reorganising global trade? In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to separate the headlines from the underlying data. In this episode: Is re-shoring really happening? Aastha explains how industrial policies such as the US CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act have channelled hundreds of billions of dollars into semiconductors, electric vehicles and clean technology. However, the evidence suggests that the re-shoring story is more complicated than political messaging implies: * Many supply chains remain heavily dependent on imported components.* Production is often being rerouted through intermediary countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rather than returning home.* New investment frequently represents additional capacity rather than relocation of existing manufacturing.* Foreign firms are increasingly establishing local operations in Europe and North America. The result is less a wholesale return of manufacturing and more a gradual reconfiguration of global supply chains. The jobs question Large investment announcements often promise tens of thousands of jobs, but the panel highlights an important distinction between construction employment and long-term operational jobs. Capital-intensive sectors such as semiconductor fabrication, battery production and clean technology require enormous upfront investment but relatively modest permanent workforces. The discussion asks whether today’s industrial policy is delivering broad-based reindustrialisation or simply targeted support for strategically important sectors. Friend-shoring: Trading with trusted partners Scott explores the rise of friend-shoring, where countries prioritise reliability, integrity and political dependability over lowest-cost suppliers. Examples include: * US–Vietnam trade ties* Europe’s engagement with Saudi Arabia* UK partnerships focused on critical minerals The conversation examines how governments increasingly define “friends” through commercial resilience and strategic interests rather than shared political systems. The costs of resilience Re-shoring and friend-shoring may strengthen supply security, but they also come with trade-offs. Economic costs include: * Higher production costs* Significant public subsidies* Potential inflationary pressures* Reduced efficiency from fragmented supply chains Political challenges include: * Greater fragmentation of the global trading system* Managing increasingly transactional international relationships* Questions over credibility when values-based foreign policy collides with commercial interests US–China relations: Spin versus substance The panel also revisits recent US–China engagement following President Trump’s visit to Beijing and ahead of a planned follow-up meeting in September. Key questions include: * Was the visit a diplomatic success for both sides?* Did any meaningful structural agreements emerge?* Could September bring progress on tariffs, rare earths or technology controls? The panel concludes that recent engagement has largely focused on stabilising tensions rather than resolving fundamental disputes. What to watch Aastha’s radar: The growing use of “shadow fleets” transporting sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran is creating an increasingly opaque parallel trading system, raising questions about sanctions effectiveness and transparency in global commerce. Scott’s radar: Military exercises around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea this summer warrant close attention. Demonstrations of capability by Taiwan, China, NATO and Russia all carry the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation. Speakers Host: Tim PhillipsGuests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist)Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) Subscribe, leave a review, and join us for future episodes as we continue to unpack the world’s evolving trade landscape. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Subtitles automatically generated. Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify. This episode was recorded on 17 June 2026.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlAll details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

