The good, the bad and the ugly of election polling

With the elections for president, the Senate and the House just 4½ months away, misinformation is on the rise. We’ll get into the kind of false narratives to look for on the campaign trail. Plus, how loopholes in medical billing underscore the importance of change at the state and local levels. And, the story of a remote-controlled robot that rescues swimmers in distress. Here’s everything we talked about today: Post about the Republican National Committee from Jay Nordlinger on X “Even Doctors Like Me Are Falling Into This Medical Bill Trap” from The New York Times “Watch a robot race over Lake Michigan waves to help a swimmer” from MLive “Which sentence do you think is grammatically correct?” from YouGov We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

A new pitch from former President Donald Trump calls for replacing income tax with tariffs. We’ll get into why the math doesn’t add up. Plus, chemical hair relaxers are making Black women sick, so why are they still being sold? And, we’ll weigh in on Apple entering the AI race, Hollywood studios buying movie theaters, and using speakerphone in public during a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: Post about Donald Trump’s “all tariffs policy” from Emily Wilkins on X “The Disturbing Truth About Hair Relaxers” from The New York Times “Alex Jones’ personal assets to be sold to pay $1.5B Sandy Hook debt. Company bankruptcy is dismissed” from The Associated Press “Why decaf coffee is growing in popularity” from Marketplace “Apple announces AI features” from Marketplace “Games Are Proving Their Pull on News and Tech Sites” from The New York Times  “Sony Pictures Acquires Alamo Drafthouse Cinema in Landmark Deal That Puts Studios Back in Theater Game” from The Hollywood Reporter “Living Out Loud, Headphones Nowhere to Be Found” from The New York Times We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

About 15 million Americans collectively have $49 million in medical debt on their credit reports, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But a new proposed rule might remove these bills from their credit scores. We’ll explain. Plus, the domino effect of local elections being funded by national players. And, how Apple’s new AI features could change the language of emoji. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Vice President Kamala Harris On Sherri” from “Sherri” “CFPB Proposes to Ban Medical Bills from Credit Reports” from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau “CFPB Finds 15 Million Americans Have Medical Bills on Their Credit Reports” from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau “Biden Proposes Dropping Medical Debt From Credit Reports” from The New York Times “More parents are cosigning their kids’ mortgages” from Marketplace  “Co-Borrowing Is on the Rise for First-Time Homebuyers” from Freddie Mac  “Campaign donors hope money makes the difference in hotly contested states” from Marketplace “Apple Intelligence in 5 minutes” from Apple “Apple announces AI features” from Marketplace Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We’ll have news, drinks, a game and more.

It’s a New York edition of “Make Me Smart”! Marketplace’s Kristin Schwab joins Kimberly in the NYC bureau to discuss a growing trend in the city that never sleeps: Nightlife is winding down a lot earlier these days, and that might be good for businesses. But first, why Tornado Alley may be migrating east, and a deeper look into the legal loopholes of campaign finance. Plus, the rescue of an orphaned baby elephant is making us smile. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Tornadoes shifting east in the U.S., study finds, putting more people at risk” from The Washington Post “Everything You Need to Know About the New ‘Twisters’ Movie” from Parade “$800K transfer from billionaire donor to US Chamber raises curtain on dark money” from The Hill “Reservations at 5 p.m.? Why the early bird dinner is cool again” from The Globe and Mail “Forget Partying Till the Wee Hours. Newlyweds Want to End Early.” from The New York Times “This dance party made for elder Millennials ends at 10pm” from Time Out “6 p.m. dinner reservations are losing their stigma” from Marketplace “The Rescue of Toto” from Sheldrick Wildlife Trust “African elephants address one another with individually specific name-like calls” from Nature Ecology & Evolution “Scientists used AI to figure out elephants have names for themselves” from Business Insider We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

It’s decision season for the U.S. Supreme Court, meaning the court is weighing in on a slew of cases dealing with a wide range of issues, including abortion medication restrictions and the power of federal agencies. One legal doctrine has become more and more influential in that decision-making: originalism. But Madiba Dennie, author of the new book “The Originalism Trap: How Extremists Stole the Constitution and How We the People Can Take It Back,” calls that a relatively recent phenomenon. On the show today, Dennie explains what originalism is, how it gained a foothold in American legal thought and why she believes its rise has eroded Americans’ rights and threatened economic stability. Plus, her idea for how we move forward. Then, we’ll get into the movie-worthy story of an African American man who escaped slavery and became a fierce critic of the Constitution. Plus, Patrick Schumacker, an executive producer of the TV series “Abbott Elementary,” answers the Make Me Smart question. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Throw Originalism Out. It’s Time for Inclusive Constitutionalism.” from Slate “Originalism, Amy Coney Barrett’s approach to the Constitution, explained” from Vox “Even the Founders Didn’t Believe in Originalism” from The Atlantic “What is originalism? Did it underpin the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion and guns? Debunking the myths” from The Conversation “The biggest 2024 Supreme Court rulings so far, and what’s still to come” from The Washington Post “A Furious, Forgotten Slave Narrative Resurfaces After Nearly 170 Years” from The New York Times “Facebook owner Meta seeks to train AI model on European data as it faces privacy concerns” from AP News What have you been wrong about lately? Let us know at [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

