Episode 435: PODCAST: US Venezuela operation raises long-term questions for global oil market

The US military operation in Venezuela at the start of 2026 resulting in the capture of president Nicolas Maduro had a modest immediate impact on oil prices. However, questions raised by these events are highly consequential for global markets and the future geopolitical power balance.Shares in some US-listed oil companies rose sharply after the operation, but who will be the real winners and losers in the long term? What are the implications for global oil and gas markets, amid protests rocking Iran and the possibility other resource-rich countries and territories such as Canada, Colombia, Greenland or Mexico could be on Washington’s target list? Senior reporter Aura Sabadus has invited ICIS global crude oil editor Barney Gray and senior oil analyst David Jorbenaze to reflect on latest developments and the long-term outlook for markets.  

The loss of Russian gas imports, associated long-term capacity bookings and the reversal of gas flows in central and eastern Europe have led to soaring transmission tariffs and inevitably heated debates.  After decades of operating on a fairly simple business model, gas grid operators, regulators, traders and consumers are faced with multiple dilemmas on how to minimise costs while also ensuring revenue to meet challenges.  A patchwork of different views and approaches has emerged, often to the detriment of consumers, raising questions whether the EU’s network codes still provide the answer to managing complex situations. In this interview, Walter Boltz, former head of Austrian regulator E-Control, tells ICIS senior reporter Aura Sabadus that an altogether new vision is required that will require the involvement of the European Commission, ACER and ENTSOG.  

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be moving up a gear from 2026 when EU importers are expected to purchase and surrender CBAM certificates to cover the embedded emissions of imported carbon-intensive goods.Regulations will impact Energy Community contracting parties such as Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the West Balkans countries either through their exports of electricity or other energy-intensive products. ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus has spoken to Peter Pozsgai, lead of the CBAM Readiness Task Force at the Energy Community, to understand the exact implications for both EU importers and Energy Community contracting parties.  

Transmission capacity on the Romanian-Moldovan border was overbid at quarterly auctions held in November as traders have been competing to sell gas to Moldova this winter. Only five years ago such a scenario would have been unthinkable. The country was fully reliant on Russian gas and depended heavily on Russian-controlled Transnistria for electricity supplies. After multiple energy crises triggered by Russia since then, Moldova has fast-tracked the implementation of EU-aligned reforms. Within less than six months it will start its gradual liberalisation of the gas sector and by 2027 it expects to couple its electricity spot market with that of the EU. However, as Constantin Borosan, director of energy regulator ANRE tells ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus, there are still many challenges ahead. These include ensuring the correct framework for functional power and gas markets, expanding the border gas capacity with Romania and Ukraine to facilitate regional transit and thinking long-term about the future of Transnistria’s energy arrangements.    

The EU is moving closer towards the development of a real-time electricity market thanks to critical tools such as the Platform for the International Coordination of Automated Frequency Restoration and Stable System Operation, (PICASSO) and, more recently, the launch of quarter hourly trading intervals. Somewhat like Picasso’s art, the platform is a bold attempt to harmonise the EU’s diverse markets and bring efficiency in an ecosystem increasingly dominated by renewable generation, which will require more real-time responses as this capacity expands. However, in recent months, it has raised many concerns because of price volatility, with some countries delaying its adoption. Italy, however, seems to be moving in opposite direction, preparing to rejoin after pulling out. In this podcast, energy market specialists Giovanni Musella and Tatjana Jovanovic talk to Aura Sabadus about the problems that have been flagged by participants and the solutions proposed to smooth out operations. 

Ukraine has been a major buyer of natural gas on European hubs this year, scrambling to replenish heavily depleted stocks. As war-related risks persist it is still looking to secure more volumes even as it tries to protect domestic production and increase output in challenging conditions. In this interview, Artem Petrenko, secretary general of the Association of Gas Producers of Ukraine tells Aura Sabadus about the country’s preparations ahead of winter and the first steps taken as part of a US-Ukraine mineral deal that could attract investments in its upstream sector over the upcoming years. 

Senior reporter Clare Pennington interviews ICIS senior data analyst Fei Xu and senior Asia LNG reporter Paula Xiao to unpick what is going on in Japan’s LNG market. Japan is one of the world's largest LNG buyers, surpassed only by China in recent years and still vying for top spot as the world’s largest LNG importer. But in the long term, some buyers think Japan might be overpositioned, ploughing too much money into its LNG purchase power. Both China and Japan are firmly over-contracted at the moment, but Japan’s expiring contracts will place the latter in an under-contracted position by 2028. ICIS expects Japanese companies to sign more long-term contracts in the coming 2 years to fill this gap. But with wider energy investment plans, including in nuclear, how should Japan approach this changing market?

High capacity booking interests for gas exports from Romania to Hungary for the next ten years indicate that regional companies may be preparing for the start of Black Sea gas production from 2027. Last year, Romania became the EU’s largest gas producer, a position that is likely to be further consolidated when output at the Neptun Deep bloc is set to start. Nevertheless, it hasn’t always been plain sailing for the project, which has faced political and regulatory headwinds over the years, and first volumes are set to reach markets at a time of numerous changes including surging global LNG production. In this latest podcast, Franck Neel, executive board member of OMV Petrom, the project operator, tells Aura Sabadus about latest developments at Neptun Deep, the company’s regional expansion plans and why Romanian Black Sea gas will have a competitive edge. 

The Energy Community celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. Established in the aftermath of the Balkans war and the accession of many central European countries to the EU, the institution faces similar challenges now, being instrumental in supporting Ukraine’s energy resilience in the face of Russian attacks and assisting contracting parties on their path towards EU energy market integration. In this interview, Energy Community director, Artur Lorkowski, tells ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus about the pending opening of the EU energy chapter for Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina as part of their accession negotiations as well as the work done to engage observer countries such as Armenia and Norway. 

Europe LNG reporter Clare Pennington asks US counterpart Emily Burleson how the USTR will target Chinese vessels and how it plans to build its own LNG carrier industry