From ClawdBots to Sauna Bros: Silicon Valley in 2026

While Jess is off being “Davos-famous,” the squad kicks things off with the classic California vs. New York debate. From there, it’s straight into AI and VC chaos: absurd mega-seed rounds that break portfolio math, why even a great early bet like Anthropic wouldn’t return a seed fund, and a revisit of Sam’s view that there are only two ways to win right now—(1) have a real secret and stay capital-efficient, or (2) own the narrative. Dave flags a new “walkout culture” in AI, where executives jump ship the moment incentives shift. The crew then debates whether AI is actually shaping ideas or just polishing them (a fancy spellcheck?), why the question matters more than the answer, and how personal, computer-driving “Clawdbots” feel inevitable and maybe exactly where Apple should be headed, despite the security concerns. The episode rounds out with The Information's breaking news on Apple's AI pins, shrinking subscription moats and business-model shifts, plus detours into the New York Times’ sauna-bros piece, Sam’s WTF Conference protest merch, Super Bowl plans, and more.Chapters:01:00 – Hello Davos listeners!03:42 – SF vs. New York: where VC actually wins05:41 – The seed valuation "fairway" vs bloated-roads10:07 – Anthropic & OpenAI: good wins, but bad seed returns11:58 – AI founder drama: mercenary teams & narrative fundraising13:53 – Did Claude write its own constitution?15:18 – AI as spellcheck on steroids21:01 – Ralph: autonomous AI agent loop24:03 – What ClawdBot really is; symphony orchestrator26:51 – The Information breaks: Apple’s AI wearable pin; are phones getting tired?29:02 – The rise of “orchestra compute” and hacked APIs31:44 – Subscription models are at risk: Whoop, Eight Sleep, Peloton, Apple41:18 – The New York Times' feature on Sauna Bros44:53 – Sam's WTF Conference merch & Montana shooting plans46:34 – Squad's Super Bowl plansWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/AgwMFLjxQa0Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

AI, AI, and more AI. Do you even live in Silicon Valley if you’re not talking about it every episode? This week, we go deep on how open-source vibe-coding tools are starting to replace the need for traditional SaaS contracts. Dave shows (and tells) how he used the open-source “Claude bot” to reverse-engineer his Mural photo frames and spin up a better web UI in under 30 minutes. Brit test-drives Anthropic’s new Cowork, auto-mapping the entire seed VC market while it runs her browser, and celebrates how much these agents are boosting household productivity. Sam loves the power but calls local agents a massive security backdoor, argues trust will consolidate with Apple and Google, declares that “software is not a business,” and announces we’ve officially entered the fart-app era of AI toys. Jessica flags rising panic among SaaS vendors. Don’t miss Sam’s hot-chick analogy and Brit’s Pop Corner to close it out 😉Chapters:02:05 Vibe coding week: Anthropic's Claude Code & Cowork05:25 Dave's Reverse-engineering Mural frames08:30 AI Agents as a security nightmare12:03 AI’s Napster moment18:43 Software is no longer a defensible business24:00 Sam's investing: Quiet AI businesses or narrative ownership29:27 Offline's Seed alpha in illegible spaces33:06 When will platforms start to block APIs and protect their business?35:27 Shopify Founder and CEO, Tobi's Tweet on modern UI for MRI reading 43:34 GLP-1s & grocery spend45:06 The Information's Wealth tax poll result48:55 We're in the fart-app era of AIWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/2q99bDO-a1EConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