The main channel into the Port of Baltimore is expected to reopen soon, but the city is still dealing with the aftermath of the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge in late March. Guest host Amy Scott explains how the port’s closure has affected global supply chains, shipping container costs and life in Baltimore. Plus, a shake-up at the Federal Election Commission is making certain gray areas of campaign finance even grayer. Then, we’ll celebrate the first transgender and Asian American woman to be crowned Miss Maryland USA. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Full channel into Port of Baltimore expected to open ‘in the next few days,’ officials say” from The Baltimore Sun “With widened channel, port seeks to recover traffic lost after Key Bridge collapse” from The Baltimore Sun “Sudden container crunch sends ocean freight rates soaring, setting off global trade alarm bells” from CNBC “How the Federal Election Commission Went From Deadlock to Deregulation” from The New York Times “Bailey Anne Kennedy: Trans woman wins Miss Maryland USA, makes pageant history” from The Baltimore Banner “Gen Z Plumbers and Construction Workers Are Making #BlueCollar Cool” from The Wall Street Journal “A labor shortage stands in the way of the clean energy transition” from Marketplace We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

It’s Friday, folks! Today we’re talking about some news coming from former President Donald Trump, who has vowed to take away key spending powers from Congress if reelected. We’ll get into what that would mean in practice. Plus, we’ll talk through the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which just announced it’ll be decreasing the number of households surveyed for important reports like the monthly jobs report. It’s a move that will make decoding what’s going on in our economy more a little more challenging. Plus, we’ll get into Bazooka gum, the rise of Uncrustables and Forever Stamps getting more expensive during a round of Half Full/Half Empty. Here’s everything we talked about today: “US Jobs Household Survey Size to Be Cut Due to Budget Constraints” from Bloomberg “Trump plans to claim sweeping powers to cancel federal spending” from The Washington Post  “Does Texas need its own stock exchange?” from Marketplace “From school cafeterias to professional athletes, Uncrustables sandwiches are everywhere” from Marketplace “Bazooka Candy’s CEO on the brand’s sweet athlete investment deal” from Marketplace “Some New Yorkers are pushing for open streets to be permanent” from Marketplace “Forever stamps are about to get more expensive — again” from Marketplace We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

The European Central Bank is joining Canada in cutting interest rates after months and months of holding them steady. But the U.S. Federal Reserve isn’t likely to follow suit, at least not yet. We’ll explain why. Then, we’ll dig deeper into the political and financial motivations for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s abrupt decision to block congestion pricing in New York City. Plus, what antitrust investigations into Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI could mean for AI mania. Here’s everything we talked about today: “European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates for the First Time Since 2019” from The New York Times “ECB: Interest rates are coming down in Europe. The Fed won’t follow yet” from CNN “Canada becomes first G7 nation to cut interest rates” from Reuters “Advocates for congestion pricing want Governor Hochul to think about long-term benefits” from ABC7 New York “Big Auto And The Death Of Traffic Congestion Reform” from The Lever  “Banerji: Seeing a true mania in Nvidia and meme stock trading” from CNBC “Angel Reese: People watch WNBA for me too, not just one person!” from ESPN “The ugly discourse surrounding Caitlin Clark” from The Washington Post Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We’ll have news, drinks, and play a round of Half Full/Half Empty!

Triple-digit heat waves are spreading across the Southwest, and many incarcerated people have to endure the extreme weather without air conditioning. We’ll get into why state legislatures have been slow to address the problem and why it’ll only get worse as temperatures rise. Plus, we’ll get into New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s last minute switch-up on congestion pricing. And, the story of a TikTok influencer treating day laborers to days off at Disneyland is making us smile. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Hochul Halts Congestion Pricing in a Stunning 11th-Hour Shift” from The New York Times “A year of record global heat has pushed Earth closer to dangerous threshold” from The Washington Post “‘Cooking someone to death’: Southern states resist calls to add air conditioning to prisons” from Politico “This 27-year-old keeps taking day laborers to Disneyland. One thing always catches his attention” from CNN “Boeing Starliner launches 2 NASA astronauts into space in first piloted test flight” from Fox Business We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

With the 2024 election only five months away, polls abound. But since 2016, polls have had somewhat of a bad rap, and many Americans have become skeptical of their reliability. David Dutwin, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at NORC at the University of Chicago, said we’re thinking about polls all wrong. On the show today, Dutwin explains what polls can and can’t tell us, how to spot a high-quality poll and what kind of role polling should play in our understanding of elections. Plus, what’s keeping pollsters up at night. Then, we’ll talk about how the Joe Biden administration is addressing an issue that’s top of mind, according to a new Gallup survey: immigration. And, a Half Full/Half Empty update on the job market. Later, one listener’s small-scale solution to the Big Food problem, and a divisive grammar debate. Plus, a listener was wrong about the meaning of “vibecession.” Here’s everything we talked about today: “What Can Election 2024 Polls Really Tell Us?” from Scientific American “Polling in 2024” from Reuters View the latest national polls from FiveThirtyEight “Public Opinion Polling Basics” from Pew Research Center “We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again” from The Washington Post “US Job Openings Fall to Lowest Since 2021 in Broad Cooldown” from Bloomberg   “Immigration Named Top U.S. Problem for Third Straight Month” from Gallup “Biden issues new executive action: Much of southern border to close at midnight” from Politico  “Biden prepares an order that would shut down asylum requests at US-Mexico border” from The Associated Press “Kyla Scanlon wants to remind us that ‘people are the economy’” from Marketplace We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to [email protected] or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.