Tom & Mick: Livestock Markets, Restocking and Managing Risk with James Tierney

The Tom & Mick Show is back!! With a timely livestock market update as rain finally arrives across much of eastern Australia and confidence begins returning to the paddock.

Tom and Mick are joined once again by Riverina livestock agent James Tierney from Riverina Livestock Agents to unpack what's happening in the cattle and sheep markets, how producers are approaching restocking, and whether the lessons from recent seasons will influence decision-making this time around.

From record lamb contracts and surging cattle prices to breeder shortages, restocker demand and the outlook for the next 12–24 months, James provides a practical perspective from the front line of the livestock industry.

In this episode:

James Tierney and Riverina Livestock Agents

• Overview of RLA and its role across southern NSW and Victoria
• Operating from Wagga Wagga with a livestock footprint extending across eastern Australia
• Current seasonal conditions across the Riverina and southern Australia
• Why many producers are experiencing one of the strongest starts to winter in recent memory

Livestock markets gaining momentum

• Lamb contracts reaching up to $12.80/kg
• Strong processor demand continuing across both sheep and cattle
• Why cattle markets received a major boost following recent rainfall
• The significant lift seen in southern saleyards over recent weeks

Restocking and rebuilding numbers

• How traders and breeders are approaching the current market
• Why breeder numbers remain well below historical levels
• The impact of drought-driven livestock liquidation over recent years
• Where producers are still finding opportunities in the market

The cattle outlook

• Why many cattle haven't disappeared...  they've simply found a new postcode
• Large movements of livestock from northern regions into southern Australia
• The risks of chasing expensive restocker cattle
• Lessons learned from the cattle market correction of 2023
• Could we see $2,000 weaner steers again?

Sheep markets and supply challenges

• Why sheep producers may be among the biggest beneficiaries of current conditions
• The impact of reduced breeding ewe numbers across Australia
• Strong mutton prices and ongoing supply constraints
• Why retaining breeding stock is becoming increasingly attractive
• James' outlook for lamb and mutton markets over the next two years

Managing risk in a rising market

• The danger of letting green grass drive decision-making
• Why discipline remains critical during periods of optimism
• Balancing opportunity with caution as prices strengthen
• The importance of understanding seasonal risk in livestock enterprises

Feeding systems and future opportunities

• The growing role of containment feeding and on-farm finishing systems
• Why more producers are retaining stock longer rather than selling into weak markets
• The economics of feeding cattle through market downturns
• Building flexibility into livestock businesses

Key takeaways

• Rain has rapidly improved confidence and livestock demand across much of eastern Australia
• Breeder numbers remain historically tight, supporting medium-term market fundamentals
• Sheep supply is likely to remain constrained for several years
• Cattle markets remain highly dependent on seasonal conditions and producer confidence
• Strong markets create opportunities, but discipline and risk management remain essential

This episode is packed with practical market insight for livestock producers, agents, traders and rural businesses navigating changing seasonal conditions. It's a valuable conversation on rebuilding confidence, managing risk and understanding where the next opportunities may emerge across Australia's sheep and cattle sectors.