Technicals: Week 44

Friday, November 13, 2026. WEEK 45 SUMMARY. WTI traded $111-$116 range. Week close $113.80 (+3.8% WoW). Bull flag intact. Brent traded $119-$126. Week close $123.50 (+2.8%). Spread $8-$10 sustained. EIA INVENTORY: Crude build 4.2M barrels, gasoline draw -1.1M, distillate draw -800k, refinery utilization 90.2%, SPR releases ongoing. OPEC REBOUND: Oct production 41.23M bpd (+2.04M bpd jump), Saudi 10.56M bpd rebound, Iran 1.95M bpd stable, voluntary cuts continuing. GEOPOLITICAL: Hormuz day 276, vessel transits 1-2/day, war-risk insurance 40x normal, supply premium holds, diplomatic signals mixed. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot $3.40-$3.65 range, week close $3.52, storage builds 85 Bcf/week, total inventory 3,850 Bcf, winter curve contango widening. CAPITAL POSITIONING: Bull flag consolidation intact, support $111.50, resistance $116+, overbought risks persist. Trade the data. Not the headlines. Capital preservation paramount.

Tuesday, November 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL CHART SETUP. WTI consolidating $113-$114. Bull flag formation. Support $111.50. Resistance $116-$117. Breakdown risk below $111. BRENT: $122-$125 range. Bull flag parallel WTI. Support $120, resistance $126-$128. MOVING AVERAGES (WTI): 20MA $112.80, 50MA $109.60, 200MA $106.50 (bullish alignment). MA stack support $109. INDICATORS (WTI): RSI 68 overbought releasing. MACD positive histogram. Bollinger Bands upper $116, lower $110. Elliott Wave impulse targeting $117-$119 above. Downside risk flag fail below $111 triggers stop cascade to $109.50, $98 next. BRENT MAs: 20MA $123.20, 50MA $119.80, 200MA $116.30 (bullish). BRENT INDICATORS: RSI 65 overbought. MACD positive. Bollinger upper $126, lower $119. Elliott impulse target $128+ above $126. HENRY HUB: Spot $3.45-$3.55. NYMEX Nov $3.52, Dec winter $3.75. EIA Wednesday critical. Support $3.20, resistance $3.65-$3.80. RSI 52-58 neutral. MACD mixed positive. Contango steepening. Storage builds 80 Bcf/week. Trade the flags. Respect support. Capital preservation paramount.

Monday, November 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL HOLDING. WTI near $113-$114. Brent elevated $122-$125. Six-month highs approaching. Geopolitical premium intact. Week 45 opens strong bull structure. WTI close $113.50-$114.20. Intraday range $111-$115.50. Six-month high $115.30 (previous). Support $111, $109. Resistance $115, $117. Pattern bullish impulse intact. MAs: 20MA $112.80, 50MA $109.60, 200MA $106.50 (bullish alignment maintained). RSI 68 overbought. MACD positive histogram widening (bullish conviction). Trend strong bull. BRENT: $122-$125 range. Support $120, $118. Resistance $126, $128+. MAs bullish. RSI 65 elevated. MACD positive. Spread $10-$12 normal. HENRY HUB: $3.45-$3.55. Storage builds 80 Bcf/week. Winter curve steepening, contango premium widening. Resistance $3.65-$3.80. Support $3.30. EIA inventory watch. HORMUZ: Day 270 ongoing. Vessel transits minimal. War-risk insurance elevated. Supply premium sustains. Overbought risk near resistance. Respect levels. Trade the data. Capital preservation paramount.

Wednesday, November 4, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI $96.82 (down $7 from Mon $104). Election day complete. DIPLOMACY ON TABLE: US-Iran talks intensive (Qatar mediating). Iran reopening Strait of Hormuz if US lifts oil sanctions, ends blockade, unfreezes assets, ends war including related fronts (Lebanon), related steps (Iran-Oman transit). Two-day timeline discussed. If deal happens, war premium evaporates. If talks fail, escalation risk back. OPEC+ STABLE: Subgroup confirmed unchanged Dec quotas. Saudi production unclear (reporting discrepancies). EIA CRUDE REPORT: Today 10:30 AM ET (week ending Oct 30)—expect small draw ~200k barrels. TACTICAL: $95 floor. Break below, next support $89. Above $98, resistance $100. No escalation post-election + successful talks = downside $90. Escalation = upside $105. Position risk management, respect range until diplomacy clarity. NATURAL GAS: HH $2.90 consolidating $2.80-$3.00 range. STORAGE REPORT: EIA data today—Oct 23 close 3,724 Bcf, +80 Bcf from prior week. Building continues through winter. No heating demand surprise. TACTICAL: Short bias intact. Sell $3 target $2.50. Oversold dips $2.90 offer technical bounces. SUMMARY: Crude caught diplomacy hope vs escalation risk. Gas consolidating ample storage, mild heating. Election clarity removes one variable. Diplomacy becomes sole oil driver. Watch Qatar updates, EIA inventory data. Capital preservation. Data over headlines.

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI near $96-97. Sharp selloff overnight on diplomatic hopes (US-Iran talks). Down 4-7% from Monday $104. KEY LEVELS: Support $95 (Oct low, psychological floor), $93-94 below. Resistance $99-100 (key pivot). Break above $100 reclaims bull bias. INDICATORS: RSI split—some charts oversold (RSI <30), MACD negative shorter timeframes, momentum weak. Daily moving averages still bullish above $92. Structure intact but momentum broken. SETUP: Oversold bounce risk into $100 resistance. Elections today create volatility. No directional conviction until post-vote clarity. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub consolidating $2.90-$2.93. KEY LEVELS: Resistance $3.00 (falling trendline mid-Oct, psychological). Break above confirms bullish. Support $2.80 (tested multiple), $2.70 floor. INDICATORS: RSI neutral-weak ~40-50. MACD below signal, slight negative bias. Moving averages bearish (price below SMA50/200). Range-bound setup. SETUP: Short bias. Sell $3 targeting $2.50. Storage ample, heating mild, no supply shock expected. SUMMARY: Crude oversold, election day volatile. Gas weak, range-bound. Risk management essential.

Monday, November 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI $104.17 close (Nov 1), $104.12 (Oct 30). Week consolidating near $104. October range $91.85-$105.25. Brent ~$113 (Nov 1), spread ~$9.31 (maritime risk premium narrowing from double digits). YTD: WTI +68% from Jan start, Brent +75%. STRAIT OF HORMUZ ESCALATION: 30+ attacks October (vs 14 Sept). Late Oct-Nov 1 window: Limpet mine attack tanker LOUISE 1 (unverified fire/damage, crew safe). LNG carrier AL MAYEDA struck (~40nm south Lavan Island, Oct 30, fire reported). IRGC claims 4 oil tankers hit mines/fires (some unconfirmed, overlap UKMTO reports). Commercial traffic ~10% normal. Tanker rates Gulf-to-China ~$33/barrel (vs normal $5-10). Maritime threat: SEVERE. US-IRAN TENSIONS: Midterm elections Nov 3, 2026 (tomorrow from Nov 2). Trump stated no major US attacks Iran before midterms. Post-election expectation: renewed strikes possible. Traders pricing risk premium. Additional US military assets (carrier group) positioned region. OPEC+ PRODUCTION: Seven-country subgroup (Saudi, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) met Nov 1, maintained Dec 2026 quotas unchanged from Sept levels. Saudi quota 10.478M bpd, Russia 9.949M, Iraq 4.431M, Kuwait 2.676M, Kazakhstan 1.628M, Algeria 1.007M, Oman 841k. Total 31.01M bpd. Note: Actual production below quotas (Saudi actual Sept ~8M, down from reported 8.372M, reporting discrepancies). Compliance varies. Next OPEC+ meeting Nov 29, 2026 (full ministerial). Focus: 2027 baselines, capacity reviews, remaining cuts (~2M bpd layer through end-2026). NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot Oct 27 $2.76/MMBtu (latest published). Oct range ~$2.52-$3.30. Month-to-date avg ~$3.00. 2026 YTD avg ~$3.45. Heating season mild forecast HDD ~3,150 (3% below 10-yr avg). Storage building Oct forecast ~328 Bcf. End-Oct inventory ~3,850 Bcf (2% above 5-yr avg). Production: US dry gas ~112.2 Bcf/d. LNG exports ~17.6-18 Bcf/d. POLITICAL BACKDROP: Gasoline national avg >$4/gallon. Diesel historic highs. Voter disapproval Iran war costs majority. Energy inflation key pocketbook issue. GOP midterm prospects pressured rising fuel. Dem Senate control odds rising betting markets. Trump admin: Possible post-election action or de-escalation (Qatar/Pakistan mediation). Goal ease energy pressures pre-vote. POSITIONING: OIL: WTI $104 consolidating Oct range $91.85-$105.25. Broader uptrend Jan start (+68% YTD) intact. Support ~$100 (psychological), $98 (technical), $91 (Oct low). Resistance $105 (recent high), $107-108. Hormuz escalation supporting premium. Maritime risks adding friction. OPEC+ stable (no cuts/increases). Election day Nov 3 uncertainty. Post-election escalation risk priced. Saudi actual output unclear (discrepancies down from peak). Tactical: $100 floor key psychological. Nov 3 election day volatility likely. No escalation post-election = premium erode, prices fall. Escalation = upside $105-110. Capital preservation first. Do NOT short election day. Risk management essential. GAS: HH $2.76 (Oct 27 close). Below $3 support testing. Oct range $2.52-$3.30. Broader 2026 downtrend Jan $7.72 peak YTD -60% intact. Storage ample. Heating mild HDD 3,150 (3% below normal). Production strong 112.2 Bcf/d. LNG stable 17.6-18 Bcf/d. No supply shock expected. Winter mild keeps downside. Tactical short bias (sell $3 target $2.50). Oversold dips $2.76 offer bounce $2.95-$3.00. Winter mild no conviction rallies >$3 without supply shock. SUMMARY: WTI $104.17 near consolidation. Hormuz escalation supporting premium. OPEC+ quotas stable (no changes). Election day Nov 3 critical inflection. Post-election outcome determines next leg. HH $2.76 weak. Storage ample, heating mild, production strong. Winter mild downside bias persists. Capital preservation first. Election day week critical positioning. Trade the data, not the fear.

Friday, October 29, 2026. FINLAND ENERGY OVERVIEW. Highest renewable electricity shares globally. Nordic union Sweden/Norway. Nuclear baseload. Hydro seasonal. Wind growing. LNG strategic post-Russian disruption. ELECTRICITY: Capacity ~17 GW. Generation 2025-2026: 40-45% nuclear baseload (3 reactors + Olkiluoto 3 new 2.2 GW 2023), 20-25% hydro seasonal, 20-25% wind growing, 10-15% biomass, 2-3% solar, <1% coal. Peak 14-15 GW (winter heating), average 10 GW. Carbon ~50g CO2/kWh (lowest globally). NATURAL GAS & LNG: Pre-2022 90% Russian pipeline. Post-2022 zero Russian gas mid-2023. LNG diversification: Inkoo terminal (2023, 4.5-5 mtpa regasification). Cargoes ~3-4 U.S. LNG/month (spot, high-cost). Volumes ~3-3.5 Bcm/a LNG replacing Russian (3-4x cost). Ratepayer impact +20-30% bills. GRID: NordPool Nordic wholesale (Finland/Sweden/Norway/Denmark). Wind variability (Sweden/Denmark) influences pricing. Winter congestion management. POLICY: Net-zero 2050. 80% renewable 2030 (current >50%). Coal phase-out 2030. EV ban 2035. NUCLEAR: Loviisa (4 GW, 1977/1982), Olkiluoto (2.6 GW), Olkiluoto 3 (2.2 GW, 2023 operational). Lifetimes extended to 2055. SMR development. RENEWABLES: Wind 13 GW target 2030 (current 5-6 GW onshore/offshore). Solar 2-3 GW target. Bioenergy 2-3 GW. DISTRICT HEATING: 90% buildings connected (unique Nordic). Heat sources: biomass (growing), waste heat, solar thermal, heat pumps. Gas boiler phase-out. STRATEGIC: Russian gas zero mid-2023. LNG cost burden (spot). Energy security diversification (Nordic grid, LNG, nuclear/renewables). Winter peak challenge. Summer export surplus. Data centre growth (cool climate, renewables). REGULATORY: Ministry Employment/Economy, Energiavirasto, NordPool, Fingrid TSO. Summary: 17 GW, 40-45% nuclear, 20-25% hydro, 20-25% wind, 10-15% biomass, <3% solar, <1% coal. Lowest carbon ~50g CO2/kWh. LNG 3-3.5 Bcm/a (Inkoo 4.5-5 mtpa post-Russian zero). NordPool wholesale. District heating 90%. Targets 80% renewable 2030, net-zero 2050, coal 2030, EV 2035. Wind 13 GW, solar 2-3 GW. Hydrogen/SMR strategic. Grid modernization accelerated post-crisis.

