Positioning for October 2025

Eurizon Weekly, 13.10.2025. During the week, markets remained relatively stable amid the US government shutdown, anticipation of the earnings season and the truce in the Middle East. However, this stability was disrupted on Friday, when the Trump administration renewed its threat to increase tariffs on China. However, statements from the US government over the weekend have sought to soften the tone, following a familiar pattern. In Europe, the issue of the formation of an executive to approve the budget law in France remains key. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 13.10.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 06.10.2025. Stock markets posted a positive weekly performance despite the start of the shutdown in the USA: at the moment, the market does not seem particularly concerned, instead expecting an agreement to be reached within a reasonable time frame. Investor focus remains on the US labour market, which will determine the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts, and on the next season of quarterly earnings. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 06.10.2025

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. US employment data and investment plans in Europe will be monitored in the immediate future.The fact that the Fed is once again reducing rates is an element of support for the economic cycle. Discover Eurizon's positioning for October 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 25 September 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 22.09.2025. The week was dominated by the Fed: the US central bank confirmed that, given the modest impact of the trade war on inflation and the slowdown in the labour market, it now considers it appropriate to resume the normalisation of short-term rates. The market expects rate cuts to continue, with a target of 3% during 2026 (Fed rates currently stand at 4.25%). Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 22.09.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 15.09.2025. A positive week overall for equity markets, with US inflation data not altering investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin a monetary easing cycle. The upcoming Fed meeting remains the focus for investors, particularly the timing of interest rate cuts and forecasts for the US economy. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 15.09.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 8 September 2025. US labour market data has again shown signs of a slowdown, leading investors to strengthen expectations that the Fed might resume cuts in September and then continue with cuts at a faster pace than previously estimated. Yields on government bonds, particularly US, are falling, with stock markets remaining at the previous week's levels. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 08 September 2025.  

Eurizon Weekly, 02.09.2025. Global stock markets down slightly in a week that saw a renewed focus on political issues. Profit-taking, however, follows three extremely positive weeks in August, with stock markets reaching new highs due to expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The stock markets also benefited from trade agreements signed by the USA with Japan and the EU, while macro data offered reassuring signs. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 02 September 2025.  

Eurizon Weekly, 04.08.2025. A week characterised by the announcement of new tariffs by the US administration against countries with which an agreement has not yet been reached, surprising markets that had expected a more constructive continuation of the negotiation phase. Positive US quarterly figures and US GDP data supported markets during the first part of the week.  The weakening labour market, however, led to a drop in US government bond yields and consequently in the dollar, which interrupted the phase of rapid consolidation that had begun at the start of the week. Investors now expect the Fed to cut rates as early as September. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 04 August 2025.

“The Globe”, Eurizon’s view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. The macro-impact of the trade agreements between the US and its partners, the evolution of fiscal policy measures in the US and EU, and the impact on monetary policy choices are yet to be assessed. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 29 July 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 21.07.2025. US trade tariffs are still at the centre of market dynamics: the as-yet unknown outcome of the negotiation phase is making investors cautious, although the background macro data and the quarterly earnings season are highlighting the impressive resilience of the American economy. The focus is now on the next decisions of the Fed, which will need to define future monetary policy. This week also sees the ECB meeting, which is expected to be an interim session, pending assessment of the advisability of further rate cuts. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 21 July 2025.