The squad is back for 2026 with updates: Dave’s Montana “Snow Report” (spoiler: none), Brit’s contrarian love letter to CES, and Sam’s new “serious 40-year-old” fashion era. We go rapid-fire through the biggest headlines from the past few weeks we were offline—OpenAI’s health app, China cutting off the H200, and a wave of 2026 liquidity from SpaceX and AI that could mint centi-billionaires, or even trillionaires. Sam unpacks his viral 2026 memo, returning to a familiar theme from the pod: why narratives now matter more than reality, why seed should fund “infinity stories,” and how AI is turning software into consumable media. We also dig into the hot topic of the week—California’s wealth tax and founder flight—plus AI partners, Claude-code mania, real-world clinical AI, America’s hat discourse, and one very specific New Year’s resolution (PS: this is why Sam is wearing a collared shirt). Welcome back to More or Less.Chapters:01:04 Morin's Weather Report from Montana01:51 CES Corner: The Squad Yucks on Brit's Yum05:43 The Information: Breaking China's H200 ban (US Vs China Tech Trade War)07:22 Quick Recap: Gifting Etiquette for VCs10:00 2026 liquidity wave: Trillionaire era15:35 California's new wealth tax: Its losing out on the liquidity20:05 Sam’s 2026 memo: narratives > reality, seed strategy, and end of the SaaS era31:23 AI companions vs real-world relationships (embodiment over abstraction)48:52 OpenAI Health deep dive56:00 Sam’s new style (and hygiene routine) for 2026We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/DMEDrOnLAGMConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

The pod signs off for the year with its final episode—a sharp, chaotic recap of last year’s predictions and a fresh round of hot takes for 2026. Sam and Dave, unsurprisingly, wing it: Sam calls a single $500B+ IPO (SpaceX), Google up, NVIDIA down, and Meta hitting new highs on AI-powered ads. Jess warns that AI-driven efficiency will fuel layoffs (especially in journalism) and that CapEx hype is outrunning reality. Dave predicts a boom in third places and games-first IP, while Britt bets on an Apple comeback, AI wearables as daily “life summarizers,” a breakout AI-native social app, and a celebrity licensing their AI twin. True to form, the crew goes off script to debate Amazon’s rumored $10B OpenAI deal, AI as the new UI, which model builders survive, regulation looming over prediction markets, “slop” as word of the year, GLP-1s going mainstream, creators eyeing Emmys, and much more. Chapters:01:50 Morin’s “Nauti or Nice” Holiday Card04:06 Sam’s 2025 Predictions: Bitcoin, Solana ETFs, Crypto Government Adoption05:16 Britt’s 2025 Predictions: Amazon Marketplace, Elon’s “TITS,” Swift Engagement07:52 Dave’s 2025 Predictions: Data Centers, Material Flow Robotics, Crypto Clarity10:18 Jess’s 2025 Predictions: TikTok U.S., Vertical Stacks, Media Copyright, GLP-1s11:40 2025 Themes: “Slop,” AI Talent Wars, Government–Tech Ties12:58 Big Tech Check-In: Apple Loses Ground, Google’s Delta13:41 Amazon’s $10B OpenAI Bet and Chip Diplomacy16:16 Britt’s 2026 Predictions: Apple Comeback, Wearable Agents, AI Talent Deals21:45 Jess’s 2026 Predictions: AI-Driven Layoffs, Liquidity Wave, Prediction Market Regulation28:57 Dave’s 2026 Predictions: Third Places, Games-First IP, Roblox Scrutiny36:17 Sam’s 2026 Predictions: One $500B+ IPO, Nvidia Down, Google Up, Meta ATH44:13 AI Is the New UI: SaaS UX Moats Under Pressure49:35 Does AI Adult Content Go Mainstream?50:04 Dave on Google Doppl and AI Try-On Tech51:28 Britt’s Pop Corner: Taylor Swift Album and Pregnancy Speculation52:19 Industry Wish List: More DPI, Kids’ Mental Health, Waymos EverywhereWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/ehO3wIio7NwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

This week’s a big one: the squad kicks it off with Starlink on planes, Zoox vs. Waymo, and YouTube’s skinny bundle before taking the big swing — data centers in space as the emerging SpaceX-IPO narrative. Sam and Dave break down the real entrepreneurship skill: tell the huge story, earn the trust multiple, and consistently deliver “20 cents on the dollar” to keep the flywheel of cash spinning (re: Elon Musk and Sam Altman but thread lightly, you don't want to end up like Elizabeth Holmes or Sam Bankman-Fried). Jess celebrates a win with The Information after getting CNBC to correct their reporting. Then they touch on how the backlash against AI is growing as the 101 billboards fill up with more AI company ads. From Sorkin’s 1929 zeitgeist to smuggling Nvidia chips into China to “IPO everything and pray the American economy survives,” it’s never a dull episode with Brit, Dave, Jess, and Sam. Stay tuned for next week’s 2026 predictions… and drop yours in the comments.Chapters:05:50 Netflix vs Paramount - Who's going to win the deal and is this an Inverse AOL-Time Warner?16:56 Golden Globes nominees and Disney+'s Taylor Swift docuseries17:49 Bundling unbundling YouTube’s skinny bundle and sports21:29 Starlink on planes = fewer redeyes24:55 Zoox vs Waymo28:15 Space GPUs and the data centers in space33:57 The modern entrepreneurship skill: narrative flywheel41:38 Jess’s and The Information's win correcting CNBC's refuted chip story46:04 AI narrative in China vs US47:16 AI backlash: energy prices, water restraints, and kid's mental health52:06 The 101 Billboard Bubble Index57:17 Will the SpaceX, OpenAI, Anduril, or Anthropic IPOs save the economy?58:30 Sorkin’s book predicted the AI bubble?We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/RiKVJD_3ziMConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Bitcoin’s down, so the Lessins turned down the heat and pulled out their winter gear. The More or Less squad jumps from SF’s drone-powered crime-fighting memes (Daniel Lurie’s “no drugs” moment) to how creator-content strategy now drives real deal flow. Jess says 2026 will split the AI tide (we unfortunately did have to touch on AI), with Meta’s missing enterprise story dragging its CapEx dreams, while AWS is suddenly courting founders again. From Apple’s design chief Alan Dye jumping to Meta to questioning whether OpenAI’s “code red” was a decoy, the squad never misses when it comes to the latest thinking in Silicon Valley.Buy Slow's Modern Etiquette book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5Chapters:Chapters:01:10 Kudos to SF Mayor, Daniel Lurie!07:14 Doom scrolling on a Garmin watch12:34 Holiday gift guides: AI robots, Duolingo piano, Matic vac mop, etc14:30 The creator-VC playbook 21:27 Instagram RTO 5 days per week leadership reality check22:08 Alan Dye leaves Apple for Meta 26:09 Jess' 2026 prediction: The Big Tech divergence is coming27:46 Meta’s enterprise gap28:46 AWS outreach to Sam: Bedrock Nova and startup credits31:45 Sam Altman's code red memo -- is it a decoy?33:51 Gemini latency vs GPT why speed matters for Brit (Ad opp?)44:39 Is Aaron Levie for or against AI?46:40 Waymo's safety report and Dave's FSD usage51:21 Recapping the Slow holiday party + Offline's next58:28 Slow's Modern Etiquette Book plug (Link to purchase: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5)We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTubeConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Pre-Thanksgiving chatter from the Lessins’ Surf Shack: Jess, Brit, Dave, and Sam pinball from holiday-card automation to trillion-dollar AI geopolitics. Brit trades Minted for Canva+GPT, Jess admits to maintaining a 600-row address spreadsheet, Sam unveils Slow’s Etiquette Book, and Dave still can’t believe we can’t pay in USDC. Don’t worry this year's Thanksgiving edition will live up to its hype, the crew gets into the real stuff too: Google’s TPU push vs. Nvidia’s moat, Meta reportedly buying billions in TPUs, whether Google can shave 10% off Nvidia’s revenue, and more.Chapters:06:45 The San Francisco consensus and Silicon Valley’s real innovation marketing11:10 Elon Zuck and megaphone-powered distribution14:30 Why interface distribution will decide AI winner17:20 Memory isn’t real lock-in switching between ChatGPT and Gemini21:40 OpenAI’s identity crisis: Apple-style computer vs Meta-style attention26:30 Google complex vs OpenAI complex how the narrative flipped29:10 Google TPUs vs Nvidia Meta’s rumored buying spree33:20 AI infrastructure economics depreciation CapEx margins36:00 Macro vs micro elections risk cycles 40:10 DOE’s Genesis Mission and where the analogy breaks44:00 OpenAI's Jony Ive device timeline48:30 Why distribution still beats novelty53:15 Final takeaways: marketing distribution and business-model warsWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/7BbWHm3KODwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Jessica kicks things off with Brit’s five-hour Brit-chella extravaganza—red latex, Light Balance blackout choreo, Ke$ha surprise, and more. The crew checks in on Jessica’s IG detox, TikTok's new "self control badges", ChatGPT launching group chats, Google Gemini taking the lead, and why “just be Google” might be the winning AI brand strategy as AI melts into UX. Sam calls 2026 OpenAI’s make-or-break year and trashes their consumer subscription thesis; Jessica argues ad/commerce is the only viable lane. Markets stay frothy (Nvidia), hyperscaler debt risk rises, the White House preempts 50-state AI chaos, and Coinbase x Kalshi turns prediction markets into a spectator sport. Meme corner closes the loop and a possible Femme-etiquette school spinoff make its debut.Chapters:00:37 Intro and Brit-Chella Recap10:33 Jessica’s Instagram detox check-in and what changed15:59 TikTok’s anti screen-time badges17:48 ChatGPT launches group chats; why Meta missed its chance20:51 Google Gemini takes the lead in the AI race23:37 OpenAI’s monetization problem; no one buys the consumer story29:14 Just be Google — higher brand credibility, revenue streams, and distribution39:33 Breaking: Nvidia earnings are still growing43:14 White House EO to preempt state AI regulation; why federal matters48:06 Coinbase and Kalshi prediction markets, culture, and compliance53:12 Meme Corner: RIP 6–7, hello 4156:03 Make SF Dress Up Again: Femme-Etiquette SchoolWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/ahZTkLfJTykConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

The squad is complete again! We get into AI wearables: rings, necklaces, even earrings, after Dave hints his stealth ring startup is almost ready. Waymo quietly rolls out SF–San Jose service (still no freeways), while private-jet owners email senators about the shutdown. The squad goes over Andy Rubin’s humanoid robotics launch, Sam’s backwards Panopticon sign, Apple’s Issey Miyake iPhone “sock/pocket,” and that Slow’s etiquette school is now getting international interest. We wrap with Janitor AI’s romance boom, Sam building an AI kids-podcast pipeline with ElevenLabs, Brit wanting McConaughey to voice romance, Jess taking an Instagram detox, and more.Chapters:01:18 AI in interior design and AI slop; Why AI commerce still feels broken04:59 Apple week iPhone Air vs Pro08:49 Wearable AI flood Ray-Bans, rings, and other wearables15:32 Jess deletes Instagram and maybe email21:05 Multitasking vs focus23:32 Andy Rubin’s new robotics company27:15 SORON reveal and home deterrence roadmap29:15 Military research to practical deterrent systems30:29 Panopticon conference room and GDPR simplification32:29 Waymo expansion and route quirks35:35 Apple Issey Miyake iPhone pocket sock38:40 Slow's Etiquette Finishing school goes global44:50 The Lessin Family AI generated kids podcast49:06 BBC scandal media bias and blowback54:12 Lawfare the financialization of lawsuitsWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/pA20Sk63yYEConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

It’s Etiquette Finishing School Day at Slow Ventures, Sam dials in from the Four Seasons in a Brioni suit to recap Slow’s first-ever Etiquette School—covering caviar bumps, sommelier tips, and the “low heart rate” approach to leadership. The crew argue that etiquette now matters in tech because trust is scarce and “PMF-only” is an outdated YC-era story. Jess also unpacks details from Apple’s Gemini deal, Sequoia’s leadership shuffle, Anthropic’s latest numbers, and crypto’s meme-driven chaos. Watch till the end for free No Kings and Queens of Corbet protest tees from Sam.Chapters:02:33 Etiquette Day at Slow — Sam’s recap from the Four Seasons07:00 Why etiquette matters for founders in 202513:20 Apple x Google: Gemini to power Siri17:24 Apple’s AI strategy: Restricting Spend on AI20:04 LLMs vs search the new user behavior shift27:40 Sequoia’s leadership handoff36:44 Meme coin corner Jelly’s 400M rise and community-led products47:55 Waymo swarms El Camino AI meets the real world50:30 Sam's "No Kings and Queens" merchWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/zv4VdtKpQQkConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit