Numerai & Predictoor: How AI Changed Crypto Prediction Markets - Trent McConaghy & Richard Craib

Prediction markets were one of the first use cases of smart contracts, yet their popularity only recently spiked, following Polymarket’s social media spread. However, while prediction markets are generally zero-sum games, the rise of AI models trained on large datasets led to AI-powered prediction feeds and hedge funds. Crypto offers a unique array of use cases as it allows data scientists to not only share their data sets and models with complete privacy, but also access decentralised computing and model training. While Predictoor employs Ocean’s data infrastructure to run AI-powered prediction bots on lower timeframes, Numerai developed its own AI hedge fund for stocks, that recently also expanded to crypto.Topics covered in this episode:Predictoor & Numerai overviewPrediction marketsPrediction feedsPrediction markets in TradFi and other use casesImplementation of Ocean’s tech in PredictoorPredictions vs. FuturesMarket participantsNumerai hedge fundNumerai’s trust assumptionsThe role of AIThe evolution of AI and how it might solve market inefficienciesNumerai crypto and how it differs from PredictoorPredictoor x Numerai collaborationsThe future of prediction marketsEpisode links:Trent McConaghy on TwitterRichard Craib on TwitterPredictoor on TwitterNumerai on TwitterOcean Protocol on TwitterOasis Protocol on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.

Interoperability is the holy grail for a multi-chain future or the ‘internet of blockchains’. However, while IBC (inter-blockchain communication protocol) revolutionised permissionless cross-chain transfers, it was Skip Protocol’s Go API that took advantage of Cosmos’ infrastructure (and its numerous messaging protocols), to create an end-to-end interoperability platform, allowing developers to design seamless cross-chain user experiences.We were joined by Sam Hart, head of product at Skip Protocol, to discuss the challenges of interoperability across Cosmos & Ethereum, and how Skip:Go API & Skip:Connect push the crosschain boundaries towards end user adoption.Topics covered in this episode:Sam’s backgroundThe Other InternetSkip Protocol: bringing seamless interoperability to CosmosMonetization for Skip:Connect & Skip:GoThe Skip:Connect oracle and how Cosmos chains pull dataCross-chain MEVMEV blockersEthereum vs. Cosmos ecosystem development and activityEthereum bridges vs. Cosmos IBCCross-chain interoperabilitySkip’s multi-chain expansionEpisode links:Sam Hart on TwitterSkip Protocol on TwitterThe Other InternetSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.

In this day and age, privacy and confidentiality are more important than ever. Advancements in the cryptographic research of zero knowledge proofs (ZKPs), fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) and multi-party computation (MPC) paved the way for computational integrity and confidential computing. While FHE allows for computation to be performed on encrypted data without the need for prior decryption, it is MPC that enables compliance with regulations (e.g. AML). Arcium aims to build a global super computer for parallelised confidential computing, powered by custom MXEs (multi-party computation execution environments).Topics covered in this episode:Yannik’s backgroundConfidentiality & decentralised complianceConfidential computingTEEs (trusted execution environments) & side-channel attacksZKP vs. MPC vs. FHEArcium’s global super computer architectureHow Arcium differentiates itself from other privacy protocolsUse casesCensorship risksEcosystem developmentEpisode links:Yannik Schrade on TwitterArcium on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Sebastien Couture & Felix Lutsch.

The future is multi-chain, scalable and modular. However, while Cosmos’ IBC set the standard for interoperability, Ethereum’s L2 shift revealed a huge problem of liquidity fragmentation across the many rollups fighting for market share. Polymer aims to bridge the two ecosystems and bring the best of both worlds: Ethereum’s native liquidity and Cosmos’ interoperability, through a modular framework using the OP-stack and IBC.Topics covered in this episode:Bo’s background and the evolution of PolymerScaling limits of L1s vs. L2sThe ‘endgame’ for rollup frameworksIBCInteroperability & network topology: 70’s/80’s vs. blockchainsPolymer hubMonomer frameworkPre-confirmation & finality trade-offsCross-rollup interoperabilityBuilding appchains with MonomerModularityEpisode links:Bo Du on TwitterPolymer Labs on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Sebastien Couture.

Self-custodial wallets often represent the first point of contact for crypto users that venture away from centralised exchanges. As a result, their security and user experience should be paramount. This often explained Metamask’s first mover advantage and the users’ reluctance to change. However, as infrastructure evolves, new wallets are equipped from the get-go with features that are designed for normie adoption, such as: account abstraction, gas fee abstraction, easier on- and off-ramp, etc. Zeal was envisioned as a day-to-day wallet solution, allowing users true freedom to transact, both on-chain, as well as off-chain (i.e. real world spendings).Topics covered in this episode:Hannes’ backgroundExisting wallet solutions and Zeal’s userbaseWallet UX, account abstraction and passkeysSecurity assumptions and passkey recoverySmart contract interactionsZeal’s mobile-first focusIBAN & Gnosis Pay integrationsCapturing market shareBanking the unbankedGas feesCross-chain interoperabilityDeFi & stakingMonetisationPrivacyZeal’s backendGrowth & business scaling in Web3Zealot recruitmentEpisode links:Hannes Graah on TwitterHannes Graah on LinkedInZeal on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.

As the crypto industry matures, more sophisticated market participants become involved. As a result, risk management and hedging will evolve to levels seen in TradFi. However, regardless of the preferred market activity, when interacting with a blockchain, every actor competes for the same limited blockspace. Based on demand levels, the cost for securing that blockspace can fluctuate (in the form of miner fees for Bitcoin transactions, or gas fees for PoS blockchains). Therefore, a particular niche of power users could lower these costs by reserving blockspace in advance of elevated demand levels. Alkimiya set out to build just that - a marketplace for blockspace.Topics covered in this episode:Leo’s backgroundThe vision behind AlkimiaMarket participants for blockspaceHedging costsUse cases on EthereumProposer-Builder Separation and preconfirmationsReserving blockspacePolkadot’s blockspace allocationCurrent market sentiment. ETH vs. SOLEpisode links:Leo Zhang on TwitterAlkimiya on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Brian Fabian Crain.

The saying goes that knowledge is power, and this perfectly applies to blockchains due to their innate transparency and immutability. However, raw data could seem, at first, unusable. This is where analytics companies, such as Nansen, play a major role in demystifying blockchain data by labelling it. In turn, curated data holds value as it can give an edge to traders, by tracking ‘smart money’ wallets. In the age of AI, most of the heavy lifting of data analysis is performed by LLMs, but human input is equally valuable for discerning nuances and fine tuning the process.Topics covered in this episode:Alex’s background, from AI to cryptoNansen’s valuesQuerying blockchain dataSupported chainsEnsuring data accuracyGenerating wallet labelsThe role of LLMs and AIData privacy and monetisationOn-chain transparency, privacy and ethicsRoadmap and further enhancementsEpisode links:Alex Svanevik on TwitterNansen on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.P.S.: Our friends from @nansen_ai have offered us 10 discount codes for 10% off on their professional and pioneer plans! If you are interested in unlocking Nansen's true power, DM us on Twitter (X - @epicenterbtc) and we'll hook you up with a code (FCFS).

In 2017, Vitalik Buterin defined the ‘Scalability Trilemma’ which consisted of 3 attributes that every blockchain had to balance depending on its intended use cases: decentralisation, scalability and security. While Ethereum sacrificed scalability in favour of security and decentralisation, others prioritised throughput over the other two. However, a solution was proposed, inspired from Web2 computer science - sharding. Despite the fact that Ethereum’s ossification and significant progress in zero knowledge research led to a shift in Ethereum’s roadmap away from execution sharding towards L2 rollups, there were other L1s that were designed from the get-go as sharded blockchains. One such example was Elrond, who implemented the beacon chain PoS consensus alongside a sharded execution layer. Their recent rebranding to MultiversX alludes to a multi-chain, interoperable ecosystem, in which sovereign chains can communicate in a similar manner to cross-shard transaction routing.Topics covered in this episode:Lucian’s background and founding Elrond (MultiversX)Elrond’s validator & shard architectureCross-shard composabilityVMs, smart contracts and transaction routingSelf sovereignty and modularityMultiversX visionRoadmapEpisode links:Lucian Mincu on TwitterMultiversX on TwitterxPortal on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Felix Lutsch.

Web3’s decentralisation is currently limited to smart contracts as they can be verified on-chain. However, until scalability and UX become on par with that of Web2, the only realistic way for crypto to reach mass adoption is threw off-chain dApps. This creates the premise for a security bottleneck in the form of centralised APIs used for on-chain querying. Mel Project aims to expand on-chain security and decentralisation (consensus) to off-chain apps, basically achieving off-chain composability through trustless light clients. Earendil, the backbone of their ecosystem, designed to resist ISP-level censorship, is a decentralized anonymous communication and payment network that enables autonomous applications and true P2P protocols.Topics covered in this episode:Eric’s background and founding Mel ProjectWhy Ethereum came shortIs Infura a security bottleneck?Liberating markets (and the Internet)Light clients and how Mel Project tackles themUse casesSmart contracts on Mel ProjectScaling the ‘world computer’Mel Project’s consensus: StreamletWhy Mel Project chose an UTXO modelEarendil & ISP-level censorship resistanceRoadmapThe Geph VPNMel Project’s low volatility (stable) coin$SYM: PoS tokenMisc.Episode links:Eric Tung on TwitterMel Project on TwitterGeph VPN on TwitterMoxie Marlinspike's 'My first impressions on web3' articleStreamlet BFT consensus modelSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Brian Fabian Crain.

One of the OG flag bearers for decentralisation, Gnosis initially set out to build a prediction market on Ethereum. However, unlike the vibrant ecosystem of today, the early Ethereum days were barren. As a result, Gnosis team decided to build out their own infrastructure and tooling to suit their needs. Before long, tools such as Gnosis Safe, Zodiac, etc. were quickly adopted by the entire industry. Nowadays, since the foundation has been tried and tested, Gnosis 3.0 aims to focus on improving consumer dApp UX in order to facilitate widespread adoption.Topics covered in this episode:Gnosis’ background and visionGnosis 3.0Gnosis DAOCapital allocation managementHow Gnosis Pay revolutionizes payment railsThe ‘Baguette Conundrum’: privacy & regulatory compliance for on-chain paymentsThe future of the EVM vs. modularityWould Gnosis shift to an L2 architecture?Episode links:Friederike Ernst on TwitterGnosis DAO on TwitterGnosis Chain on TwitterGnosis Pay on TwitterSafe on TwitterCoW Swap on TwitterSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Sebastien Couture.