Markets cautious amid oil, Fed and German elections | Eurizon Weekly

During the week of 14-18 September, financial markets showed strong resilience: global equity markets remained largely stable despite geopolitical tensions, high oil prices and political uncertainty in Germany. The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps, reaffirming a cautious and restrictive approach to counter persistent inflation. Bond yields remained elevated but stable, while the dollar strengthened slightly. Investors remain focused on the evolution of the oil market and the start of the corporate earnings season. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 21 September 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

The markets have closely followed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed WTI crude oil above $100, fuelling inflation fears. Equity markets have shown resilience, closing slightly lower, while bond markets have suffered due to rising yields. The ECB has increased rates by 25bps to counter persistent inflation. In the United States, inflation remained at 3.4% year-on-year in August, while the core component slightly exceeded expectations. Investors remain focused on energy price trends, US macro data and future Fed decisions, against a background of persistent inflation but a resilient economy. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 14 September 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insightsBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

The markets have maintained a cautious approach, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the resilience of US macroeconomic data and rising political uncertainty in Germany following the Saxony state election. In this context, US and emerging market equities have shown a largely stable trend, while European indices have recorded a decline. On the bonds front, government bond yields have risen moderately, supported by the resilience of the American economy and persistent inflationary pressures. Oil prices have continued to rise, approaching the $90 per barrel mark, while the euro-dollar exchange rate has remained largely unchanged, at around 1.16. In the United States, the solidity of economic indicators and the labour market have confirmed the good pace of growth, keeping investor focus firmly on the next moves by central banks. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 7 July 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insightsBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

Global equity markets ended the week little changed, but with a slight gain, primarily driven by the recovery in technology stocks. Investor focus has been on the speech made at Jackson Hole by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who seems credible in his commitment to tackling inflation. This has reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes by the end of the year, while at the same time supporting the strengthening of the dollar. Tensions in the Middle East persist in the background, while market focus has now shifted to US labour market data and Eurozone inflation, considered key factors for upcoming central bank decisions. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 31 August 2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insightsBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle. Investment in technology remains a robust pillar of support for economic activity. The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East and questions over the sustainability of profits in the technology sector are causes for concern. In August, the thinning of trading volumes will expose the market to the risk of increased volatility. Discover Eurizon's positioning for August 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis.Audio recorded on 27.7.2026. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

The week was marked by greater caution in the markets due to tensions in the Middle East and the potential risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose without reaching alarming levels, whilst the euro-dollar exchange rate remained stable. The major stock markets closed lower, with weaker performances in Europe and emerging markets, while profit-taking in the technology sector was the main factor in the United States. In the bond market, lower-than-expected US inflation resulted in a slight fall in yields, although geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflationary concerns. Investors therefore remain focused on geopolitical developments and the next moves of the central banks. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 20.07.2026.Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

It was a volatile week in the markets, influenced by renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Oil recorded a moderate rise, while the euro/dollar exchange rate remained largely stable, a sign that investors still perceive risk as manageable. European and Asian stock markets have shown greater weakness compared to US markets, supported by the resilience of the US economy and the start of the corporate earnings season. Bond yields also rose slightly, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary risks.  In the next few days, market focus will primarily be on data relating to inflation and consumption in the United States. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 13 July 2026.  Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer

Positive week for financial markets, with both the S&P 500 in the US and major European stock exchanges posting gains. The fall in oil prices and expectations of less restrictive monetary policies have boosted investor confidence. In the United States, the economy continues to show solidity, with industrial activity expanding and the labour market remaining resilient. In Europe, June inflation slowed more than expected, while Germany has announced a new reform plan to support growth. Focus remains firmly on the next moves of central banks, inflation trends and the start of the corporate earnings season. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 6 July 2026.   Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer  

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle. Investment in technology remains a robust pillar of support for economic activity. The fall in oil prices points to a likely further fall in inflation and provides further support for the economic cycle. Discover Eurizon's positioning for July 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis.Audio recorded on 24.6.2026. Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercatiBefore listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page:  https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer 

The markets have taken a positive turn tone thanks to the easing of tensions in the Middle East following the agreement between the US and Iran, wich contributed to a decline in oil prices. The US economy has confirmed its solidity, with retail sales exceeding expectations and consumer spending remaining robust. The Fed has left interest rates unchanged, whilst maintaining a cautious stance and signalling that any cuts could take more time. Over the next few days, attention will focus on data on business confidence, inflation and US consumer spending data. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 22 June 2026.   Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer