How will the parties judge success at the local elections?

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK).  The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Despite this being the week that Kemi Badenoch finally showed some steel in PMQs, it’s Robert Jenrick who has been stealing the headlines. That’s for lots of reasons – mainly his comments about a potential Tory Reform pact, which he clarified on Good Morning Britain this morning, saying: ‘Kemi Badenoch and I are on exactly the same page. Kemi has been very clear there won’t be a pact with Reform, and I’ve said time and again that I want to put Reform out of business. I want to send Nigel Farage back to retirement.’ This follows leaked footage which surfaced this week from a student event in late March, where he appeared to suggest that he would back a pact to join forces with Farage. Elsewhere, he had a big win when Yvette Cooper announced that the government will publish migrant crime league tables – a policy he has pushed for. Is he the prince across the water? Or do we need to give Kemi a break? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Henry Hill, deputy editor at Conservative Home. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been in Washington D.C. this week at the IMF’s spring meetings, and will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tomorrow. Cue the ususal talk of compromising on chlorinated chicken. Not so, reports the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons, who explains that Reeves may offer a reduction in long-standing tariffs already imposed on American cars. But, it’s been a bad week of economic news for the Chancellor as the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth forecast. We’re also one week away from the local elections – Starmer’s first big test since last year’s general election. The economy isn’t usually the number one issue at local elections but, as More in Common’s Luke Tryl explains, the cost of living crisis is still very much alive in voters’ minds. And, while Reform look set to have a good night, the economy is not their strongest policy area. What should we look out for on the night? Michael and Luke join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.  

Happy St George’s Day! To celebrate, we thought we would discuss who is the most patriotic political leader — and why some struggle to communicate their love of country. Keir Starmer declared in an interview with the Mirror this morning that Labour is ‘the patriotic party’. This follows a more concerted effort from those within the party to become more comfortable with the flag. But is Keir Starmer actually a patriot? How will the ‘battle of the Union Jack’ play out at the local elections? And does Reform have a point to prove when it comes to patriotism? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Claire Ainsley, former executive director of policy for the Labour party, now at the Progressive Policy Institute. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Parliament is back after the Easter holiday and the Supreme Court ruling over 'what is a woman' continues to dominate talk in Westminster. The Prime Minister has changed his tune on trans, declaring he does not think that trans women are women. This has caused some disquiet in the party, with a number of senior MPs breaking rank over the weekend. Was Starmer right to row in behind the ruling? Also on the podcast, as we edge closer to the local elections, they look increasingly important for the two main parties. Pollsters are forecasting a good result for smaller insurgent parties such as Reform and the Greens, with big losses for Labour and the Conservatives. It is not an overstatement to suggest that these could be the most important local elections in recent history. What will these elections mean for the two-party system? Natasha Feroze speaks to James Heale and Paul Goodman. Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

The Liberal Democrats’ foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller, elected as the new MP for Bicester and Woodstock last year, joins James Heale to talk about the ambitions of the party that became the largest third party in Parliament in 100 years at the 2024 general election. They want to overtake the Conservatives to be the second party in local government – could they one day overtake the Tories to become the official opposition?  A former civil servant, Oxford University policy manager and councillor, Calum joins Coffee House Shots to talk about why he got into politics, how Brexit radicalised his desire for good governance and why, for all the fun, there is a serious point behind Ed Davey’s stunts.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Katy Balls joins Coffee House Shots for the last time as the Spectator’s political editor. Having joined the magazine ten years ago – or six prime ministers in Downing St years – what are her reflections on British politics? Katy’s lobby lunch partner from the Financial Times Stephen Bush joins Katy and Patrick Gibbons to try and make sense of a turbulent political decade, work out where the greatest risk is to the current Labour government, and attempt to make some predictions for the next ten years.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons. 

Former Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth and Patrick Maguire from The Times join Katy Balls for her penultimate Coffee House Shots podcast as The Spectator's political editor. Since losing his seat at last year's general election, Ashworth has been CEO of Labour Together – but not for much longer as he exclusively reveals on the podcast. Less than two weeks to go from the local elections, and only a few months away from marking one year in power, what is morale like in the Labour Party? While Patrick reflects on who might, or might not, be feeling happy, Ashworth provides more reasons for Labour supporters to feel bullish – particularly when thinking about the threat from Reform. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Michael Gove and Katy Balls join James Heale to discuss their interview with the Health Secretary Wes Streeting included in this week’s special Easter edition of The Spectator. Michael identifies three key reasons why Streeting’s fate is key to the success of the government: immigration, the cost-of-living crisis and faith in the NHS. Seen as the ‘golden child’ of Number 10, Streeting has as many supporters in the Labour party as he has detractors – but his Blairite-coded image could help him take the fight to Reform.  Also on the podcast, Michael, Katy and James discuss Nigel Farage’s progress in the local election campaign. Plus, as this is Katy’s last podcast with Michael and James keep listening to the end for an ‘easter egg’ from Michael – as well as why black cabs make the best podcast studios. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

With just over two weeks to go until the May elections, the latest national polling suggests an almost three-way split between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives. But will this translate to the locals? And, given these particular seats were last contested in 2021 amidst the 'Boris wave', how will the parties judge success?  The Spectator's deputy political editor James Heale and More in Common's Luke Tryl join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Will the story of the night be Tory losses and Reform  gains? Or will it be about the government's performance against opposition parties? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.