Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

The full quad is back and we're getting right into the tech drama: AI backlash (from Reese Witherspoon to everyday skepticism), breakthrough science like CRISPR entering its “it actually works” era, and major power shifts across tech — from Apple succession chatter to Jensen Huang’s leadership moments and the brewing battle between OpenAI and Elon Musk. They squad digs into SpaceX IPO dynamics, the rise of “traces” data as the next AI battleground, and what happens when AI gives more people the power to build. Chapters:0:17 — Welcome Back: Full Quad Edition1:07 — Creatine, AI Stuffies, and the Opening Chaos4:37 — Breakthrough Prize & CRISPR Finally Working5:47 — One-of-One Gene Therapy Becomes Real7:07 — The AI Backlash Is Real8:47 — UBI vs. Meaning: The Real Debate10:57 — Jensen’s “I Didn’t Wake Up a Loser Today” Moment12:47 — Apple Succession: Tim Cook → John Ternus16:17 — Asset Prices vs. Reality21:17 — Elon vs. OpenAI: The Trial27:07 — SpaceX IPO: Biggest in History?29:27 — xAI, Cursor, and the $60B Bet36:07 — Traces Data: The Next AI Battleground40:07 — Workplace Surveillance & Employee Data48:27 — Who Gets to Build? (6B Users vs. 50M Builders)51:07 — AI: Equalizer or Concentrator?We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/bjePLXg64n0Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

SpaceX might be the biggest IPO ever but there’s a math problem no one’s pricing in. Once you factor in capital gains, you need to believe it’ll underperform the market by ~50% just to justify selling. That creates an invisible floor under mega-cap stocks and a market increasingly detached from reality. Meanwhile: Allbirds goes from $4B to $40M and pivots to “NewBird AI.” Seed valuations hit $175M — 3x YoY, above 2021 peak. And AI labs are allegedly planting stories on each other. This week on More or Less: SpaceX’s $19B revenue / $5B losses, the AI bubble, Anthropic $800B rumors, and why fund math is breakingChapters:0:00 — Waymo vs. Uber: the autonomous tipping point8:29 — Allbirds: $4B → $40M → “NewBird AI”12:56 — Boom Supersonic and the data center pivot15:17 — SpaceX IPO: bulls vs. bears16:14 — The tax problem no one is pricing in20:16 — Can mega-cap still 50x?26:47 — SpaceX breakdown: Starlink vs. launch28:20 — Anthropic $800B rumors30:08 — OpenAI vs. Anthropic: leaks and competition31:08 — The model switching problem (no real moat)33:36 — AI behavior shift: “ask the agent”38:17 — AI labs running oppo research40:05 — Seed valuations surpass 2021 peak42:00 — Fund math is brokenWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/FQ5TEs_3Dq8Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch breaks down the explosive rise of AI agents and what it means for the future of software infrastructure. He joins the Morins to unpack why Anthropic cut off OpenClaw users, why the SaaS subscription model is breaking down, how agents are reshaping cloud infrastructure, and why a new wave of “supergeniuses” (from neurosurgeons to 17-year-olds) are building things no one thought possible. Plus: dreams.md, the future of personal agents, and why agents are becoming the new computer.Chapters:00:42 Intro: Guillermo Rauch, CEO and Founder of Vercel01:48 Vercel Explodes 5X Growth and AI Traffic Surge03:51 Why Anthropic Shut Down OpenClaw Users04:47 Coding Agents Are the Path to AGI07:57 70 Percent of Vercel Traffic Is Now AI09:50 SaaS Is Dead Pay Per Token Takes Over13:16 Anthropic vs OpenClaw Closed vs Open Agents14:47 The Hidden Risk of AI Data and Training16:38 Why Everyone Wants Their Own AI18:08 The Shift to Agent Native Infrastructure19:45 Vibe Coded Apps Are Going Viral21:42 The AI Wars Anthropic OpenAI Elon23:15 Dreams md Self Improving AI Agents25:44 Memory Theory of Mind and Agent Intelligence28:05 Your AI Should Travel With You30:00 Enterprise AI and Domain Expert Agents31:15 How Vercel Became an AI Native Company33:06 Hiring in the Age of AI Agents36:03 The Rise of Supergeniuses38:10 Inside Slows Creator AI Hackathon40:06 AI Agents Are the New Customers41:18 Moving Up the Stack Again42:05 What Happens in the Next 12 Months43:48 AI Will Break Cloud and SecurityWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/f43JCxhKLEgConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Sam Lessin accidentally emailed 40 of Silicon Valley's most important people using an AI bot — and that one mishap reveals everything broken about the AI security model right now. In this episode, Sam and Dave Morin (calling in from ClawCon Tokyo) argue that AI agents are quietly dismantling every security assumption the internet was built on: from open-source package trust chains to content moderation walls to the entire premise of software moats. Meanwhile, Jessica Lessin shares her own Claude Code disaster that proves even careful people are one 'approve' click away from chaos. The team also tears apart OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, debate whether 10 million software developers are about to become irrelevant, and explain why a professional skier in Alaska just built the app she'd been pitching for two years — in a single afternoon.Chapters: We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/Gv-VUTGVNT8Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Jess and Brit take the reins on this week's More or Less — and they're not exactly missing their husbands. They're joined by Henrik Werdelin (Audos), who's building a platform that takes solo founders from zero to funded company using AI agents, and Ben Broca (Polsia), a literal one-human, zero-employee founder who argues AGI is already here. What follows is a sharp, funny debate about whether solo "donkeycorns" are the future of entrepreneurship, where AI actually hits its limits, and why defensibility in an AI world might come down to the most analog thing of all — knowing yourself and the humans you serve.Chapters:1:05 — Britt & Jess take over More or Less3:15 — Meet Henrik Werdelin (Audos) & Ben Broca (Polsia)5:00 — The Donkeycorn Era: Solo founders making millions with AI8:15 — "AGI Is Here" — Ben's case for one founder, zero employees10:30 — Jess vs. Ben: "My Claude can't remember" / "Skill issue"17:00 — When AI suggested fecal transplant businesses (Henrik's wild early experiments)19:00 — Relationship Capital: The real moat in an AI world23:00 — Building an economy, not a tool — Ben's vision for Polsia25:30 — Will AI democratize opportunity or just commoditize it?32:00 — Bot Etiquette: When your AI emails psychics on your behalf40:00 — The Sora Shutdown: "It's all just electricity"42:30 — Is speed the only moat? Anthropic vs. OpenAI46:30 — The Brain Gym: Why knowing yourself matters more than ever52:00 — Wrap: SpaceX IPO, Aura IPO, and "Me, My Customer, and AI"We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/x5ybaEqOEsUConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

