US inflation and geopolitics holding back the markets

Eurizon Weekly 29.04.24 The stock market recovered supported by quarterly earnings reports as well as by a macro picture still benefiting from a solid consumption trend. The re-pricing of monetary policy expectations continues Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Laura Dalbosco, of the same team, reports on PMI indicators. Audio recorded on 29 April 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 22.04.24. The risk of a potential escalation in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, in the US in particular, translated into a rather volatile week on all the major markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 15 Apr. 2024. US inflation rose and beat expectations on the upside for the third month in a row, and combined with the risk of the crisis in the Middle East spreading, with the direct involvement of Iran, fuelled uncertainty among investors. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 April 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 8 April. 2024. In the course of the week, the mix of US macro data and statements made by Fed officials generated renewed uncertainty over the policy rate reduction path. This translated into a marginal rise of government bond yields, while the major stock indices consolidated at their previous levels. Focus will mostly stay on the US market and on the Fed. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.Audio recorded on 8 April, 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact. Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 25 Mar. 2024. The much-anticipated FOMC meeting was last week’s main event. The US central bank Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, and raised both its growth and inflation forecasts. During the meeting, the Fed reasserted its intention to implement three rate cuts in 2024, thus confirming the announcement made in December and removing concerns of a potential reduction to two moves: the message was swiftly priced in by the stock markets, that performed well in the week. Bonds also performed well, on the shorter end of the curve in particular. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 25 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 15 Mar. 2024. Last week, investor focus was on data on the evolution of prices in the US, the downtrend of which seems to have slowed. Market operator caution prevailed, waiting on the Fed meeting this week to provide greater details on its future monetary policy choices. Expectations for the start and the scope of the interest rate cut cycle are still the main determinant factor of volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 11 Mar. 2024. The markets enjoyed a positive week thanks to the ECB meeting, that confirmed investor expectations, and US labour market data, that while mixed overall, confirmed that the US economy is not overheating at the moment. However, while the markets scored gains, they generally remained rather cautious in waiting on the US inflation reading. Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports Audio recorded on 11 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 4 Mar. 2024.Another positive week, with investors slightly more cautious, in light of the trend of US inflation and ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. The markets are pricing in on the one hand some uncertainty over the timeline of the convergence of inflation back to target, and on the other macro data that confirm the resilience of the overall picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 4 Mar. 2024

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.