What’s Next for UK Real Estate?To close this season of Property Perspectives, we zoom out and look ahead. Richard Pickering, Foresight Director at Cushman & Wakefield, joins us to connect the dots across every real estate sector we’ve explored—from residential and industrial to retail and the office.Alongside NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman, Richard unpacks the megatrends shaping the built environment, including ageing populations, hybrid working, AI-driven supply chains, and the evolving role of cities.Bringing together insights from across the series, this episode explores how UK real estate could fundamentally change over the next 10–20 years—and what that means for investors, occupiers, and communities.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to revisit two major trade stories shaping the global economy: 10 years on from Brexit, and one year after the US “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.The discussion explores how trade relationships have evolved, where economic frictions remain, and why geopolitics is increasingly influencing global commerce. Brexit – Ten Years On1. UK–EU trade has stabilised, but at a lower levelUK goods trade with the EU remains around 10–15% below its pre-Brexit trajectory in volume terms, even though trade values have recovered due to inflation and higher prices.Manufacturing sectors including automotive and chemicals continue to struggle, while food and agriculture recovered after an early shock but remain more volatile.UK services exports have stayed resilient overall, largely thanks to growth in non-EU markets such as the US, masking weaker EU performance.2. Non-tariff barriers remain the biggest drag on tradeAlthough Brexit avoided tariffs, businesses continue to face customs paperwork, rules-of-origin requirements, and border checks.These non-tariff barriers are estimated to create costs equivalent to 7–10% tariffs on goods trade.Smaller exporters have been disproportionately affected, with some firms deciding exporting to the EU is no longer commercially worthwhile.3. Political and economic pressures are encouraging closer alignmentThe UK and EU are increasingly pursuing pragmatic cooperation in areas such as energy, customs data sharing, food standards, and youth mobility.Sectors including agri-food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and electric vehicles could benefit significantly from regulatory alignment.Broader geopolitical pressures — including Russia’s aggression and uncertainty around US policy toward Europe — are creating incentives for deeper UK–EU cooperation without full reintegration.One Year After US “Liberation Day” Tariffs1. The tariffs were dramatic politically, but economically less effectiveUS headline tariff rates jumped from roughly 2.5% to over 20%, levels not seen for more than a century.In practice, exemptions, carve-outs, and negotiations reduced the effective tariff burden closer to around 10%.Despite the scale of the announcements, the US goods trade deficit widened rather than narrowed over the following year.2. Tariffs changed behaviour more than outcomesCompanies accelerated imports ahead of tariff implementation before reducing volumes once measures took effect.Firms adapted supply chains through rerouting, exemptions, and alternative sourcing strategies.Businesses increasingly shifted from “just-in-time” supply chains to “just-in-case” inventory models, embedding higher costs into global trade.3. Trade has become a geopolitical weaponCountries responded with bilateral negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, supply-chain diversification, and efforts to avoid provoking Washington.China’s restrictions on rare earth exports highlighted the strategic importance of trade choke points and critical supply chains.The panel argues that the world is entering a more fragmented era of globalisation, where resilience and geopolitical alignment increasingly matter more than pure economic efficiency.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

What’s shaping the UK’s residential property market as conditions continue to shift?In this episode of Property Perspectives, Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman are joined by Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills, to unpack a residential market characterised by uncertainty and competing pressures. With interest rates higher for longer, mortgage availability tightening and build costs continuing to rise, they explore what this means for house prices, transaction volumes and affordability.The conversation also examines regional disparities, demographic challenges and the impact of the Renters Rights Act on landlords, tenants and investors, offering a grounded, research‑led perspective on the forces reshaping UK residential real estate — and what to watch as the market adjusts.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

How has the industrial sector evolved into one of the UK’s most resilient and in‑demand real estate asset classes?In this episode, Newmark’s Steve Sharman and Seb Moseley join NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to explore what’s driving industrial today. From automation and power requirements to supply, tenant demand and long‑term structural trends, they discuss why industrial has proven so resilient — and what that means for investors, developers and occupiers looking ahead.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

How are office markets evolving across the UK — and what’s really driving rents, demand and regional divergence? In this episode, JLL’s John Woodger and James Devany join hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to cut through the noise. They compare trends across London and key regional cities, explore shifting occupier expectations, and reveal what these changes mean for the future of UK offices.NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive of New River, REIT, joins NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to unpack the major forces reshaping the retail real estate landscape.NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined again by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore an unprecedented scenario in global trade: what happens when both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are compromised at the same time? With escalating tensions in the Middle East and warnings from the Houthi movement, the team considers the far-reaching consequences for energy, food security and global supply chains. They also talk about Donald Trump’s delayed China trip, and how energy security and supply chain resilience will likely overshadow traditional trade topics like tariffs and soybeans.Lastly, they ask the dreaded question: What’s on the Trade Links radar?Clue: fertiliser shortages impacting Brazil and India, potential pressure on Cuba from the US, and rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify.This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026. All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html