Thursday, October 29, 2026. NEW YORK ENERGY OVERVIEW. Among highest electricity demand U.S. states. Primarily natural gas, hydro, nuclear, renewables. Oil refining limited. No shale gas due to fracking ban 2014. OIL & NATURAL GAS: Oil production ~300 bbl/d conventional (legacy declining). Shale gas: Zero (Marcellus Shale exists but prohibited). Natural gas: Minimal intrastate, 100% import-dependent (Marcellus PA, Utica OH, Canada). ELECTRICITY: Capacity ~55 GW. Generation: 40-45% natural gas, 20-25% hydro (seasonal), 20% nuclear (4 reactors, Indian Point retired 2021), 5-7% wind, 2-3% solar, <1% coal. Peak 48 GW (summer AC), load factor 60-65%. INFRASTRUCTURE: Pipelines (Millennium, Tennessee, Algonquin, Columbia, NFG). No intrastate storage. Winter peaks 80% capacity. RENEWABLES: CLCPA targets 70% renewable 2030, 100% zero-emission 2035 (6-9 years). CES: 70% renewable 2030, 100% by 2035. Targets: Onshore wind 9.4 GW, offshore wind 9 GW (by 2035), solar 17 GW, battery storage 6 GW. CONSTRAINTS: Data centre demand surge (AI boom), winter peak stress (limited pipeline), NY considers electrification away from gas. GRID: Renewable intermittency (solar/wind), upstate generation/downstate demand mismatch, nuclear lifecycle. REGULATORY: PSC, NYSDEC, NYSERDA. Summary: 55 GW, 40-45% gas, 20-25% hydro, 20% nuclear, 5-7% wind, 2-3% solar, <1% coal. Minimal oil (300 bbl/d), zero shale. Import-dependent gas. CLCPA 70% renewable 2030, 100% zero-emission 2035 (6-9 years). Onshore 9.4 GW, offshore 9 GW, solar 17 GW, battery 6 GW targets. Data centre growth, winter constraints, grid modernization priority.

Wednesday, October 28, 2026. CRUDE OIL CONSOLIDATION. WTI holding near $100. Brent elevated $108-$110. EIA inventory report released. Crude build ~1.2M barrels met expectations. Gasoline draw -200k barrels. Distillate build +600k. Refinery utilization 91% steady. SPR releases continuing. WTI close $99.50-$100.30. Intraday range $98-$102. Triangle compression intact. MAs bullish maintained. Support $98, $96. Resistance $102.50, $104. Brent $108-$110. Support $106.50, resistance $112. Spread $8-$10 normal WTI discount. Henry Hub $3.08-$3.15. Storage builds 95 Bcf/week. Contango steepening, winter premium widening. Support $3.00 flat, resistance $3.25. Hormuz day 232, diplomatic signals mixed, vessel transits minimal 1-2/day, war-risk insurance elevated, supply uncertainty persists. Consolidation intact, EIA supportive neutral bias. Triangle breakdown critical watch. Capital preservation paramount.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Technicals: Week 43, Tuesday Update. WTI consolidating $99.80-$100.20. Triangle compression zone $99.50-$102.50. Support $98.50, $96.50. Resistance $102.50, $104, $106. MAs bullish stack (20/50/200). RSI 55-70 neutral-overbought. MACD positive crossover. Elliott Wave impulse targeting $106-$109 above. Downside risk below $99.50 triggers stop cascade to $96.50. Brent $109.50-$110.50. Support $107-$108, resistance $112-$114. Similar bullish setup. RSI 65-70 overbought. Henry Hub $3.15-$3.18. Support $3.00, resistance $3.20-$3.30. Contango steepening. Storage 90 Bcf/week. RSI 45-55 neutral. EIA Wednesday critical catalyst. Trade compression.