Fed's 50 and Our Forecast

Is this the best economy ever? Given the big revisions to GDP and the steady stream of other stellar economic data, the Inside Economics team makes the case that it is.  Moderating inflation, full employment, stronger savings rates and steady corporate profits point to an economy that is stronger than consumer confidence suggests. The team also discusses the latest economic proposals from the presidential campaign and a recent opinion piece comparing Mark’s forecasts to those of Punxsutawney Phil. Editor’s note: Punxsutawney Phil has also been unfairly mischaracterized by the media. https://www.axios.com/2023/01/28/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-spring-winterGuest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Economist Martin Wurm joins Inside Economics to discuss the Fed’s rate cut earlier this week, which was larger than the IE team expected. Martin talks about the decision behind the large cut and what it means for the future path of interest rates and the forecasts for the rest of the economy. The team discusses the rate decision’s impact on the housing market and mortgage rates and ends by playing a tough stats game.Guest: Martin Wurm – Director-Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics team breaks down the latest inflation data -- August’s consumer price index. They unpack the underlying components, focusing most of their attention on the confounding acceleration in shelter inflation. “Eggflation” makes a return to the podcast as well. Nevertheless, U.S. inflation has cooled considerably, and the Fed is set to start lowering their policy rate at next week’s meeting. What will that mean for U.S. consumers and businesses? Finally, Marisa takes some listener questions and Matt reads some (mostly positive) reviews of the Inside Economics podcast.  Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics crew gathers in Southern California for an early morning reaction to the August jobs report, which they all concur is “pretty good”. They discuss the implications of slowing job growth for the Fed’s upcoming meetings as well as the presidential election. Finally, they all give their odds for a recession occurring in the next year—Cris remains the bear of the group. Guest: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Economic ResearchHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics team discusses what they found most encouraging and disquieting in the blizzard of economic releases and events of this past week. Emily Mandel, our state and local government expert, also weighs in on the fiscal health of states and how the economy is performing in states that stand to swing the Presidential election. The group also takes up listener questions; keep the Qs coming. Guest: Emily Mandel - Associate Director, Senior Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Brendan LaCerda (not Canadian) joins Mark, Cris & Marisa to discuss a plethora of topics, including the Canadian railroad workers strike, the revisions to the employment numbers, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and the Moody’s Analytics election model. The team takes a few thought-provoking listener questions on the housing market and the savings rate.  Reach out to us with any questions or suggestions at [email protected]: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

With the release of July’s consumer price index this week, the Inside Economics team discusses the current state of U.S. inflation. As they dig into the underlying details, they debate what they see as root causes. Specifically – are corporations taking advantage of consumers by keeping prices higher than they should? If so, are recent policy proposals to address ‘price gouging’ likely to be effective? Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

It has been a hair on fire couple weeks for global investors. Stock, bond, commodity and foreign exchange markets have been buffeted by wild swings.  No better person to discuss this with than Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and formerly of the Institute of International Finance, Goldman Sachs and the IMF. Robin weighs in on the reasons for the volatility, including policy missteps by the Bank of Japan, and considers what it all means for monetary policy and the economy. For more on today's guest: Robin J Brooks - Senior Fellow at Global Economy and Development, BrookingsFollow Robin on 'X'Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn 

Nick Bunker from Indeed joined the podcast to break down July’s surprisingly weak employment report. The team put forward their favorite interjections before breaking down the report into causes for concern, potential measurement issues and (a few) reasons for cautious optimism. The discussion turned to the “Sahm Rule” as the group pondered whether the recent rise in the unemployment rate is signaling a recession.  Mark and Marisa both claimed victory in the Statistics Game before the podcast ended with the team putting forward their current recession probabilities. (4:00) July Employment Report  (22:58) Labor Market Issues(51:00) Stats Game(1:02:50) Recession RisksToday's Guest: Nick Bunker, Director of North American Economic Research at IndeedFollow Nick Bunker: @Nick_BunkerHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Muzaffar Chishti, senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, shares his insights with the Inside Economics podcast on the challenges and opportunities posed by the recent surge in foreign immigration. He dispels various misconceptions around immigration and lays out a cogent immigration reform plan. Immigration policy will be at the top of the next President’s policy agenda, and hopefully they tap Muzaffar for his advice. Today's Guest: Muzaffar Chishti, Senior Fellow - Migration Policy Institute Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn