Asbury Research's Kosar: This 'great market' is built on 'tenuous' footing

Cheryl Smith, economist at Trillium Asset Management, says she is seeing "more economic warning signs," and worries that one of them — interest rates going up, but much later than might have been anticipated based on headlines — could be setting up a compressed timeline for increases, with the rapidity of the move creating more problems than would have surfaced in a slower uptrend. On the stock market, Smith says the rising interest rates will have an impact that, coupled with slower earnings and turns in the artificial-intelligence market make it that "You will see a considerably more difficult path for equities in 2027." In the Market Call, Eric Marshall, president of Hodges Capital Management and co-portfolio manager on three of the Hodges Funds, talks about bottoms-up stock-picking and the small-cap market . Plus, Stan Haithcock — best known as "Stan the Annuity Man" — returns to the show to answer questions, including one from a listener who is nervous about the stock market and looking to take some money out without losing the income stream that those dividends have been delivering.    

Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial, says that the market has shaken off the impact of higher oil prices, leading investors to a sense of complacency, where they think only a much higher spike in crude prices will upset the economy. He feels, however, that "the longer we are at these levels the harder it becomes to ignore," noting that the same kind of thinking can also be applied to rising bond yields, where the market is deciding just how real the fears are, but where they can't ignore the issue indefinitely. Kerr isn't calling for a major market reversal, but more for caution and diversification, because he believes that at some point many of the fears over headline risks will be realized. Author Daniel Goldie discusses his new book, out today, "The Retirement Answer: The 6 Key Decisions Every Retiree Needs to Make," which covers timing, Social Security , Medicare, distribution strategies, investments and legacy choices In the Market Call, Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, discusses exchange-traded funds, which sectors appear to be in favor now, the difficulties in evaluating newfangled funds with options overlays or leveraged, single-stock strategies and more.

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says this is "one of the oddest markets" he's seen, with stocks nearly at record highs, two-decade highs in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds, a war, tariffs, oil priced at over $100 per barrel, and yet less stocks are making fresh highs and the Magnificent Seven stocks are carrying the load for the entire market. If the "big gorilla stocks" falter — which Kosar says is likely at some point — the market could topple like a Jenga tower. Kosar isn't out of stocks yet, but he's watching volatility and more, prepping to play defense soon. Josh Wein, portfolio manager at the Hennessy Funds, says that oil prices -- rather than Federal Reserve rate hikes — are "the big wildcard for the market" right now, noting that he expects the market to easily absorb the first two increases, and maybe more. One reason for that, Wein says, is that it's now earnings — rather than the Fed -- that are driving the market and investor sentiment. Wein, who manages 10 funds at Hennessy, says he expects a small rally as third-quarter earnings come out, getting better into the end of the year. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager for the Muhlenkamp Fund, explains in the Market Call why his fund is holding a larger allocation to gold and gold miners than ever before in its long history, discusses valuation concerns around earnings and talks about why the "hold" decision is as important as the buys and sells.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs has been cautious about artificial-intelligence stocks for a long time, noting that few of them pass his firm's rigorous evaluation criteria to be "attractive" investments, but he now says that liquidity concerns for the big-name A.I. players have him convinced that the market is in an A.I. bubble. That doesn't mean a crash is imminent — he notes that "Bubbles can go on for a long time" — but he says that once liquidity dries up, trouble will come quickly. Trainer says recent signs of shrinking liquidity include: delayed IPOs, "skyrocketing borrowing costs," a rapid rise in the cost of default credit swaps (which protect investors against default), " and a "risk-free rate" that's saying it's way more expensive to borrow. It adds up to a building problem that he says is closer to the edge, but is largely ignored in the other, more popular conversations about what's potentially wrong with A.I. Joanne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that the surge in Treasury yields to levels not seen in decades "is beyond most people's expectations," but she says higher rates haven't been scary yet because strong economic conditions have kept the market stable. That will persist for at least one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve — which the market already seems to be pricing in — but how she says it is less clear how the market will respond if there are more hikes down the line. She discusses the parts of the yield curve and risk spectrum she finds most attractive right now, given the rate picture, inflation and more. And — in an interview that goes in directions opposite to the others — Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says he's not buying A.I. panic stories, noting that he believes they are mostly about the industry's powerbrokers trying to create "regulatory capture," using rules where the real purpose is to protect their current competitive advantages. He also discusses the sudden rise in bond yields and the potential risk that poses to bond fund investors, suggesting they'd be better off holding bonds directly, planning to capture the yield to maturity, and using a laddered approach so that higher-rate paper is routinely being added to the portfolio as rates climb. Plus, Vijay talks about the rise in 401(k) millionaires, and how it's more a phenomenon of market growth and inflation than a meaningful milestone, noting that savers should focus on their needs and whether their plan and savings level will get them to a level of sufficiency.