It’s going to be a dense episode on OpenClaw—and another classic example of how skeptical Sam is about its future, battling against Dave. The episode starts with Dave’s announcement: The OpenClaw Foundation is now a chartered Delaware nonprofit. Then: GTC. Jessica hits the floor, takes seven selfies, and watches Jensen go for three hours with no notes. Dave explains why Nvidia gave OpenClaw 30 minutes of keynote time: NemoClaw, OpenShell, enterprise guardrails, local models, on-prem everything. Jessica breaks down The Information’s story about a rogue AI agent tripping internal security at Meta—which becomes the perfect setup for a broader point: trust isn’t a feature; it’s the entire game. Then Apple. BitRig—built by the people who literally created SwiftUI—has been stuck in App Store review since November because Guideline 2.5.2 says apps can’t download and execute code that changes functionality. The security logic tracks. Apple’s selective enforcement history? Less so. The crew closes with the part nobody’s ready for: Morin’s 11-year-old just formed his first LLC for a vibe-coded iOS game, and a group of 12-year-olds at an AI school in Austin out-shipped every adult developer at ClawCon.Chapters:02:14 - NVIDIA GTC Preview & Episode Roadmap02:54 - The Rise of the "Master of Bots" Role04:39 - Bot Anxiety & the Luxury AI vs. Cheap AI Divide08:55 - NVIDIA GTC: Jensen as AI's Storyteller-in-Chief17:21 - Nemo Claw, OpenShell & NVIDIA's Big OpenClaw Moment23:02 - What Even Is OpenClaw? Sam Challenges Dave29:51 - Breaking News: Rogue AI Agent Triggers Meta Security Alert38:54 - OpenAI's Enterprise Pivot & the Anthropic Revenue Race43:00 - Apple vs. Vibe Coding Apps: The App Store Bottleneck51:34 - Kids, Claws & Cool Family Tech (Board.fun, Next Playground)We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/PYJawV55QcUConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

It’s an AI-heavy episode with real stakes: Jessica digs into OpenAI’s evolving approach to shopping and why “closing the loop” on commerce could be the proving ground for consumer monetization. The group sparrs over charts: OpenAI vs. Anthropic annualized revenue, what “slope” investors actually care about, and whether Anthropic’s developer-first strategy (code, tokens, and high ARPU) is the smarter path than consumer mindshare.Sam argues that “intelligence” is heading toward a global, frictionless commodity market (bad for margins, great for usage) and introduces the idea of “dark pools” (proprietary access/data/relationships) as the only durable moat. Dave counters with the more optimistic take: AI is collapsing the line between “consumer” and “developer,” turning everyone into a builder, and launching a new creative medium (with examples spanning from software to film). Brit adds fuel with “nano-targeted” commerce and a tour through A16Z’s Top 50 GenAI web products list, highlighting both mainstream shifts and the internet’s… more ‘unexpected’ categories.Finally: a truly out-of-left-field deal pitch from Jess: should someone buy the Tennis Channel for ~$1B? Plus a rapid-fire pop culture close (Kelce’s return, Oscars bets, and what everyone’s watching) before Sam heads back to the sauna.Chapters:0:00 — Intro & Sam's Sauna Hat1:33 — First-Ever MOL Podcast Ad3:54 — ChatGPT's Shopping Pivot7:19 — The Chart: OpenAI vs Anthropic Revenue11:52 — The Slope: Linear or Super Linear?16:10 — Commerce Is Bad. Attention Is Good.19:04 — AI Is Turning Everyone Into a Builder20:15 — "$1B Raised, $900M spent on Inference"23:17 — AI Is Worse Than the Cable Business35:58 — Dark Pools: Death of the Open Marketplace40:45 — The P50 Problem: What Happens to Average People?42:38 — "Software Is Totally Commoditized"45:43 — Brit's Bot Corner: Anime Husband Chatbots 50:44 — Should You Buy the Tennis Channel for $1B?54:22 — Pop Culture CornerWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/moreorlesspodOn demand reactions powered by AI: https://molchat.ai/ Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

This week the squad breaks down the Anthropic vs OpenAI drama (Fire Sam Altman is trending again), debates whether Apple is quietly winning the AI race by spending $0 while everyone else burns $100 billion, and confronts the question no one in Silicon Valley wants to answer: why aren't 200,000 software engineers talking about losing their jobs? Sam's answer: "Because it would be to admit you're in the 200,000 getting fired, not the 200,000 getting paid more." Plus: is China winning the open source AI phenomenon, is a recession coming (Lux Capital thinks so), and how Sam believes “code is just content” despite having built six apps in a week while on conference calls, including an AI clone of the podcast using everyone's real voices. It’s your weekly dive of More or Less. Chapters: 1:30 — Fire Sam Altman Trending Again: Dario's Leaked Slack Memo10:15 — Sam's Vibe Coding Week: 6 Apps Including AI Versions of the Hosts17:00 — Why AI Content Tends to Zero20:00 — Apple M5 Chip: The Local AI Inference Play23:30 — Block Cuts 40% of Workforce 25:30 — Will 200,000 Bay Area Software Engineers Lose Their Jobs? 30:00 — "Code Wins Arguments — But Now Everyone Can Code"34:30 — Josh Wolfe's (Lux Capital) Recession Warning Email 36:30 — The Triangle Trade: DC, Silicon Valley & Wall Street's Narrative Collusion39:00 — Yemen/Houthi Strike & Defense Tech41:00 — Is Open Source AI a Chinese Phenomenon?46:00 — The Second Wave: Agents Are the Website of This Era49:00 — David's Protein Ice Cream We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/UIdKqkNCymQConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Starting with a mini celebration: Dave defends his ski racing crown, before Sam declares software dead and capitalism broken. Even among GPs at Upfront Summit, the mood is uncertain: nobody knows whether to invest in software anymore, and many are quietly struggling to raise.The debate heats up over whether AI will democratize software creation or just accelerate capitalism's race to zero margins. Sam argues that when intelligence becomes abundant, it becomes worthless, making the entire AI industry, and by extension Silicon Valley, "pretty bad business." Dave counters that we're about to see a Cambrian explosion of software creators, finally giving billions of people agency over their digital lives.Plus: whether Stripe should buy PayPal during this opportunistic Trump-administration window, Gen Z panic-buying original iPods, Sam's shitposting-to-funding pipeline, and whether OnlyFans has the best KYC in fintechChapters:7:24 - Upfront Summit: Where Are All the LPs?10:49 - Are VCs Still Investing in Software?12:04 - Slow Ventures Going Contrarian: Investing While Others Freeze13:27 - When Intelligence Goes to Zero: Why AI is Bad Business15:53 - Polsia: $100K to $700K ARR in One Week (AI Agents Only)19:39 - Capitalism's Black Hole: AI Makes Markets Too Efficient25:00 - Creator Fund Thesis: Investing in Cults, Not Content28:20 - Who Makes Money When Margins Hit Zero?34:41 - Silicon Valley's Advantage is DEAD (The Magic Wizard Hat)37:35 - Who Should Buy PayPal? (Stripe's One-Shot Window)42:11 - Agentic Commerce: Do Payment Networks Even Matter?45:18 - OpenAI Smart Speaker: Eddie Cue's Son Working on It46:51 - Gen Z Buying Original iPods: The Analog RebellionWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/moreorlesspodConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

In this episode of More or Less, we go from Sam's urgent care drama to the hottest debates in AI. Dave dives into his news about joining the OpenClaw Foundation board as the fastest-growing open source project in internet history faces a new chapter. While the OpenClaw founder is heading to OpenAI, Meta is launching competing agents, and the battle for personal AI is officially ON. How the "Internet of Putting iPads on Things" era returning, Anthropic vs Pentagon drama, whether AI intelligence will become worthless like cheap electricity, and why your 'normie' friends will be sending you their vibe-coded apps within 12 months.Chapters:3:02 Sam's Ski Injury Saga 5:00 OpenClaw Founder Going To OpenAI & Dave's Foundation Role 8:07 OpenClaw vs. Manus (On-Device vs. Cloud)11:02 Vibe Coding: Building an App a Day12:03 Meta vs. OpenAI Rivalry 22:00 The Fundraising Market: Mega Rounds & Narrative Capitalism27:04 The Big Debate: Bay Area Engineers in 3 Years 41:01 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon45:01 Intelligence as a Commodity53:50 Tennis with Madison Keys plug We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/3CewrGGMjRIConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit