Westwood's Helfert: Not your father's market, but the rally's not done yet

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset investments at Westwood Holdings Group, says that a stock market that has averaged a 17% annualized gain for well over a decade "is not the equity environment that my dad knew," but while over-sized gains make investors worry that trouble must lie ahead, he thinks the market will roll on for as long as earnings continue to grow. Helfert says there's about a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, enough to worry about -- and to prompt investors to diversify -- but not enough to head to the sidelines. With the stock market keeps flirting with record highs, Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, talks about a column he wrote recently for MarketWatch in which he noted that peaking markets don't actually make it any easier on money managers trying to pick winners. Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, details the hard dynamics and impossible decisions she faced when she became financial caretaker for her mom. Pinsker's book, "My Mother's Money: A Guide to Financial Caretaking," is out today and it contains lessons not only for those who will take over affairs for parents, but for seniors who don't want to leave a burden to their children. (Bonus: You will learn the importance of making sure your financial accounts have a "trusted contact.")

Jim Carroll, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth — known as the "Vixologist" on X — says that the Trump Administration is living up to the idea that it can "Make Volatility Great Again," as seen by record stock markets, but notes that the actions have raised uncertainty and made investors nervous. He says the stock market and economy are still "fussing around" with tariffs and other geo-political risks that could send the market for a loop, and says investors should be protecting themselves against a correction, though he notes that movement could be a steep decline in prices or a long period of sideways. David Trainer, president of New Constructs puts another electric-vehicle maker in the Danger Zone, noting that while he dislikes a lot of the metrics for the industry, this company has been a stinker before and is poised to crater again, even as it has rebounded from huge past losses to gain more than 66 percent this year. Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of investment group at Ariel Investments — manager of the Ariel Focus Fund — brings his focused value investing style to the Market Call.  Plus, Chuck discusses the results of his annual Halloween "Cash or Candy, Trade or Treat" experience with the kids, where he gave away two big jackpots and a lot of candy, but double-disappointed a few of the trick-or-treaters.

JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she doesn't expect there to be a need for a protracted cycle of rate cuts and makes the case that the Federal Reserve and the economy might be best served by stopping after one more cut, even if it waits through December to do it. Bianco says that markets -- particularly equity markets — want rate cuts — want rate cuts but could be overly optimistic about the impact that reductions would have when it comes to promoting spending, helping the labor market and more. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager, Vineyard Global Advisors says "It's a really healthy bull market right now" with the potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to top 7,000 by year's end. Dilley added that the charts aren't showing the kind of big tops that suggest that momentum is starting to wane, so while valuations are elevated and "the market has priced in a lot of good news," he still thinks declines should be viewed as buying opportunities. Ravi Chintapalli, portfolio manager on the Nuveen Global Fixed Income team, says that he has never seen a high-yield market that has been higher quality than what he is seeing now. That helps to explain tight spreads, and suggests investors shouldn't shy away from high-yield because they're being compensated for "the true level of default risk in the market."  In the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks deep-value investing and how it works in a market dominated by a few big names. Carlisle recently wrote a book comparing the value investing tactics of Warren Buffett with "The Art of War" tactics of Sun Tzu.

Bryan Whalen, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at TCW says he's now putting the odds of a recession at 60 percent, down from 80 percent at the start of the year, but he suggests that even in a no-landing scenario, investors can expect dramatically higher volatility as stock and bond markets head into 2026. Whalen pointed out that with rate cuts starting to take hold, investors may want to keep some powder dry for the opportunities he sees ahead as the market responds to how the Fed plays out the cycle. In the Market Call, Ardal Loh-Gronager, founder of Loh-Gronager Partners — the author of "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing" — discusses his take on value investing, which is a mix of classic Warren Buffett style with a bit more trading and a broad industry-based focus as a starting point. Plus, as investors deal with the latest interest-rate cuts, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks an actively managed municipal bond fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says that classic index instruction has investors buying stocks after they get hot, dropping stocks after losses have occurred and missing out on several percentage points of return in the process. Arnott says the largest stocks earn their place in the index, but that the stocks that move into or out of an index — a process that is actively managed with the most-famous indexes — is where the trouble happens. As for the personal indexes that are arising these days, Arnott says that, in general, you'd be better off letting a cat pick the stocks for you. Olivia Valdes, senior researcher at the FINRA Foundation, discusses their research which shows that consumers and investors are vulnerable to fraud because more than half of them don't recognize the common signs that someone is trying to pull a scam. Plus, Chuck talks about how to calculate the expected value of a bet after a listener raises questions about the lottery option on his Halloween cash-or-candy game, and whether giving kids a second chance — the new twist Chuck is adding this year — doubles the odds of winning.

Christian Chan, chief investment officer, at AssetMark, says that markets should remain favorable for as long as economic conditions stay modestly positive, but he notes that the artificial-intelligence boom is helping to ensure that's the outcome, putting a floor under how much damage can be suffered in any financial storms. Chan says he expects those storms to stop short of a recession and he's not as sure as some observers that the market itself is in a bubble; he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but notes that they won't go too low for too long, which should help the economy move forward without hurting the fixed-income markets. Behavioral finance expert Terrance Odean, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley, discusses what investors do wrong when they are staring down bubbly conditions and how they ought to behave when markets are frothy and the experts are concerned about what the end of a rally will look like. Kathryn Berkenpas, managing director of corporate growth for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the biggest financial regrets from Generation X, whose oldest members are turning 60 this year. A CFP Board of Standards survey of Gen-Xers, showed that nearly half felt they made financial moves that have ultimately cost them at least $100,000 in what they could have saved simply by pursuing better money behaviors.

Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says there is a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, where the economy has been great for stocks but consumers have been feeling the pain. He is hoping to see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with the impacts trickling down to Main Street in ways that might perk up some of the soft data and consumer sentiment, and that could help people avoid falling into the trap of spiraling debt. Stefan Sharkansky, creator of The Best Third, discusses his research, which shows that the classic "4% Rule" — where retirees expect to  be set for life financially if they can live by spending no more than 4 percent of their retirement nestegg annually — has two bad potential outcomes, either premature depletion of their portfolio or unnecessary underspending. He dials in on how savers can better view their savings to make more efficient use of their nestegg. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits Warby Parker in The Danger Zone, noting that the eyeglass maker and retailer is popular but that brand-recognition alone isn't enough to make a good stock, particularly if it leads to greater sales without any signs of profits. New Constructus first put Warby Parker in the Danger Zone when it was going through its IPO in 2021. Plus Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that economists believe the likelihood of a recession is shrinking, at least for now.

Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at your back." For a decade now, Chuck has offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and the opportunity to make a trade to try to get a bigger treat. It's his way of teaching basic financial decision-making, where children must consider if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. The game changes in small ways each year, and Chuck is unveiling a new "second chance" option that actually would be a really bad choice for the children. Chuck also talks about how you can do your own scaled-down version of cash-or-candy in your home. Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that he's "not seeing anything in the closed-end fund space that would point to any type of bubble conditions," but instead sees generic, seasonal discount-widening caused by the start of year-end tax selling. Still, he says investors should make sure they are comfortable that they can weather those flurries "and readjust to the better things that are on sale and then double-collect on the way up."  Plus Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate talks about the housing market as measured by trends in national statistics, which have shown that homes are now on the market for longer than during the summer, with median home values up slightly but median sale prices up more, suggesting that investors are paying a premium to make a deal now.

Steve Cucchiaro, chief investment officer at 3EDGE Asset Management, says we're in a "market melt-up," the last phase of a rally or bubble that creates a buying climax, but that typically ends with trouble. Cucchiaro says valuations are in one of the three greatest periods of overvaluation they have seen in the last century, making them more dangerous than investors expect. As a result, he is holding more in international stocks than domestic issues and is ramping up gold holdings to 10 to 15 percent of the typical client's portfolio.  David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says he worries that "The market is becoming the economy," where a big decline in markets could drag the broader economy into a deep recession. Ellison likes the positioning of the financial services industry, but he questions both the popularity and impact of rate cuts, noting that from current levels rate reductions might not be good or healthy for the economy. In honor of Halloween, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a scary fund — a leveraged bullish daily play on a specific sector — his ETF of the Week, noting that these kinds of specialized funds really only work for investors who will oversee their portfolio constantly to make sure that they don't get burned by the "hot sauce" they're adding to their holdings.

Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says the market is in uncharted territory, but that's not just about record highs, but also because the Federal Reserve is in a position where it will be cutting rates with the market at highs and with the underlying conditions suggesting that a cut isn't warranted or necessary. Making cuts will appease the market, but it may lead to a steeper yield curve, which has Wells concentrating on the short end of the curve to minimize duration risk. Wells says that nervous investors are right to think that the market can't rise forever, but it can keep going up for years, so the fear of missing out is as real as the concerns that the markets are topping and investors need to find a balance between the two. Brian Potts, founder of Goods Unite Us and the creator of the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF — The DEMZ fund — brings his take on "politically responsible investing" to the Market Call, a day after Hal Lambert of the Maga ETF was on the show. He'll talk about his fund's methodology -- and how the research could allow him to create a Republican counterpart to his current fund — and his take on some stocks will include some surprising agreement (and not surprising disagreements) with Lambert on a few names. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about dividend investing and why the benefits of regular payouts don't always translate to superior performance when compared to stocks that don't pay dividends.