Michael Burry’s Warning, AI Math Reality, and the Hollowing Out of “Core”

International markets are leading and according to DWS’s Aram Babikian, we’re still in the early innings. In part 1 of this Lead-Lag Deep Dive Series, Melanie Schaeffer sits down with Aram to explore why Europe and Japan are gaining momentum, what’s structurally different this time, and how two key XTrackers ETFs, HDEF and DBEF, are positioned for 2025–2026.They break down:- Why Europe, especially Germany, is entering a new era of investment- Japan’s wage growth, inflation stabilization & corporate reforms- How DBEF helps reduce currency-driven volatility- Why advisors are using a 50/50 split between HDEF & DBEF- The global policy shifts creating long-term opportunity- What investors should expect in 2025, 2026 and beyondStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down Michael Burry’s warnings about depreciation manipulation, inflated AI earnings, and the concentration risk dominating today’s market.From the speed of chip innovation to the widening gap between revenue and AI CapEx, Cogswell explains why valuations at the top of the S&P 500 may be far more stretched than investors realize — and why diversified, valuation-discipline strategies could be the antidote to extreme concentration.In this episode:– Why extending depreciation cycles may be inflating mega-cap earnings– How today’s top 10 S&P names are valued above the peak of the tech bubble– What investors misunderstand about investing in AI– Why Running Oak has reduced tech exposure despite an AI revolution– How passive flows have hollowed out the core of the U.S. equity marketLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#RunningOak #Markets #TechValuations #AIBubble #PassiveInvesting #RiskManagement #Equities #InvestingStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Alex Shahidi, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Evoke Advisors, to unpack the structural forces reshaping markets — from persistent inflation to weakening growth, rising deficits, and the return of macro volatility.From the limitations of the traditional 60-40 portfolio to the misunderstood mechanics behind risk parity, Shahidi explains how investors can build portfolios that survive multiple economic regimes without relying on forecasts or market timing.In this episode:– Why inflation volatility poses the biggest risk to portfolios today– How the past decade created dangerous concentration in equities– Why most investors misunderstand what true diversification means– How risk parity protects against extreme macro outcomes– How RPAR expresses a balanced, multi-regime investment frameworkLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#RiskParity #Diversification #Inflation #RPAR #Markets #EvokeAdvisors #PortfolioConstruction #MacroInvestingStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to break down what Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter means for mega-cap tech, why markets fade after earnings season, and the implications for dividend stocks, preferreds, and small caps as rate expectations shift.From valuation pressure in momentum names to tightening money supply and the path of Fed policy, Hatfield explains where he sees opportunity as volatility resets — and why income strategies may be entering their strongest stretch of the cycle.In this episode:– Why strong tech earnings often lead to short-term market weakness– How Bitcoin and leveraged crypto products spill over into tech volatility– Why dividend-heavy large caps offer resilience in rotation periods– How preferreds and corporate bonds can outperform into 2026– The setup for small-cap value once Fed cuts beginLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed sits down with Cole Wenner from KraneShares to break down the rise of humanoid robots and why the theme is moving from cool demos to real-world deployment. Cole explains embodied intelligence, the labor and aging-population pressures driving demand, and where humanoids are likely to show up first — warehouses, factories, hospitals, and eventually the home.They walk through the three parts of the KOID approach: the “brain” (AI and semiconductors), the “body” (motors, sensors, actuators, materials), and the integrators building full robots. Cole also highlights why many of the most investable opportunities sit inside the global components supply chain, where costs are falling fast across LiDAR, motors, and compute.The conversation also covers timelines, pilot programs, cost bottlenecks, and how US strength in AI and China’s manufacturing advantage could speed adoption.In this episode:• Why humanoids are becoming practical now• First real-world use cases• The KOID framework: brain, body, integrators• Component companies driving early value• What needs to improve for mass adoptionLead-Lag Live brings you conversations with the people shaping global markets. Follow the show and comment with the first task you’d want a humanoid to handle.