Special - How the War on Iran Is Breaking the Gulf w/ Annelle Sheline

Subscribe now to get all of our special episodes and skip the ads. Danny and Derek welcome back to the show Annelle Sheline to discuss the impact of the US–Israel war on Iran on the Gulf states. They talk about how the conflict developed and why Gulf governments anticipated Iranian retaliation, the limits of US security guarantees, the risks to energy and desalination infrastructure, the vulnerability of the Gulf’s economic model relying on stability and foreign investment, and the potential postwar regional order if Iran survives weakened but intact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our episodes! Writer and former U.S. Army intelligence officer Harrison Mann joins the show to talk about the U.S–Iran war and what a ground invasion could actually look like. They discuss Harrison’s resignation from the Defense Intelligence Agency over U.S. support for the Gaza genocide, his assessment of the first weeks of the conflict with Iran, internal divisions within the military and intelligence community, and the risks of shifting the rules of engagement and permissive attitudes toward civilian casualties. They then explore potential ground invasion scenarios, including special raids on nuclear facilities, the proposal to seize Kharg Island, the feasibility of occupying territory along the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader trajectory of the conflict. Read Harrison’s piece “I Was a US Intelligence Analyst. Here's What a Ground Invasion of Iran Could Look Like.” Sign Win Without War's petition to Congress against spending more taxpayer dollars on the Iran war via an upcoming supplemental funding bill. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and access to all of our specials. Danny and Derek discuss the latest developments in the war in Iran, including the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island; Iran’s retaliation in the UAE and strategy around the Strait of Hormuz; the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei after reportedly sustaining wounds; Israel’s possible plan to occupy southern Lebanon and reports of interceptor shortages; China’s muted response to the war; and the U.S. deploying Marines to the region. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and all of our bonus content. Danny and Derek welcome to the podcast political scientist Robert Pape to talk about the theory and history of air power. They discuss how ideas of air superiority shaped modern military doctrine and the belief that air power alone can coerce or topple regimes. They then focus on the war with Iran, including the U.S. strategy falling into the “smart bomb trap,” Iran’s strategy of horizontal escalation, the use of precision drones, the risks surrounding dispersed nuclear material, and the potential economic and geopolitical shocks as the conflict expands. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to get access to all of our special episodes. Danny and Derek speak with Spencer Ackerman, writer of ⁠Forever Wars⁠ newsletter and author of ⁠Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America⁠ about the war in Iran, how it emerges from recent history, its military aspects, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our breaking news specials. We’re putting out, what, an episode a day at this point? But the news roundup must go on. This week: In the Iran war, casualty and displacement figures rise across Iran and Lebanon (1:20), Iran mines and threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz (4:31), Iranian officials threaten to expand the war by targeting financial institutions across the Gulf (7:47), and new supreme leader Mustafa Khomeini delivers his first address (10:27); in Gaza, aid shortages deepen as food supplies run low (16:01); escalating drone warfare hits markets, towns, and civilian targets in Sudan (17:19); in Mali, the U.S. moves to restore counterterrorism cooperation and reconnaissance flights with the ruling junta (22:20); new warnings of conflict emerge in Ethiopia’s Tigray region (24:51); Nepal’s Rastriya Swatantra Party secures a landslide victory in the latest elections (28:26); in Ukraine, the UN accuses Russia of committing a crime against humanity through the forced transfer of Ukrainian children (30:07); far-right politician José Antonio Kast takes office as president of Chile following the end of Gabriel Boric’s term (31:31); in Haiti, human rights groups warn about civilian harm from an expanding drone campaign targeting gangs in Port-au-Prince (34:05); and in these United States, investigations into the Minab elementary school strike raise questions about the use of AI-assisted targeting in U.S. military operations (35:41), plus Donald Trump hosts the first “Shield of the Americas” summit at his Doral resort (39:44). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Danny and Derek speak with Spencer Ackerman, writer of ⁠Forever Wars⁠ newsletter and author of ⁠Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America⁠ about the war in Iran, how it emerges from recent history, its military aspects, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to get all of our breaking news specials. Derek welcomes back legal scholar Maryam Jamshidi to discuss the legal aspect of the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. They talk about the administration’s shifting legal justifications, why the administration’s claims about Iranian threats and nuclear weapons fail under international law, the legal limits of self-defense, how the conflict fits within the laws of war, and the broader humanitarian and political consequences of the war for Iranian civilians and the country’s future.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and access to all of our breaking news specials. Danny and Derek give an update on the war in Iran and the region. They discuss Israeli strikes on fuel depots outside Tehran and the growing civilian toll, the pace of Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader, and the regional expansion of the conflict including ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Note: After the time of recording, ⁠CNN confirmed⁠ that Iran is placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our episodes. Danny and Derek speak with historian Alfred McCoy about how the Cold War operated as a global conflict influenced by decolonization, covert action, and geopolitical strategy. They discuss the role of individual intelligence operatives as “men on the spot”; Cold War rivalry and the collapse of European empires; how conflicts across Asia, Africa, and Latin America produced much of the war’s violence; the development of U.S. containment strategy and covert action institutions; and Iran as flashpoint in Cold War and post-Cold War geopolitics, and how Alfred interprets these conflicts through a lens of imperial decline and strategic chokepoints like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. Buy Alfred’s book Cold War on Five Continents! Reading recommendation: The Cold War's Killing Fields: Rethinking the Long Peace by Paul Thomas Chamberlin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices