Markets cautious in the face of Fed and AI investments

Eurizon Weekly, 15.12.2025. Over the course of the week, market attention focused on the Fed meeting, which decided on a 25bps rate cut. However, it also signalled a possible pause in early 2026 due to the resilience of the economic recovery and persistently high inflation. The below-expectations results of a major US company linked to artificial intelligence (AI) have reignited concerns about the sector; however, global markets have shown substantial stability overall. The themes of returns on AI investments and the resilience of the global macroeconomic framework remain central for investors. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 15.12.2025.  Explore news and our in-depth analysis on economics, finance and current affairs:https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights

Eurizon Weekly, 09.12.2025. During the week, global equity markets remained stable, with investors taking a cautious stance ahead of the next Fed meeting. Government yields have risen thanks to stronger-than-expected US macro data, despite delays caused by the shutdown. In the absence of a comprehensive picture of the US economy, investor attention is on the next Fed meeting, with a rate cut already priced in and the focus on future monetary policy decisions. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 9.12.2025

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. Following the shutdown, the resumption of macro data releases will enable an assessment of the US economy, which is showing signs of a labour market slowdown, while consumer spending and investment remain resilient. In the Eurozone, growth is stabilising, consumer spending remains resilient and investment is growing, providing a basis for further support in 2026, in view of the defence and infrastructure plans. Discover Eurizon's positioning for December 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 26.11.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 24.11.2025. The week saw a slight increase in equity market volatility, driven by uncertainty over the sustainability of margins linked to investments in the US technology sector and expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy decisions in light of US labour market data. This has all resulted in a decline in US government bond yields, while European government rates have remained stable. While the US macroeconomic outlook remains unclear, investor focus remains on the Fed’s next moves, particularly the possibility of a further rate cut in December, which does not yet appear to be fully priced in. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 24.11.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 17.11.2025. The US Congress has finally approved the extension of the spending bill until 30 January, ending the shutdown and allowing the publication of economic data that had been suspended in previous weeks. The wait for labour market data – expected to provide clarity on the true health of the US economy – combined with statements from several Fed officials, which have contributed to tempering expectations of a rate cut in December, has led investors to adopt a cautious stance. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 17.11.2025.  

Eurizon Weekly, 10.11.2025. As the US shutdown continues, through now finally seeming close to an end, and with the consequent lack of publication of many macroeconomic data, investor attention has focused on the limited available data relating to the US labour market. These have shown slight weakness, leaving open questions about the impact that the development of artificial intelligence will have on American employment. Uncertainty has translated into a marginal increase in volatility, without excessive movements, and profit-taking on equity markets. However, the latter are already positively pricing in the news of the approaching end of the shutdown, as reflected in this week’s early trading. Investor focus has now shifted to the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions, which must contend with a labour market that appears to be weakening. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 10.11.2025.  

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. We await the end of the shutdown to assess the strength of the US economy. However, indicators coming from corporate profits remain positive. In Europe, the focus is on investment plans in defence and infrastructure. Discover Eurizon's positioning for November 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 28.10.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 27.10.2025. The mix of positive corporate results, solid macro data and hopes for a US-China détente has reduced volatility in equity markets. All major global indices, particularly those of the US and Emerging Markets, closed the week in positive territory. Market attention is now focused on the Fed meeting, where another rate cut is expected. Attention also remains on the continuation of the earnings season, particularly those of the US technology sector. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 27.10.2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 20.10.2025. In the US, the ongoing shutdown and the subsequent suspension of the publication of key macroeconomic data has led investors to focus on different areas. The revelation of fraud in the US car finance sector generated marginal volatility, which was immediately contained since it was not considered capable of affecting the entire consumer financial system, and also thanks to reassurances from the Fed, which confirmed a process of gradual monetary easing. The Fed's accommodating stance and falling oil prices are supporting the global economy as we await a clearer picture. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 20.10.2025

Eurizon Weekly, 13.10.2025. During the week, markets remained relatively stable amid the US government shutdown, anticipation of the earnings season and the truce in the Middle East. However, this stability was disrupted on Friday, when the Trump administration renewed its threat to increase tariffs on China. However, statements from the US government over the weekend have sought to soften the tone, following a familiar pattern. In Europe, the issue of the formation of an executive to approve the budget law in France remains key. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 13.10.2025.