Brian Levitt, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says investors are watching dual forces at play: a structural growth story in artificial intelligence and a cyclical upswing in the global economy. That has allowed the market to "absorb all of this," from higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields to the first of what will likely be multiple interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Levitt discounted most of the worrisome factors investors have been focused on with the market, saying "The onus is on the bears at this point" to show that potential troubles will play out. He doesn't believe that stocks are overvalued or that higher energy prices or borrowing costs will break the artificial-intelligence development cycle, which he thinks remains in its early stages of powering the market higher. In The NAVigator segment, Matt Kence of Aberdeen Investments, discusses  the current state of the high-yield market and how it has been responding to rising interest rates. Kence, the portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Credit Income Strategies fund says fundamentals remain fundamentals remain surprisingly robust, leverage levels overall are moderate and interest coverage remains strong, with defaults in the high-yield space well below long-term averages. Kence also discusses the impact that artificial intelligence is making on the market, noting that A.I.-adjacent industries like power generation feel stable but have narrow spreads, making A.I.-direct companies the better pick for attractive opportunities right now. Plus, Natalie Iannello of Digital Third Coast discusses survey research done for BPG Inspections which found that 44% of Americans have experienced a moving issue or scam. Among the most-common problems encountered during moves: hidden fees or unexpected upcharges, belongings damaged without compensation, and delayed delivery.

Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast, says there are reasons why Americans feel like they can afford nothing these days, despite a stock market and economy that clearly are representing good times, noting that individuals are stuck in the contrast between rising asset values and stagnant income. "Your 401k balance might be doing really well, but you can't eat that," she says, which creates some level of financial strain. Pant also covers the importance of understanding inflation, setting spending priorities so that you can, indeed, afford anything while recognizing that you can't afford everything. Personal finance expert Jean Chatzky discusses her latest book, "The Forever Paycheck: The New Retirement Strategy to Spend More, Worry Less, and Never Run Out of Money," and how she has come to see that much of conventional financial planning is focused incorrectly on how much someone needs to save rather than centering on how to generate sufficient income to live out their lives comfortably and without compromising on the things they most value. Beyond discussing how to create a lifetime paycheck using bank accounts, bonds and annuities, Jean highlights research showing that people with a structured income feel free to spend more of their money, rather than keeping their life savings tied up out of a fear of running out of money. Plus, Melissa Stephenson discusses survey research done for CGTrader.com, a 3d model marketplace, which showed that rising costs have been impacting home repairs, with more than 60% of homeowners recently delaying repairs due to cost, and the same percentage saying that those higher costs make them more likely to try fixing something on their own rather than hiring an expert. Nearly half of the respondents said they could not comfortably cover a $250 surprise repair out of pocket.

Joe Saul-Sehy, host of the Stacking Benjamins podcast, visits Money Life to catch Chuck up on the things he missed at FinCon 2026 — held last week in California — but also to discuss how the personal finance world is changing in the face of lingering inflation, rising interest rates, increased influence from artificial intelligence, Robert Kiyosaki's $1.2 billion debt problem and much more. Saul-Sehy also discusses so-called "safe withdrawal rates," and says the "4 percent rule" drives him crazy, because it puts the focus on accumulating wealth rather than "creating a fulfilling life." Author Renee Bryan discusses her book "The Morality of Money: Remove Fear and Discover Financial Freedom Through Simple Economic Principles and Universal Truths," and the intersection of faith and finance. Bryan talks about how economic principles can align with being a good person, and advocates for using moral principles to guide financial decisions, suggesting that a positive mindset can lead to personal prosperity. Plus, Carlo Versano, director of politics and culture at Newsweek, discusses their recently reached American Dream Index, which examines how Americans perceive their ability to achieve success, prosperity, and upward mobility, looking at the issue from perceptions for the whole country down into attitudes in cities and states. The overall scores indicated a struggle across the board and, in fact, no state achieved a score above 70 on a scale of 100. That doesn't mean the American Dream is dead — far from it, according to Versano — but it does mean that people may need to choose different paths and different locations to have the best chance of achieving it in their lives.

Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says he expects the market to rally once the midterm elections are through, particularly because the third-year of the presidential cycle tends to be the most bullish, most notably the first half of those years. For the short-term — as the market finishes a September in which it has shown none of the usual seasonal signs of distress and rolls into October — Timpane sees a market that could get to roughly 8100 on the Standard & Poor's 500, with downside support at 7500, and growing firmer at 7,250 should some news trigger a slightly bigger sell-off.  David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group and owner of the Baltimore Orioles baseball team, discusses his new book, released today, "Inside the Owner's Box: Conversations on Power and Leadership in Sports." In a wide-ranging interview, Rubenstein also discusses the impact that gambling generally and prediction markets most recently have had on sports, on how measuring success as the owner of a sports team is different than weighing it in the ordinary business world and more. In the Market Call, Elliott Gue, editor at Energy & Income Advisor, discusses how the buildout of artificial intelligence and its seemingly insatiable need for power is impacting energy stocks. Gue, who publishes the Free Market Speculator on Substack, notes that the capital expenditures boom may force energy/income investors to decide if they want to trade some steadiness of income for the hope of a higher total return.

Alex Edmans, author of "The Madness of Markets: Why Smart Investors Make Crazy Decisions - And How to Exploit Them," says that even smart investors sometimes make poor financial decisions, noting that overconfidence, fear, excitement, and the tendency to overreact to market news can cause investors to trade too frequently and buy high/sell low. Edmans says the financial industry is amplifying these mistakes by making trading easier (encouraging activity that generates fees or spreads), and recommends identifying and acknowledging psychological weaknesses and favoring simple strategies such as diversification, long-term investing, and broad-market index funds. He also discusses how seemingly irrelevant emotions -- including reactions to sports results -- can influence investment decisions in ways most of us would never consider as possible.   In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses whether the creation of an "A.I. Force" and appointment of an "A.I. czar" could control and improve the development process or slow it down and set it back. Speaking of setbacks, Marolia also discusses Anthropic's plans for an IPO that could be valued at $2 trillion, and whether the company whose CEO set off a lot of the alarm bells on A.I. should pause its offering until there is more clarity on the future regulation of the industry. Plus, personal finance guru Robert Kiyosaki has had some setbacks and is $1.2 billion in debt; the amount is crazy, but Marolia considers whether the best-selling author behind "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" is crazy like a fox. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that one overlooked aspect of the A.I. build-out is that all of the ballyhooed capital expenditures are starting to show up on company books, but they're doing it in places that mostly go unnoticed. Guske says that if the AI companies in the top 25 of the S&P 500 wanted to earn an adequate return on invested capital on their trillions in new AI-related debt, they must generate $1.4 trillion in new profit on top of what they already earn, and says he doesn't think most investors are pricingin that risk. As a result, he put "the most wanted earnings manipulators" in The Danger Zone, and documented how the A.I. buildout is ballooning the balance sheets of some of the world's largest companies.

Dan Sotiroff, associate director of passive strategies at Morningstar goes "Off The News" discussing the firm's just-released "State of US ETFs 2026" report, which found that heightened competition is increasingly pushing fund firms to open "complex, narrowly focused strategies that may resemble gambling more than long-term investing. He says that the issues are strange and getting weirder, citing examples of ETFs now tied to everything from election results to hockey scores, and while many of those new funds have not opened to investors yet, they are the logical extension of single-stock funds and other new issues that offer investors new ways to play the market. While Sotiroff notes that there have been sound improvements in a few of the newfangled funds, there are more potential gambles than real investing. Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub, discusses his new book, "Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street," and the importance of finding solid fundamentals and profits to select tiny stocks with the potential to beat the odds and grow into big profits and status as a large- or mega-cap company. And in "The NAVigator," Young Choi, portfolio manager for the XAI Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust, says the explosion in specialty ETFs dedicated to investing in collateralized loan obligations has changed the CLO market, compressing spreads and changing some buying opportunities. In "The NAVigator," Choi also  discusses differences between the private credit and CLO markets, noting that any blow-up or problem in the private space could have spillover effects that create buying opportunities in CLOs.