#KOID #Robotics #HumanoidRobots #AI #Automation #KraneShares #Investing #TechTrendsStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed talks with Henry Greene from KraneShares about how recent changes in US–China trade incentives are improving the outlook for China’s tech sector and why it matters for investors.They discuss the rise of AI in China — including DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen models — and how letting companies train AI on their own data could boost cloud adoption. Henry also explains China’s push into robotics and how it fits alongside US leadership in chips and software.To bring it back to portfolios, Henry breaks down why KWEB tends to react strongly to policy headlines, how KLIP uses that volatility to generate monthly income, and simple ways to combine the two depending on your goals.In this episode:• What’s changing in US–China trade• China’s growing AI ecosystem• Why enterprise fine-tuning matters• How robotics and chips fit into the story• How KWEB behaves during policy shifts• How KLIP turns volatility into incomeLead-Lag Live brings you real conversations with the people shaping global markets. Subscribe for more insights that cut through the noise.#KWEB #KLIP #ChinaTech #AIinChina #EmergingMarkets #Investing #KraneShares #MarketInsightsStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Steven Rossi, Founder and CEO of Worksport, to break down the company’s clean-energy transformation — including the long-awaited launch of the COR portable power system and the SOLIS solar tonneau cover.Steven explains how COR’s modular batteries, onboard inverter system, and solar integration are designed to create a new category in portable power — one that serves contractors, overlanders, EV owners, and emergency-preparedness users with a scalable nano-grid you can take anywhere. He also shares Worksport’s roadmap for growth, manufacturing strategy, and how SOLIS + COR work together as a complete energy ecosystem.In this episode:– How the COR power system works — and why it’s built to scale– Why modular batteries and a centralized hub change the game for portability– How SOLIS integrates with COR to create a mobile solar nano-grid– Why Worksport is betting on clean, portable energy as its core business– The growth roadmap ahead as the company pushes into 2025 and beyondLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#Worksport #COR #SOLIS #CleanEnergy #PortablePower #EVTrucks #RenewableEnergyStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead Lag Live, I sit down with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, to break down the renewed momentum behind emerging markets and the forces driving performance across global tech and e commerce.From valuation gaps and dollar depreciation to sector leadership shifts, Ahern shares how EM growth factors and specifically the KEMQ ETF are positioned to benefit from a structural rebalancing away from overstretched US valuations.In this episode:– Why emerging markets are regaining leadership after a decade of underperformance– How tech and e commerce have reshaped the EM index composition– The valuation divergence between US tech and EM tech– Why ADR volatility distorts fundamentals and why local shares matter– How investors should size EM exposure and position KEMQ in a portfolioLead Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#LeadLagLive #EmergingMarkets #KraneShares #GlobalTech #KEMQStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

n this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, to break down the pivotal shift happening inside China’s equity markets. A Trump–Xi truce, policy stabilization, and a surge in cloud and AI revenues are driving fresh optimism into Chinese tech — and Brendan explains why global investors are quietly reallocating back into KWEB.From improving CPI and government action on involution to cloud-driven AI monetization, semiconductor risks, and the new wave of international inflows, Brendan lays out the forces reshaping China’s market narrative after years of pessimism.In this episode:– Why China’s cloud and AI revenue growth is outpacing expectations– How anti-involution policy is stabilizing competition and lifting margins– Why global investors — especially Europe and Asia — are rotating back into China– Where KWEB sees opportunity across online video, entertainment, and emerging tech– Why semiconductor valuations demand caution despite the broader tech rebound– How the Trump–Xi détente may open the door to further policy normalizationLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#LeadLagLive #KWEB #KraneShares #ChinaTech #AI #EmergingMarkets #Investing #MarketsStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down once again with Si Katara, Founder and CEO of TappAlpha, to dive deeper into how daily option overlays are redefining the balance between growth, income, and risk management.Since our last conversation, markets have shifted fast. AI valuations have cooled, volatility has returned, and investors are rethinking how to generate income without sacrificing upside. Si shares how TappAlpha’s TSPY and TDAQ ETFs are thriving in this environment, giving advisors and investors precision, flexibility, and true control over their equity exposure.In this episode:– Why volatility-based income is replacing bond-based income as rates fall– How daily options overlays outperform traditional 30-day strategies– The “pilot course correction” analogy that defines TappAlpha’s edge– What makes TSPY and TDAQ fundamentally different from other covered call ETFs– How TappAlpha is scaling to new products, including light-levered and weekly-pay ETFsLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show