David Axelrod on the 2026 Midterms: How Big a Wave?

We are less than seven weeks away from Election Day, and early voting already has begun in some states. To discuss where things stand and where American politics might go after the midterms, we are joined again by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod shares his perspective on how the election might play out  when Trump “is in a deep hole and keeps on digging.” He explains how the fundamentals point toward a historically bad year for Republicans—with a war and tariffs, unmistakably the president's own doing, felt acutely by voters through rising energy costs. Kristol and Axelrod also discuss how the Democratic Party is dealing with the rise of economic populism, and where both parties might go in terms of ideology and character of candidates as we look toward the presidential race in 2028.

"We're 60 days away from a completely different political environment. And I think people are underestimating how different it's going to be, and how volatile it's going to be without really any moorings for either party." So argues Doug Sosnik, former political director for Bill Clinton, one of the shrewdest analysts of American politics, and the author of an indispensable new Substack. In this detailed and wide-ranging Conversation on the midterms, 2028, and the instability of American politics, Sosnik explains what polls and historical precedents can and cannot capture about our volatile electorate. Sosnik and Kristol discuss the the strength of populist forces, the challenges facing both parties in the lead up to 2028, and why 2029 may be the beginning of a new era in American political history.

Where do things stand with the military in Trump’s Second Term? What are the consequences of a shortage of munitions in the conduct of the Iran War? What should we make of the firings of senior military leaders? In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former Under Secretary of Defense and former ambassador to Turkey and Finland, shares his perspective on what he describes as increasing dysfunction in the military and its civilian leadership. Edelman points to the consequences of Trump’s departure from the military decision-making processes typical of past administrations. Edelman also reflects on the politicization of promotion and other military procedures. As he puts it: “It takes a lot of time and effort to build the kind of military that we have had, that we’ve grown used to having since the 1980s-1990s…. It doesn’t take long to tear it down.” 

"Am I worried? A lot. Why? Because they’re not done yet. And it’s not just the president, but the efforts of those around him and on the outside supporting him who have a very huge and fundamental and reshaping ideology, driving an effort to … increase the president’s power even further. And this dramatically weakens the power of Congress." So argues the distinguished political scientist and leading authority on the workings of American government, Don Kettl. According to Kettl, Trump in his second term has tried to make "loyalty to the president" the ultimate litmus test for government service. He argues that, by ignoring standards of merit and competence, Trump mostly has had the effect of gutting government rather than reforming it—with dangerous consequences for the country. 

A year and a half into the second Trump administration, is the Supreme Court meeting the moment? What are the broader implications of recent Court decisions and the conduct of lower courts? What might the next years look like? To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Ryan Goodman, a law professor at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of the online publication Just Security. In a bracing Conversation, Goodman argues that the Supreme Court has treated rampant non-compliance with law by the Executive Branch in a “business-as-usual” fashion, even as the administration is "engaging in actions toward the Court that very much threaten the checks and balances.” Goodman also shares his perspective on how lower courts, the media, and citizens are responding—and might better respond—to threats to the rule of law.  

What makes Niccolò Machiavelli the founder of modern politics? How did liberal thinkers like Locke, Montesquieu, and the American founders modify Machiavelli’s inventions? How did later thinkers like Kant and Hegel attempt to save reason? How stands rational control today? How stands the case for liberalism? Is there a path forward for a revived liberalism? Drawing on his recent book The Rise and Fall of Rational Control—based on lectures given for over fifty years at Harvard—Mansfield discusses liberalism, reason in politics, and forms of rational and irrational control. This conversation is altogether a tour-de-force introduction to the history of modern political philosophy.

“This election looks like a classic collision between the irresistible force and the immovable object. The irresistible force is the elevated share of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, which has increased since last December and is now running consistently around 60%.... The immovable object is that this election, in both the House and the Senate, is going to be fought out primarily on Republican-leaning terrain.” What’s going to happen in the House? What’s going to happen in the Senate? What should we be watching for in the months ahead? Ron Brownstein, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and senior CNN political analyst, and a leading student of American elections, presents a tour-de-force look at the polls, data, and what indicators will matter most as we head toward November. 

“China is aiming to enhance its power with respect to the United States in particular, and eventually to emerge as the dominant player in the international system, and it’s working towards that goal…. It is not clear to me at this point what our strategy is, or even if we have one.” So argues Princeton Professor Aaron Friedberg in a new Conversation assessing the state of US-China relations in the wake of President Trump’s China summit and the ongoing Iran War. While the Iran War does not represent a decisive shift in US-China relations, Friedberg explains that it is viewed from Beijing as a “net positive” because it has weakened US relations with its traditional allies. In a bracing synopsis, Friedberg presents China as working diligently to overtake the US as the dominant power on the world stage, while the Second Trump administration has failed to counter with a coherent strategy. 

“The Ukrainians believe Putin’s now being faced with more dilemmas than they are.” So argues the distinguished historian and a leading analyst of the Ukraine War, Phillips O’Brien. Author of the indispensable Phillips’s Newsletter on Substack, O’Brien shares his perspective on where things stand in Ukraine and Russia, and assesses the broader implications for Europe and beyond. Kristol and O’Brien also consider in depth the massive technological transformations in warfare from Ukraine to Iran, what the consequences may be for the geopolitical order, and how these innovations may affect the competition between the United States and China.   

“This branding binge [Trump] has been on: with everything he’s trying to have put his name on. To build the White House ballroom, the arch in front of Arlington Cemetery. And the war and military adventurism. It’s a way of trying to cement his state permanently as a dominant figure in history, because he knows he’s going to die.” So argues veteran political reporter A.B. Stoddard in a bracing analysis of President Trump’s character and conduct during his second term. Reflecting on the last ten years, Stoddard argues that Trump’s aspirations to cement his role as a dominant figure in history have increased dramatically—and the acceleration of his actions must be taken seriously. For Stoddard, above all, this requires us to confront questions about the 2028 elections, including the possibility that Trump might refuse to leave office or try to keep the presidency in the family. Stoddard warns against the assumption that normalcy will return after 2028: “People just want to hope that we’re going to keep with term-limited presidents.... I don’t think we know what’s coming.”