Metacapital’s Narula on Mortgage Market Shakiness: Credit Crunch

Though we’ve covered the coming (and in some ways already here) technology revolution for the municipal space in many prior episodes, our latest focuses more on the practical application of Artificial Intelligence. In other discussions with vendors, AI has been used to help scale businesses to prime them for growth. In this instance, AI is being used to hopefully generate alpha and provide an edge to the market. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eugene Grinberg, CEO and co-founder of SOLVE, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano.

Tariff-induced uncertainty has rapidly altered the cost of capital for companies across all sectors, with potential for wider spreads to persist. Carlos Mendez, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Crayhill Capital Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to dive into the firm’s focus on commercial finance and renewable infrastructure asset-based lending, and the insulation its defensive approach provides. We discuss Crayhill’s recently announced oversubscribed fund, market dislocations and private credit competition, along with technological adoption and tools for dealing with stress.

The dollar and equity markets remain expensive even after the recent declines, says Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Desai joins host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and associate North American rates strategist Will Hoffman for a discussion about the recent extreme volatility. She thinks focusing on the broader economic outlook and market valuations is a way to stay focused on longer-term returns. Desai examines why the dollar isn’t likely to lose its reserve-currency status.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“I don’t think that we’ve seen the full potential of these deals. What we’re going to see … in the coming years [is] sponsors and companies actually needing to execute on these third-party deals,” says Natasha Tsiouris, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, about keeping the threat of the “deal away” alive in evolving liability management transactions. Tsiouris, in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel at the Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference, shared her perspective on the future of liability management, the mounting pressures on the “deal away,” the shift toward lender consensus and the arrival of private credit restructurings.  The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Wide intraday-trading ranges across markets highlight risks on the downside and sensitivity to any positive news on the upside. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist, discusses tariff-led cross-asset volatility. Measures of equity convexity have spiked and spot-volatility reactivity has increased. Rates volatility has surged, but it’s still below 2022-23 hike-cycle levels.

Building relationships is fundamental to turning around middle-market companies, according to SierraConstellation Partners (SCP) Founder and CEO Lawrence Perkins, as employees are “in the center of the bullseye [and] doing the work every day, taking the calls from the vendors, taking the calls from the analyst, the private equity sponsor...the direct lender.” In his feature interview with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel (7:36), Perkins shares he’s encountering more “distressed by accident” lenders these days, courtesy of the private credit boom, than the “distressed on purpose” ilk. He delves into the differences between Chapter 11, Article 9 sales, and Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors (“ABC”). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel open up with thoughts on April’s market whiplash. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Hertz, J&J, Ardagh, Franchise Group, Yellow Corp and Telesat (67:28). Links mentioned in the podcast: https://www.distressedinvestingconference.com/media-night.html

Given inflation may be a feature of economy in the coming years, real estate and public infrastructure may be places for investors to consider, saysSeema Shah, chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Shah joins host and BI chief US rates strategistIra Jerseyto discuss investment ideas and regions in the midst of market volatility stemming from the tariff war.

The mortgage market may be on the brink of major transformation amid freshly implemented tariffs, proposed deregulation and the potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Deepak Narula, founder and co-chief investment officer of Metacapital Management, to explore emerging opportunities in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They discuss the negative convexity profile for the asset class, prepayment impacts, stagflation scenarios, utilizing machine learning models, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going private and more.

Global markets are struggling to digest the unprecedented economic and financial stability challenges posed by an all-out trade war. Dr.Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to break down his growth and inflation outlook for developed and emerging markets across the globe. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and de-dollarization to the risks posed by private credit and shadow banking.

High yield had good first quarter gains with default rates low but cracks started developing in March even before Liberation day which led to a substantial rout with spreads selling off at record speeds. Will 2Q be a huge loss or will there be a turnaround and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Global Head of Credit Strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Per Wehrmann, Head of European high yield at DWS Investments GmBH. The podcast covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value across asset class (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sector.