Analysis: Will Trump’s Houthi Deal Stick?

On Tuesday, May 6, President Trump declared that the United States would immediately halt its bombing of Houthi targets, bringing an end to months of intensified U.S. strikes across Yemen. The president linked the policy reversal to what he described as the Iran-backed Houthis’ capitulation to U.S. demands, stating that the group had agreed to cease its assaults on U.S. and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The president’s decision comes as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to advance this weekend and follows Israeli air raids on Sanaa’s airport earlier this week—retaliation for a Houthi missile attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the core drivers behind this policy shift and the implications it might bear on key regional files, such as the prospect for a renegotiated U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East Geoeconomics Lead at Bloomberg. Previously, Dr. Esfandiary served as a senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group and was a fellow at The Century Foundation. Her research focuses on security in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s foreign relations. Together, they discuss why the United States and Iran are negotiating again, how Tehran’s position has changed since 2015, and the different strategies both countries are likely to pursue at the negotiating table. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to discuss how regional and international actors are responding to the ongoing nuclear talks. Transcript: "⁠Dina Esfandiary: Will Iran Make a Deal with Trump?⁠," CSIS, May 1, 2025. Dr. Esfandiary's latest work: available via Bloomberg Terminal.

The United States is currently engaged in several high-stakes negotiations across the Middle East and around the world. President Trump has departed from traditional diplomatic norms, opting instead for unconventional negotiating strategies to address the crisis in Gaza, the war in Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear program, Venezuela, and trade. His approach has emphasized compressed timelines and the appointment of negotiators from outside the federal government’s usual ranks. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the promise and hazards posed by this shift in diplomatic strategy, especially in connection with the Middle East.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Craig Larkin, director of the Center for the Study of Divided Societies at King’s College London. Dr. Larkin is also a research lead on Memory and Conflict for XCEPT, a research consortium studying cross-border conflict. There, he focuses on the relationship between communal memory and violence. Together, Jon and Dr. Larkin unpack different approaches taken to reconstruction and reconciliation after violence in the Middle East. Then, in his farewell Babel appearance, Martin Pimentel takes Jon's spot by continuing the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to discuss pitfalls the international community should avoid when supporting post-conflict recovery. Transcript: "Craig Larkin: The Politics of Memory, From Mosul to Beirut to Gaza," CSIS, April 17, 2025. Dr. Larkin's latest work: "Lebanon’s October Revolution (al-thawra 17 tishrīn) and the Civil War: Memory, Protests and Mobilisation," Brill, December 3, 2024.

While seated beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7, President Trump announced that the United States will imminently initiate talks with Iran over its nuclear program. The announcement comes amid a rise in U.S. military activity in the Persian Gulf and a string of threats directed at Iran by President Trump, citing Tehran's nuclear program and support for regional armed groups. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about why these talks are happening now—and what the Trump administration must do to ensure their success.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst and Haaretz columnist. Scheindlin also serves as a fellow at Century International and has advised on eight national Israeli election campaigns over a twenty-year period. Together, they discuss the sources of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staying power, as well as his ongoing efforts to remodel key state institutions. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to evaluate how the changes underway in Israel might affect bilateral relations with the United States. Transcript: "Dahlia Scheindlin: Israel’s Political Turmoil," CSIS, April 3, 2025. Scheindlin's latest article: "The Escape Artist: How Netanyahu Lies and Why People Still Believe Him," Haaretz, April 1, 2025.

On March 15, the United States launched a wave of attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Trump administration had pledged to step up efforts initiated by President Biden to combat Houthi assaults on commercial shipping and U.S. regional assets. As reports swirl of new U.S. strikes, the U.S. government has also been clearer in blaming Iran for Houthi actions, and it has promised to hold Tehran accountable. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the current state of play and the dilemmas confronting U.S. policymakers in dealing with the Houthis.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Nicolas Pelham, the Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Nicolas has worked in the Middle East and North Africa for more than 30 years and has reported from every state in the region. Together, they discuss his latest article, “The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria,” an in-depth profile of the Syrian leader based in part on a mid-February interview. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Natasha Hall to discuss al-Sharaa's opportunities and challenges, and what they mean for Syria’s future. Transcript: "Nicolas Pelham: Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syria’s Future," CSIS, March 20, 2025. Nicolas' article: "The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria," The Economist, March 5, 2025.

On March 4, Jon Alterman spoke with Renad Mansour, senior research fellow and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, and Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, about the resilience of Iranian networks in the Middle East. Their discussion builds upon a recent Chatham House report Renad co-wrote on the topic. The following episode is a slightly condensed version of their conversation. You can find a link to the video of the complete discussion below. Transcript: "Renad Mansour and Sanam Vakil: Iranian Networks in the Middle East," CSIS, March 13, 2025. Video of the discussion: "Iranian Networks in the Middle East," CSIS, March 6, 2025. Renad's report: "The Shape-Shifting ‘Axis of Resistance’," Chatham House, March 6, 2025. Sanam and Jon's article: "The Indomitable IRGC," Foreign Affairs, August 15, 2024.

On Tuesday night, President Trump delivered the first broadcast address of his second term to Congress. Though his remarks on the Middle East were sparing and largely expected, U.S. policy in the region has largely been the opposite. Trump’s pronouncements on Gaza have sent especially powerful shockwaves throughout the Middle East, and hints of a new approach to Iran have also elicited attention. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the state of U.S. Middle East policy and its possible future trajectories.