Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.  Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation. NOTES Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/monetarium/ “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” blog post: https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen, only that it hasn't yet. But that doesn't mean there aren't really exciting things happening in the CPI. To hear about the backdrop, and what he's seeing in the numbers, tune in to this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ ) Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered. NOTES “Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504 Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important disclaimer below. NOTES USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/ Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “A CPI-Futures Market” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe Milton Friedman, “Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554 William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551 Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/ Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/ Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/ Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/ Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/ Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/ Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/  

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise.   NOTES Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/  

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen. Listen to this (unscripted!) episode to hear what he means by this. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/  To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem!   NOTES Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is.   NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high? More next week... NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/