Geopolitical tensions hold back markets

‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the global economic cycle continuing. The finalisation of trade agreements and fiscal policy choices in the US and EU, as well as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and oil, are to be monitored. Discover Eurizon's positioning for July 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 25 June 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 23.06.2025. Global financial markets remain at last week’s levels and investors are hanging fire, waiting to assess the developments in the crisis between Israel and Iran which, over the weekend, saw the involvement of the US. The price of oil is rising, while the Fed has confirmed a pause in rate changes, in line with expectations. The mix between growth and inflation, put to the test by trade policies and geopolitical risks, remains the main focus for investors. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 23 June 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 16.06.2025. The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East has slowed global equity markets, whose recovery had been experiencing a phase of consolidation, after partially overcoming the trade tariffs and the issue related to US tax reform. The Federal Reserve will have to take the geopolitical framework into account during its meeting on Wednesday 18 June, where the focus will be on inflation and labour market data. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 16 June 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 09.06.2025. The balance is still positive for global stock exchanges, thanks to the continuing talks on trade tariffs and American macro-data that are, at least for the moment, easing fears of marked slowdown. These factors, together with the still robust labour market data, have also translated into a marginal increase in US government interest rate yields. European rates, on the other hand, are only slightly above previous levels. The ECB has again cut rates by 25 bps. Audio recorded on 9 June 2025.

Positioning for June 2025 ‘The Globe’, Eurizon's investment vision. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the economic cycle as a central hypothesis. In the immediate term, the macro-impact of April’s tensions on trade tariffs, the implications for central banks and the evolution of fiscal policy measures in the US, EU and China are still to be assessed. Discover Eurizon's positioning for June 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 29 May 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 26.05.2025. The stock market was once again affected by the White House announcements on the subject of tariffs, but Trump's statements last week only partially rekindled the volatility, which was already decreasing at the start of this week. The effects that the evolution of tariffs and the US fiscal expansion plan will have on the monetary policy expectations of the Fed and other central banks remain one of the key issues for the market. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 26 May 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 19 May 2025. The week opened with markets, particularly equity markets, quickly pricing in the positive developments in the China/US tariff talks and seeming ready to turn the page on this highly volatile phase to move on to the next item on Trump's electoral agenda – tax reform. Slight rise for US and European rates as they grapple with the new potential scenario of expansionary fiscal policy in the two geographical areas. The dollar continues to recover. The assessment of the actual impacts of tariff volatility on the real economy and expansionary fiscal policies remain key areas of attention for investors. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 19 May 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 12.05.2025. The 90-day suspension of tariffs between the US and China and the constructive tone of negotiations, announced earlier this week, were well received by markets with very positive openings. Investors are now waiting for details of the deals and the next steps to end the trade war. There’s also a focus on assessing the macro impact of the tensions of the last two months in a context of uncertainty that has seen a significant deterioration in confidence indices, especially among consumers. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 12 May 2025.

“The Globe”, Eurizon’s investment view. The baseline scenario sees the US administration’s decisions as the main focus theme. The likeliest outcome is the signing of bilateral agreements although the process may take time. Therefore we confirm an only moderately pro-cyclical approach. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for May 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 05 May 2025.

Eurizon Weekly, 28 Apr. 2025. The global stock markets, and the US in particular, experienced a positive week thanks to the ongoing openness to talks on trade tariffs shown by the Trump administration. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Product Specialist & Macro Research team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2025.