Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon

Beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the president’s four years in office.  President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the transformative potential of emerging tech to solve global problems without exacerbating regional economic inequality. When it comes to foreign policy, as George Will quipped, the American public wants as little of it as possible, but that hasn’t been the case over the last four years.  What are the key principles and assumptions that have underscored its approach to foreign policy? And what kind of world does it leave for its successors? U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has served in the Biden administration from the beginning, first at the White House and more recently at the State Department. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell to discuss these and other issues.

With no shortage of conflicts in today’s world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNN’S Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the world’s hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent conflicts and their impact on civilians. Most recently, Clarissa and her crew were detained by an armed militia in Darfur.   What does it take to cover conflict? How does reporting on one conflict differ from another? And how do journalists witnessing the horrors of violent conflict keep their own emotions and feelings out of the story?   Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Clarissa Ward to discuss the challenges and travails of reporting from some of the world’s most dangerous conflict areas. 

Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory carries implications for America’s governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy.What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House? And what do they mean for a Democratic party now seemingly in the political wilderness?  Join Aaron David Miller as sits down with SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein, two of the nation’s most thoughtful political analysts, to discuss these and other issues.

Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one another’s territory, posing a dangerous risk tolerance.  What are the chances for further Iranian-Israeli escalation? Does Israel have a strategy to convert its recent military successes into sustainable political achievements with Palestinians or in Lebanon? And what does the future hold for the U.S.-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with former Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues in the next edition of Carnegie Connects. 

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for strengthening state sovereignty? How will Iran respond to the weakening of its billion-dollar proxy? And are there realistic opportunities for the international community, especially the United States, to pursue diplomatic options that could produce greater stability in Lebanon and along the Israel-Lebanon border?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield to address these and other questions on Carnegie Connects. 

During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive.  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program, and Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how Iran perceives the current landscape and may act as the crisis unfolds. 

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war. Are there any developments on the battlefield that suggest changes in either side’s tactics and strategies in the months ahead? Have Europe and the United States developed funding and political strategies to prepare for the long war? What are the right mix of policy tools and overall strategy to help prosecute a long war in Ukraine and an open-ended  confrontation with Moscow?   Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues. 

As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights.  In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.    How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in responding? What are the prospects for defusing not only the current crisis but the complex of issues that have shaped the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? And what role can the U.S. and other international actors and regional parties play in avoiding an all-out war? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with His Excellency Abdallah BouHabib, the foreign minister of Lebanon, to discuss these and other issues.

In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a  “key event for possible violence.” How real is that threat and how would it likely manifest itself? What are the factors driving political violence in America today? And what can be done to mitigate the threat? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with down with former acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord and Eric K. Ward, senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, to unpack these and other issues. 

The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have all threatened retaliation.What is the likely impact of recent events on the Gaza ceasefire talks? Is the region heading toward a major war? And is there chance for de-escalation diplomacy?Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Harel, Haaretz’s military correspondent and one of Israel’s leading defense analysts, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.