Episode 423: Crude oil market outlook for Q1 2025

High capacity booking interests for gas exports from Romania to Hungary for the next ten years indicate that regional companies may be preparing for the start of Black Sea gas production from 2027. Last year, Romania became the EU’s largest gas producer, a position that is likely to be further consolidated when output at the Neptun Deep bloc is set to start. Nevertheless, it hasn’t always been plain sailing for the project, which has faced political and regulatory headwinds over the years, and first volumes are set to reach markets at a time of numerous changes including surging global LNG production. In this latest podcast, Franck Neel, executive board member of OMV Petrom, the project operator, tells Aura Sabadus about latest developments at Neptun Deep, the company’s regional expansion plans and why Romanian Black Sea gas will have a competitive edge. 

The Energy Community celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. Established in the aftermath of the Balkans war and the accession of many central European countries to the EU, the institution faces similar challenges now, being instrumental in supporting Ukraine’s energy resilience in the face of Russian attacks and assisting contracting parties on their path towards EU energy market integration. In this interview, Energy Community director, Artur Lorkowski, tells ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus about the pending opening of the EU energy chapter for Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina as part of their accession negotiations as well as the work done to engage observer countries such as Armenia and Norway. 

Europe LNG reporter Clare Pennington asks US counterpart Emily Burleson how the USTR will target Chinese vessels and how it plans to build its own LNG carrier industry

Gas grid operators on the Trans-Balkan corridor have been working to enable traders to access natural gas via Greek LNG terminals or pipelines for shipments to Ukraine at a unified discounted tariff.The bundled transmission capacity product launched in May could open opportunities for diversification and tightening security of supply.Nevertheless, many traders say the format may not be compliant with EU network codes and insist they had limited information prior to the first auction held in May.As the five TSOs are preparing a new round of auctions, the Greek regulator RAE has started a consultation and companies are expected to submit their views by 9 June 2025.ICIS reporter Aura Sabadus has collected 15 questions from gas traders active regionally and invited Sotirios Bravos (DESFA), Nikola Delev, (Bulgartransgaz), Marius Lupean, (Transgaz), Liviu Duminica, (VMTG) and Andrii Prokofiev (GTSOU) to answer them in detail. 

The electricity blackout which hit the Iberian Peninsula at the end of April has triggered widespread debate about the causes of the outage and risks facing European grids. As an investigation has now been launched, energy expert, Aura Sabadus, spoke to Volodymyr Kudrytksyi, former CEO of the Ukrainian electricity grid operator, Ukrenergo, about the challenges facing Europe’s electricity transmission infrastructure and the lessons it can learn from Ukraine’s unrivalled efforts in keeping the grid stable even in the face of war-related destruction. 

ICIS's Gemma Blundell-Doyle, Energy Market Reporter and Eloise Radley, Deputy Crude Oil Editor, sit down to discuss the main drivers that could influence the global crude oil market in Q1 2025, including OPEC+ supply cuts and Trump's second US presidency. 

Why have charter rates for LNG vessels dropped so dramatically in recent months and what is the outlook for next year? Senior market reporter Clare Pennington and Rob Songer, LNG markets analyst speak with Americas LNG editor Fauzeya Rahman to break down what this means for the shipping market and when the outlook is likely to change. 

Wondering how the upcoming US election could impact US oil production and benchmark crude prices? Listen to Eloise Radley, Senior Market Reporter and Ignacio Sotolongo, Senior Editor at ICIS discuss this topic. 

Germany has announced a higher-than-expected increase in the German storage fee from 1 July, even though the levy is expected to be scrapped at the start of 2025. The announced short-term rise combined with Austria’s OMV warnings about a possible gas supply curtailment amid a court case ruling lifted European gas prices in the second half of May. The almost simultaneous news triggered volatility across hubs as markets remain on edge over the regional supply outlook as the Russian gas transit agreement with Ukraine ends on 1 January 2025. ICIS models show that even in a scenario where flows were fully stopped this winter, European storage facilities should remain at levels that would be higher than the long-term average.  Nevertheless, markets remain sensitive to a number of risks described in this interview by Aura Sabadus with ICIS reporters Irina Breilean, Rob Dalton, Tatjana Jovanovic and Amun Govil-Lie. 

Eloise Radley, Energy Market Reporter, and Ignacio Sotolongo, Senior Editor at ICIS, sit down to discuss how geopolitics has impacted US oil production in recent years and how things could change if we see a new administration in November.