Is freedom of navigation under threat? Part II

Discussion about decarbonisation have moved from technical departments within shipping companies into their commercial and financial teams, the president and chief operating officer of Veson Nautical, Sean Riley, says in this Lloyd’s List podcast. While there is uncertainty around the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, regional requirements — especially those being implemented by the EU — provide a certainty that cannot be ignored. The continuously evolving and expanding nature of regulations in shipping means that decarbonisation is now “both a commercial and operational reality”, he says. Speaking in early March, Riley reflected on the first year of the EU’s decarbonisation scheme, the FuelEU Maritime Regulation, which ended on January 31. By the end of March, shipping companies will have heard from their verifier about the compliance status of each of their ships based on that first year’s data and those results might lead to “some interesting decision-making challenges or dilemmas”, he says. In the podcast, Riley explains why he views FuelEU in particular as an especially impactful regulation to ship operations. He says its “choice driven” options have both positive and negative implications for shipowners and operators, while adding a level of complexity that must be addressed by companies’ systems and processes. He anticipates that the outcome will see companies shift their focus away from strict compliance towards optimising the financial benefits of compliance, creating a trading strategy based around FuelEU-related decision-making. However, Riley also emphasises that it’s ultimately not about optimising for any one regulation in particular, but rather proactively building decarbonisation into daily decisions in a way that leaves room for inevitable change. He explains in the podcast why this commercial response to a change in the regulatory landscape is different from previous environment-inspired changes, such as the sulphur limits imposed on fuel. He contrasts how the impact of low-sulphur fuel was mainly restricted to operating costs, while decarbonisation requirements today are reaching further, across fixing, operating and trading strategies. The flexibility around how to comply provides the industry choice but has also resulted in a lack of clarity about setting commercial priorities and knowing exactly what conditions to optimise for. Instead, these will vary depending on a ship’s location, so “you’ve got to invest in systems and processes that can absorb change easily”, he says. Riley considers whether some industry sectors are responding differently from others and refers to the potential of AI to resolve some of the uncertainties companies face. “There will certainly be more regulations,” he says, and emphasises: “for our clients, pretending that this is not a commercial reality is no longer an option”.

This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast is brought to you by Veson. Find out more at www.veson.com/decarb-guide THE accusations of piracy and unlawful interference with freedom of navigation have been coming thick and fast for a while now, but tactics that generate accusations of piracy one day can’t simply be rebranded as “law enforcement” or “counter-narcoterrorism” the next. The fact that governments are currently accusing each other of undermining the basic principle of freedom of navigation is arguably good news. This cornerstone of international law, guaranteeing ships of all nations can sail, trade, and operate freely on the high seas and through international straits, as enshrined in UNCLOS, is under threat. But if governments are still pointing fingers, then there is, at least, a legal principle still in play to defend. The immediate geopolitical and security threats to maritime trade are self-evident right now from the Strait of Hormuz to the Baltic, to the South China Sea. But the long-term consequences of eroding the rights of innocent passage carry a potentially bigger risk to the global economy. Have these consequences been properly thought through by those that threaten to upend the principle of freedom of navigation? Joining Richard on the podcast are: Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Kristina Siig, professor of maritime law and law of the Sea, University of Southern Denmark Charlie Brown, senior analyst, United Against Nuclear Iran Robert Beckman, emeritus professor, ocean law and policy programme, National University of Singapore Ian Ralby, founder, IR Consilium

SHORTLY before IMO’s 21st Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships and its 84th Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting, two leading environmental researchers warn that those meetings’ expected focus on biofuels will not solve shipping’s carbon emissions problems. As Comer explains, decisions on which fuels will qualify under any IMO climate policy are being developed now, along with their corresponding lifecycle assessment guidelines. Any mistake in drafting those guidelines will take decades to fix, he predicts but, as they stand, they do not account for the emissions that correspond to the ‘indirect land use change’ emissions linked to biofuel production, he says. Menezes underlines in the podcast the importance of considering the social and economic sustainability aspects of biofuels and explains why she believes that, if IMO ignores these impacts of biofuels, “we risk a transition that might look green on paper, but creates significant negative impacts on health, pollution and local economies”. Both speakers explain that biofuel might appear attractive to regulators because of its cost, but they say that, if shipping adopts biofuel, global demand for it will triple by 2035, leading to significant impacts on other food prices and availability and to environmental damage caused as more land is turned over to its production. In their podcast, they also raise a range of other concerns; for example, making biofuels from waste products might perversely encourage fraud and the creation of more waste, Menezes says. She is also concerned about biomethane, which poses the same climate risks as its conventional counterpart as a result of methane slip — which is 80 times more potent than CO2. To produce biofuels in a sustainable way requires “really strong protections”, Comer says, for example to prevent fraud during its production and to protect human rights, water quality and other environmental aspects. Such models already exist, he says, citing the International Civil Aviation Organization and the FuelEU Maritime regulation. He goes on to say that e-fuels made using green hydrogen are the best zero-carbon fuels, rather than biofuels. And Menezes reminds listeners that net zero fuels are not the only way to reduce shipping’s emissions. The starting point, she says, should be “the prioritisation of speed reduction and wind propulsion. These are some of the most effective tools we have”.

This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast is brought to you by Veson. Find out more at www.veson.com/decarb-guide FREEDOM of navigation — the legal principle that states ships from any country have the right to sail freely in international waters — is under attack. It has been for some time. Long before the Strait of Hormuz became the latest global chokepoint to be weaponised a confluence of geopolitical shifts, security threats and an accelerating frequency of legal assaults have been eroding this fundamental principle. And this is not some arcane point of law. This is the legal principle upon which globalised trade is built. Without maritime security, there can be no global security. Without Freedom of navigation there can be no globalised trade. For the first time since the Cold War, maritime trade lanes have become contested zones and the rules-based order that shipping has previously relied on to protect it has started to disintegrate. The once unthinkable, but entirely predictable closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has alerted the world once again to the fragility of global supply chains. But this is no anomaly. From the Red and Black Seas to the Baltic and the Taiwan Strait: shipping’s access to trade lanes is increasingly coming under fire while a political and legal war is being waged in the background to redefine what is and is not acceptable under the law of the sea. Just over a year ago when we first raised this question about the future of freedom of navigation in this podcast, our assembled experts were concerned about what happens next. Maritime security has taken a nosedive since then and trade is increasingly being geopolitically conditioned – so over the next two editions of this podcast, Lloyd’s List will again ask whether the concept of concept of freedom of navigation is under threat… Joining Richard on this week’s podcast are: Sal Mercogliano, founder, What’s Going on With Shipping? Ian Ralby, founder, IR Consilium Caroline Tuckett, associate fellow, Royal United Services Institute

AS the conflict in the Middle East continues, the full effects on global shipping markets are beginning to become clearer. This week’s episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast once again come to you from our weekly briefing on the Middle East crisis, featuring our journalists and analysts. There’s a focus on the container market and shadow fleet impact, as well as an update on the volume of traffic and operability of ports in the region. Featuring in this week’s episode are: Richard Meade, editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s Lis Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst, Lloyd’s List Cichen Shen, APAC editor, Lloyd’s List Neil Dekker, senior analyst, Infospectrum Watch the full briefing here: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/5273976/D81639300040BBFB6B5988BC9F28135E

COLLECTING data to meet emissions regulations is good for business, two guests from 90POE tell listeners to this latest Lloyd’s List Intelligence podcast. Dhara Patel, Head of Product Performance at the maritime technology provider, 90POE — a name that reflects shipping’s role in transporting 90% of everything — and its Senior Advisor for Performance, Dimitris Argyros, argue that the data that must be collected and reported to meet IMO and regional regulators can also give shipowners and operators significant commercial advantages. Mr Argyros refers to a number of regulations that rely on fuel consumption — and thus emissions — data, in particular for IMO’s Data Collection System (DCS) and the EU’s Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) Regulation. Complying with the latter effectively provides a licence to operate, he says. Ms Patel also acknowledges the operational significance of these regulatory requirements, saying that when talking to fleet managers, it is “really striking... how quickly the conversation is shifting from a compliance conversation to a... financial budgeting conversation.” Those discussions find a particular focus around the need for a “clear strategy around emissions” to avoid the penalties for non-compliance with, in particular, the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). For a large fleet, these could amount to millions of euros per year, she says. At least with the EU ETS and its FuelEU Maritime regulation, their application is clear, Mr Argyros says. Based on factors including a carbon price coupled with compliance penalties or surpluses, “it’s quite easy to quantify [their] impact,” he says. But when it comes to the IMO’s annual Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII), “it gets a bit more interesting”, because vessels with lower ratings are less attractive in the market, he says, with charter parties often requiring a ship to be returned with the same CII rating as when it was delivered. Ms Patel offers some comments in the podcast based on feedback from compliance managers who are “having to deal with multiple reporting frameworks simultaneously” while managing emissions, planning voyages and optimising their commercial planning, which “leads to an increased demand in having the right data near real time”. She believes that this is where platforms such as 90 POE’s OpenOcean STUDIO can simplify management of multiple systems, each generating their own data that might be stored in separate siloes. By making all this accessible, she says that the data that has been collected for compliance can be used to discern “real time actionable insights.” This approach will be especially significant in the future, Mr Argyros suggests, as new fuels come into use and if IMO tightens its CII thresholds. Looking ahead, he is not hopeful of IMO and EU emissions requirements becoming aligned, “and that’s the real challenge,” he concludes.

THE conflict in the Middle East is entering its second full week, and shipping continues to find itself on the frontlines. Vessels have been attacked and seafarers have paid with their lives, as missiles are exchanged back and forth over the Middle East Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is at the very centre of this conflict’s consequences. The narrow chokepoint is critical to global energy supply, and traffic through it has slowed to a trickle. So is the strait itself effectively closed to shipping? Will owners take the risk to secure huge charter rates? How is the insurance sector providing cover for those that do want to transit the strait? Listen to the episode and register for the webinar on demand to get the answers to these questions and many more. Joining Richard on this week’s podcast are Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst, Lloyd’s List Cichen Shen, APAC editor, Lloyd’s List Tomer Raanan, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List David Osler, law and marine insurance editor, Lloyd’s List Register for Lloyd’s List’s briefing on the Strait of Hormuz here: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/5264575/E998B50EC5FF87C27028010CCA885055 This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast is brought to you by Veson. Find out more at www.veson.com/decarb-guide

This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast is brought to you by Veson. Find out more at www.veson.com/decarb-guide The 2024/2025 P&I policy year came to a close as it always does on the stroke of midday on February 20, marking the culmination of the annual ritual known as the renewal round. The hard deadline is the date by which 85% to 90% of the world fleet must seal its maritime liability insurance cover for the coming 12 months. Admittedly, it wasn’t an earth-shattering experience. NorthStandard managing director Jeremy Grose even characterised it to me as – in his words - a low-excitement renewal. A number of clubs have proudly proclaimed health growth in entered tonnage, well in excess of the growth in the world fleet. Mathematically, that means there must be losers among the 12 affiliates that make up the International Group of P&I Clubs. But no-one has publicly admitted any shrinkage yet. There were few dramatic moves between clubs, at least that we know of. If anybody emerged as the winner, it was Norway’s Skuld, which picked up business from some big name owners, including SK Shipping, CMA CGM and Oldendorff. There were also suggestions that two British clubs came under a bit of pressure, which may be reflected when they eventually unveil their underwriting positions. But it seems a good time to take stock of what is going on in the sector. David is joined on this week’s episode by: Thomas Nordberg, chief executive, The Swedish Club Julian South, managing director, Wilson Europe Sachin Bhojani, associate director, S&P Global Ratings

The shadow fleet has started the year under pressure. Millions of barrels of unsold Iranian and Russian crude have accumulated in storage due to buyers switching to unsanctioned barrels at reasonable prices. But as the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine looms, a step change in sanctions enforcement has the potential to disrupt shadow fleet trades much more dramatically. The US is rumoured to be looking at more shadow fleet targets to intercept and usher off into the scrapyards. Meanwhile, there is a crackdown looming in Europe, and this time they are serious. The EU’s long-trailed shift to a full maritime services ban still have hit a few political hurdles, but the immediate direction of EU policy promises to significantly ratchet up the sanctions imposed on Russian oil. This increased pressure coincides with an influx of shadow fleet tonnage back into the Russian flag, a lot of which switched following US intervention in Venezuela. That Moscow is keeping a closer eye on its fleet may be evidence that Europe’s pressure (not to mention US boardings) is working and the shadow fleet is beginning to feel the heat. Speaking on this week’s edition of the Lloyd’s List podcast: Bridget Diakun, Senior Risk and Compliance Analyst Tomer Raanan, Maritime Risk Analyst Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief

Synmax chief executive officer Eric Anderson joins Lloyd’s List Intelligence global head of compliance and regulatory affairs Eric Orsini to discuss how satellite-derived intelligence is becoming essential in offering ‘ground truth’ evidence for illicit activities being conducted in the maritime space.