Welfare vote: how many will rebel?

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it.Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back? Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM.In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50. Also on the podcast, Wes Streeting is due to announce his – much-delayed – ten-year plan for the NHS. We are expecting a number of big shifts in Thursday’s announcement, including: moving from analogue to digital, swapping treatment for prevention, and hospital for community. Does Wes have the perspiration for the ailing NHS?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

As Labour rebels appear to have forced concessions from Keir Starmer over welfare this week, former Conservative MP Steve Baker joins James Heale to reflect on his own time as a rebel, and to provide some advice to Labour MPs. Steve, an MP for 14 years and a minister under Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, tells James about the different rebellions he was a part of (from Brexit to Covid), explains how to organise a successful one and reveals how he has lost close friends when he has made the decision to compromise.He also blames Labour’s problems on their ‘bombs not benefits’ approach, explains why the current welfare rebellion demonstrates that ‘the facts of life are Conservative’ and argues that it has been a mistake for the Conservatives not the support Labour’s original approach to reducing the winter fuel allowance.Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

It is rare to see the President so visibly frustrated (see The Apprentice, circa 2004), but after Iran and Israel seemingly ignored his ceasefire announcement – and his plea on Truth Social, ‘PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!’ – Donald Trump has come down hard on both sides. In a clip taken this afternoon he exclaimed: ‘These are countries who have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don't know what the f*** they're doing.’ Succinctly put by the President.The exchange of fire could be the expected tit-for-tat seen after the announcement of ceasefires in other global conflicts, but it has dampened the mood at Nato, which world leaders were approaching with cautious optimism, believing the road to de-escalation was clearing. What happens next?Also on the podcast, Keir Starmer is facing a huge rebellion less than a year after coming into power. Overnight, scores of Starmer’s MPs have signed a reasoned amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. This would effectively kill the bill at its second reading in the Commons on Tuesday. Can he de-escalate the precarious domestic situation?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Michael Stephens.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

It’s a historic day in Westminster, where MPs will vote on the assisted dying bill – the outcome of which could have huge repercussions for healthcare, politics and the courts. It’s such a significant day, in fact, that we’ll be recording another podcast just after the result is announced at around 2.30 p.m.Kim Leadbeater’s camp remains confident that the bill will pass, although many anticipate a much closer vote than at the second reading. This is in no small part due to high-profile members of the party being opposed to the legislation, and Keir Starmer remaining characteristically evasive on the issue. The backdrop, of course, is the resignation of a government whip, Vicky Foxcroft – though over a separate issue: Liz Kendall's plan to cut personal independence payments. Could this be part of a coordinated rebellion? And how will the assisted dying bill – brought by a Labour MP and tacitly backed by a Labour PM– define Labour’s first year?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Westminster waits with bated breath to discover whether Donald Trump will ally with Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites. The President called for ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’ from Tehran overnight. The day to day of domestic politics appears diminished by comparison with the ever-looming threat of an escalated conflict…But the show must go on: today’s PMQs saw Chris Philp (why not Robert Jenrick?) and Angela Rayner deputising for their absent leaders; Liz Kendall introduced legislation to enact cuts to personal independence payments for disabled people; the Commons voted to decriminalise abortion at any point until birth; and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is up to its old tricks, announcing that inflation has fallen when the reality is much more complicated. Can we trust the forecasters? And did anyone ask for this amendment on abortion? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Kate Andrews.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Yesterday Yvette Cooper announced a national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal after the Casey Review found that a disproportionate number of Asian men were responsible and that governments and authorities had failed to step in over fears of racism. Anxious to press Labour on their U-turn – memorably, Starmer accused the Tories of ‘jumping on the far-right bandwagon’ – Kemi Badenoch held a press conference, joined by victims of the gangs. ‘I’m not doing politics now, when I’m in the Houses of Parliament, when I’m in the Commons, I will do politics’, she said. But can you really take the politics out of the grooming gangs scandal?Elsewhere, Donald Trump has fled the G7. Although this isn’t the first time he has cut a G7 visit short, it does mean he snubbed meetings with Zelensky and the Mexican president. Have Labour got what they wanted out of the conference? And what should we read into Trump’s early exit?Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Following Keir Starmer's decision to call for a national inquiry into grooming gangs, the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke in the Commons today about the 'collective failure' to address questions about groomings gangs' ethnicity in the Casey report. Elsewhere this week, Welfare reform legislation is being tabled, with a vote expected before the end of the month. Sir Keir Starmer has signalled his willingness to confront dissent within his own ranks. Meanwhile, the assisted dying debate is once again gaining momentum in Westminster, with MPs preparing for a free vote on one of the most ethically charged issues in British politics. Natasha Feroze, is joined by James Heale and Isabel Hardman.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's politics shows.The conflict in the Middle-East has entered a dangerous new phase, with Israel and Iran engaging in open warfare. We hear from Chancellor Reeves about potential UK military involvement, as the Israeli ambassador to the UK says the nuclear threat from Iran was 'imminent'. Starmer has also announced a statutory national inquiry into grooming gangs, but the Conservatives say the government is simply caving in to public pressure.Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons is joined by the outgoing boss of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson and the CEO of the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice to understand why Britain’s economy is in such a bad place. Given it feels like we are often in a doom loop of discussion about tax rises, does this point to a structural problem with the British economy? And why are the public’s expectations so out of line with the state’s capabilities?Michael, Paul and Ruth talk about whether it’s fair for Labour to claim they’ve been ending austerity, the extent to which the effects of the covid-19 pandemic are still being felt and if tax rises are inevitable. Plus – if Ruth and Paul had the opportunity to be an economic Treasury dictator, what one policy would they enact to make a big change?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.