The Iran-Israel Conflict and the Future of the Iranian Regime

The dust has barely settled following the dramatic 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but its political and strategic reverberations are already shaping the future of the Middle East. In this episode of Middle East Focus, Ross Harrison, senior fellow and book series editor at the Middle East Institute, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess what comes next — from Tehran’s internal power recalibrations to the future of Iran’s forward defense strategy, and shifting regional alliances. Harrison also discusses key themes from his forthcoming book, Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy (I.B. Tauris), which offers a timely and incisive analysis of how Iran navigates the complex geopolitical landscape. Recorded June 25, 2025

Welcome to a special Bonus Episode of Middle East Focus. We're pleased to bring you access to a recent MEI press briefing on the evolving Israel-Iran conflict, recorded on Wednesday, June 25. You'll hear from MEI's Distinguished Military Fellow Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Alan Eyre, and Senior Fellow Paul Salem who join MEI's Ken Pollack to discuss the ongoing conflict, in light of the recent proposed ceasefire agreement. They also discuss the recent US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on a US military base, and prospects for de-escalation. This session was on-the-record and open to the public.

Welcome to a special Bonus Episode of Middle East Focus. We're pleased to bring you access to a recent MEI press briefing on the evolving Israel-Iran conflict, recorded on June 16, 2025. You'll hear from MEI’s Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Barbara A. Leaf and Alan Eyre, as well as our Distinguished Military Fellow Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr., USMC (ret.), who bring decades of firsthand experience working on Iran policy and regional security issues. The discussion was moderated by Kenneth Pollack, MEI's VP for Policy. Their analysis offers insights into the rapidly developing events shaping the conflict and highlights the critical indicators we should be watching for as this situation continues to unfold.

Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to examine the dramatic escalation between Israel and Iran following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, infrastructure, and senior IRGC officials. Vatanka discusses how the Iranian regime is responding, the risk of wider regional conflict, and whether the current campaign could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.   Recorded June 17, 2025

MEI Senior Fellow Paul Salem joins the program to assess Lebanon’s rapidly shifting political landscape. With a new president and government promising to enact reforms and reassert sovereignty, Lebanon faces a daunting agenda: disarming Hizballah, rebuilding institutions, navigating regional diplomacy, and restoring the economy. Salem offers on-the-ground insight from Beirut, unpacks the fragility of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and outlines how international actors--from the US to Iran--are shaping the country’s future. Recorded June 9, 2025

What’s next for Gaza—and for Israel? In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj sit down with Ghaith al-Omari, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former advisor to the Palestinian Authority, to unpack the urgent humanitarian crisis gripping Gaza, the impact of Israeli settlement expansion, and what these developments mean for the future of the region.  Recorded June 3, 2025

MEI Senior Fellow Charles Lister joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the Trump administration’s dramatic reversal of four decades of US policy toward Syria. Following President Trump’s May 2025 meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the issuance of a new general license and 180-day waiver of Caesar Act sanctions, the episode explores the implications of this policy shift. What does this mean for Syria’s recovery and reconstruction? How are regional actors like Turkey, Israel, and the Gulf states responding? And what are the risks and opportunities ahead for US-Syria relations? Lister unpacks the diplomatic, economic, and security dimensions of this major policy development and what it signals for Syria’s evolving role in the region. This episode was recorded on May 27, 2025.

Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak with MEI Senior Fellow Mohammed Soliman about President Donald Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, which yielded a wave of major US-Gulf tech and AI deals. Soliman explains how these partnerships mark a shift in the relationship—from oil and arms to compute power and data infrastructure—and what it means for the Gulf’s strategic role in the global AI ecosystem. The discussion explores the energy bottlenecks behind AI development, evolving US export control policy, and the social and geopolitical implications of the Gulf’s ambitions to become a digital hub for emerging markets. Recorded May 19, 2025. More analysis from Mohammed Soliman: Realigning US-Saudi relations for the AI era Sheikh Tahnoon in Washington: UAE-US relations reimagined for the 21st century with technology at the core JD Vance Unveils America’s AI Doctrine (The National Interest)

The sudden announcement of a US-Houthi ceasefire, brokered by Oman, has halted Washington’s air campaign in Yemen and raised urgent questions about the future of Red Sea security. What prompted the deal, and what are its implications for maritime shipping, regional alliances, and the trajectory of Yemen’s civil war? This episode explores the strategic motivations behind the ceasefire, the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and how the Houthis could leverage the pause to regroup and expand their influence across the Horn of Africa. Joining the program is Nadwa Al-Dawsari, associate fellow with the Middle East Institute, the Irregular Warfare Initiative, and the Center on Armed Groups. She speaks with MEI’s Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj.   Recorded May 12, 2025

President Donald Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on his first foreign trip of his second term, with major investment deals, defense cooperation, and tech diplomacy on the agenda. What are the Gulf states hoping to gain, and what does the trip signal about US policy in the region? Alistair Taylor speaks with Dr. Ibrahim al-Assil, Senior Fellow at MEI, about the goals of the visit, the geopolitical and economic dynamics at play, and how regional powers are navigating a complex landscape shaped by Iran, China, AI ambitions, and the crisis in Gaza. Recorded May 6, 2025 Further Analysis: Video: "First Stop, Riyadh: Why Trump's Saudi Visit Will Be Nothing Like the Last" with F. Gregory Gause, III Article: "Realigning US-Saudi relations for the AI era" by Mohammed Soliman