Ep. 147: Out of Sync

In his role as middle-school cross country coach, the Inflation Guy is fond of reminding runners that they should "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." The same, it seems, is true of inflation! From the lens of median inflation, it has leveled out around 3.6% and there are no real signs and no real math that bring it lots lower any time soon. But more interesting perhaps is how the Fed reaction function has changed. Listen to the Inflation Guy explain why the CPI report should still be important to investors even though it may no longer be very important to policymakers. NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2025/ ) Blog about the Fed’s abandonment of the important part of inflation targeting: “The Fate of FAIT was Fated” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/02/the-fate-of-fait-was-fated/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

For the first time in a while, core CPI exceeded expectations. For the first time in a while, core services and core goods both accelerated on a year-over-year basis. But what is not at all new is that median inflation is settling in the high-3% range, roughly 3.65% y/y with today's report. Get used to it! And get used to the Federal Reserve easing anyway...   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/08/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

How important is 30% of the CPI? How much should we care about the summary dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Is this a sign that the end of government credibility (okay, stop laughing) is nigh? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions and also muses about the out-of-sync pendulums that are currently swinging in our economy and the effect of these on the overall outcomes.  NOTES Video of spontaneous synchronization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportations.    NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to simple mathematics. This is a brief but important episode to set expectations for the coming few months.   NOTES Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.  Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation. NOTES Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/monetarium/ “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” blog post: https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen, only that it hasn't yet. But that doesn't mean there aren't really exciting things happening in the CPI. To hear about the backdrop, and what he's seeing in the numbers, tune in to this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered. NOTES “Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504 Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important disclaimer below. NOTES USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/ Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “A CPI-Futures Market” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe Milton Friedman, “Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554 William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551 Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/ Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/ Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/ Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/ Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/ Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/ Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/