DHUnplugged #725: Minsky Moments

Kissing Ass is good for the wallet Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision Time's Person of the Year! Whistleblower found dead PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Kissing Ass is good for the wallet - Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision - Person of the Year! - Whistleblower found dead - Markets - Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings) - Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100 - Earnings - A few interesting data points - Social Security benefits increase - Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation - Not since... 2018 or 1978? Reminder -  the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well DJIA - Records? - The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018. - If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline. - But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up. - Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself. Another Sinkhole Warning - SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD. - SP500 up slightly MTD - NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5% - Small-caps down 3% BUT - Wait.... - A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. - On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023. - This is after an inline CPI number. - Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected --- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames ) AND Consumers are Spending - November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4% But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over ISM Composite CHIPS - Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell. The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth. - Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago. More Chips - US planning on restricting AI  Chips around the world - Planning on closing China's backdoor access -Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing - NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH Nuclear - getting some traction - SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors - Small modular reactors,

Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps HUGE Baseball Deal Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops - Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps - Baseball Deal - Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? Markets - Employment Report - This week's CPI and PPI Data - Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away - - Trump Limericks (AI) ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Regarding AMD - BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors: 1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and 2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales.  Shares are down 3%. Oracle Earnings - Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night. - The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters. - Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations. - The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected. - Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX. Google Chip - Releases the Willow quantum computing chip - Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete. - However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away. MLB Deal - The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history. - The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money. - The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source. - In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million - Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average - In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight). China - Back in the Spotlight - Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops - China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November... - Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.

Very Business friendly cabinet Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Very Business friendly cabinet - Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps - Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend - Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates Markets - November - the best month of the year! - New highs and predictions for a 5% December - USD is on the rise - bond yields ease. - Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin - Pillar of the exchange - He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK Marshall Law - South Korean President Yoon declares martial law: - Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country - Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts - Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order - Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains Consumers on a Rampage - Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year. - Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations - Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129 - Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year - But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West Retail - Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire - People are buying - alot of stuff - Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations. - Gap issued good guidance as well - RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc) On the Other hand.... - Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales. - The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion. - It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop. Year Top Date Scorecard S&P Sector Scorecard AI - Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives. - The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model. - Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner," - Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board. AI - Immigration - A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States. - At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona,

Where are all the smokers these days? DOGE - making promises. We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all) Warm-Up - Where are all the smokers these days? - DOGE - making promises - High level indictment - We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise Markets -#endthefed making the rounds - Treasury Secretary? - Target earnings surprise - Black Friday - will that boost retail? - New Phrase - Mullet Market Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table? ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana Mullet Market - No, the fish... - Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back Netflix Again - Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan - 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan - Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee - Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans Smokers - Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028. - Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes. - Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data. At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization. Topic of Discussion - #endthefed - Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed? - Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy. - Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed -- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency - Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade - Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...) - Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements. --- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter) Higher rates - Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range - DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases. - Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said - If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture. Yeah Right.... - Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39,

Wild ride for markets - election movers and groovers. Fed dousing the fire a bit. Inflation is still a thing. Nuke talk again.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come - CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December - More hacks that no one cares about - Another big bankruptcy - Nuke talks again Markets - Up and down - shine off that penny? - Every pick / comment brings on new move - Fed pours some cold water on markets - Inflation - still a thing - Something happening - only happened a few times in history ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58) - 60 million people "tried" to watch - Glitches - system overload - Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision. - Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge? - Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M Follow Up - Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26) - As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year - Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD - Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done - Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election. Once Hot -Now Not - Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down - Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off - Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable) - Could be kicked out of NASDAQ - Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. --- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%) Markets - Not Often Seen - The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871 - The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40. - On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator - Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years. --- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent. More Cooling - Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election. - Day after it was up like 5%+++ - Last week, down 4% Hack'd - Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets - Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies. - Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies,

Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes. Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago. Thank you Ryan for putting this together. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together! This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal. Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals. April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic. May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have. May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns. May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice. May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting. May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise. May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed. August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame? September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze. October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons.   We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap". April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is. May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop. June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work? August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3. August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting". September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam. Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself. June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned. September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense. September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use. December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Can we get this election over with already? Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario. Earnings season rolling along - good and bad news for stocks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow) - Drones - will they deliver? - October ends on a down note Markets - Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results - Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions - Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players - What does Berkshire know? - Big DJIA Announcement AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title... Employment Situation - ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. - Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) - Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000) -- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity. - Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change US GDP - Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2. - Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth. - The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target. Palantir Earnings -Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures. - PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629. - U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters. - The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln AMD Earnings - Just not good enough - AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28: - Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected - Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected - AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations. - Stock down Microsoft Earnings - Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated. - Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates. - Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations. Amazon Earnings

Yields important again - rising and worrisome. Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment. End of month - October is about to be in the books. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time. Warm-Up - Yields important again - all of a sudden - Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment - End of month - October is about to be in the books Markets - Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us - Gold near highs as China and India buying - Election Direction - putting money where mouth is... - Consumers are happier - UMICH - NAZ 100 - ATH? Yields - On the Move   Yields On The Move Auto Divergence - GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter. -- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50. - This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations. -  Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action - Big differential with stock performance over past year GM/FORD YTD GM/Ford Longer New Threshold for Capital Gains - Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less. - Here is an idea  - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate --- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold. Consumer Sentiment - October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9 - Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news. ---  Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information. Hedge fund big boys - Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones - The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher. - Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it - "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said." - Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through. Minsky Moment Defined - A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises. - A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis.  Housing Market

There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks. Yields on the rise - estimate that they could be moving up to what level? Big tech earnings on tap - how will markets react? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm-Up - Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying - Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal - Musk giving away $ - E-Coli Alert Markets - Yields cranking higher - steepening means.... - A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week) - More Tax abatements - Markets look a little tired.... Treasury Rates - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. - This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago. - Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers Yield Curve This too... - The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday. - The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion. - Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023. - Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service) - The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034. The Big Reveal - The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett. - Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock - Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt) - Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares? More... Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks - China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools. - The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders. - 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks Revealed - Just a quick look.... - The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities. - The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks. - The Bank of Finland does invest in equities - Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks. - Bank of Finland buys stocks - Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion) - - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world. NO TAXES! - Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes - Why not just have no taxes for everyone? --- UPDATE:  Former President Donald Trump's tax r...

Bulls remain in charge Data not important - down the road all will be fine Seasonality - Race to the End CPI and PPI - conflicting PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com Warm-Up - Bulls remain in charge - Data not important - down the road all will be fine - Seasonality - Race to the End - Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year. - Musk pulls a fast one Markets - CPI and PPI - conflicting - Bank earnings - so far so good - Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead - US Chips and Exports - roughed up market Economics This Week - Import and Export Prices - Retail Sales - Philly Fed - Industrial Production - Housing Starts - Building Permits Of Interest: NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. - So inflation is a bit more sticky than Recession - No Says Goldman - Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15% Seasonality - The Race until the end - Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost... - End of year from here favors the bulls - Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets Markets Worried? - Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis - NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East - Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them - The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security - ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector Fed Powers - Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it ELON - Pulling a fast one - Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg - Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere) - Isn't that fraud? Example of promises hitting the wires - Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters - Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America - Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon) Consumer Confidence - Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident - Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month JPM Earnings - JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall. - Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase. - Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates.