Rising rates and weak equity markets with inflation and Iran | Eurizon Weekly

A positive start to the week for financial markets, driven by the nearing of an agreement between the USA and Iran. This has now been confirmed by both parties, though not yet formalised. Equity markets are up, while government bond yields have edged slightly lower, maintaining a cautious approach. The formal signature of the agreement remains a key focus for markets in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, it remains crucial for investors and central banks to assess the impact of the oil shock on inflation and growth. Attention is already shifting to the details of the deal and the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, both of which are key elements for the future stability of the region. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 15 June 2026. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

Over the past week, financial markets have shown weakness due to tensions between Israel and Iran and strong US labour data. The resilience of the US economy has heightened fears of a Fed that remains inflexible on interest rates, triggering profit-taking, particularly in the US technology sector. European indices limited their losses thanks to lower exposure to tech stocks, while emerging markets ended the week lower. On the bond front, yields have risen in both the United States and Europe. Oil is also up, returning toward $95 per barrel, along with the dollar against the euro. In the coming days, attention will be focused on the ECB meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate hike is expected. US inflation data will also be very important. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 8 June 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insightsBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The scenario assumes the continuation of the global economic cycle, supported by investments in technology. In the event of a US-Iran agreement, there is room for a decline in oil prices; however, central banks remain vigilant to contain any second-round effects on inflation. Discover Eurizon's positioning for June 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 28.5.2016. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights:https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercatiBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page:https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

The week was positive for the markets, thanks to the absence of new tensions in the Middle East and progress in negotiations, which seem to be moving closer to an agreement. The drop in oil prices, back to around 90 dollars, has supported both equity markets and government rates, with a marginal decline in yields. The dollar has weakened against the euro, reflecting a context of reduced risk aversion. In the United States, the economy remains stable, while in Europe, emerging signs of deterioration are linked to high energy costs. The focus remains on the impact of the Iranian crisis on inflation and future monetary policies. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 25.05.2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

Global equities were weak over the week, following a highly positive earnings season. The lack of developments in Iran and rising inflation expectations, driven by WTI crude oil prices rising again over one hundred dollars per barrel, have resulted in significant increases in government bond yields. Oil prices and the future trajectory of inflation, which, after all, remain the core focus of central banks’ upcoming monetary policy decisions, are currently one of the main points of market attention. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 18 May 2026. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

Global equity indices closed moderately higher, supported by the continuation of talks in the Middle East and the parties’ willingness to avoid further military escalation, at least for now. After the markets initially responded positively to the US proposal, WTI crude oil prices have since quickly rebounded to around $100 per barrel following Iran’s rejection. The uncertainty over the resolution time of the Middle East crisis has had a limited impact on equity markets, which last week focused primarily on corporate earnings and macroeconomic data. The focus remains firmly on the future measures of central banks with regard to inflation expectations, against a geopolitical backdrop which, while free of new military tensions, appears likely to require time for negotiations to consolidate. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 11 May 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The scenario assumes the continuation of the global economic cycle, with a further decline in oil prices. The structural cycle of technological investments is acting as a support, compensating for the political instability. Discover Eurizon's positioning for May 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 28.4.2026. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercatiBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page:  https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

Investors remain focused on the crisis in the Middle East: anticipation of the outcome of negotiations, combined with the slight rise in oil prices, has marginally weakened European equity markets. In the US, meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached new highs thanks to the strong performance of quarterly earnings. Emerging markets indices were also positive. Slight rise in government rates, in both the US and Europe. The resilience of the macroeconomic framework, in light of oil prices staying higher than expected for a longer period than anticipated, remains the primary focus for investors and central banks. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 27.4.2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

Over the past week, news of possible reopenings of the Strait of Hormuz and attempts to breach the US naval blockade have increased media volatility, but without significantly impacting markets. Global equity markets have actually responded positively, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs. Weaker start to the week due to renewed tensions in the Strait. The government rates market remains uncertain: initially supported by the decline in oil prices (and thus in inflation expectations), it later felt the impact of the renewed closure of the Strait. With the start of the earnings season, which has been solid so far, the evolution of the Iranian crisis remains the primary focus for investors, alongside inflation outlooks and the monetary policies of central banks. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 20.4.2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

The Iran crisis remains at the heart of market dynamics. Attempts to establish a ceasefire have been welcomed. A reduction in attacks and reprisals has enabled negotiations to continue, amid ultimatums and extensions. Despite the uncertainty and a slight rise in oil prices, equity markets ended the week in positive territory, while government bond yields declined. Despite a marginal increase in inflation expectations stemming from the Iranian crisis, the overall macro framework remains resilient and does not appear to be compromised for investors at this stage.Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon.Audio recorded on 07.04.2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en-GB/market-analysis Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/video/promo/disclaimer