S5 Ep54: Understanding US inflation

Recently, students all over the world have been demonstrating in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza or in support of the policies of the Israeli government. At times, police have been required to keep the two sides apart. Protests, sit-ins and encampments are scenes familiar on many campuses. Sciences Po in Paris, is one of the locations where protests have made national news. But a decade ago, a natural experiment on the effects of friendship at Sciences Po showed that there is potential for students to bridge political gaps simply by getting to know each other better for a short time. Yves Zenou of Monash University, also a CEPR fellow, is one of the authors of a new discussion paper that describes the experiment and its results. We spoke to him about how friendship can close political gaps, and how to create dialogue on campus and in society. Download “Friendship Networks and Political Opinions” https://cepr.org/publications/dp20075

With the major geopolitical powers squaring up to each other, tariffs on trade and political turmoil, is it time for economics to focus more on the consequences for the world economy of great power rivalry? A new paper defines the emerging field of geoeconomics, reviews the existing research, and sets out an agenda to fill the gaps in what we know. Christoph Trebesch of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Cathrin Mohr of Bonn University talk to Tim Phillips about how economists can collaborate with other disciplines to find fresh insights in this under-researched discipline.  Download CEPR discussion paper 19856, Geoeconomics https://cepr.org/publications/dp19856

Getting accepted to an elite PhD programme with a superstar advisor seems like “making it” if you want a research career in economics. But is it? How productive will those young, talented economists become? Half of elite economics PhDs from programmes at MIT, Harvard, Stanford and similar institutions publish next to nothing in the six years after they get their doctorate, and only 10% publish more than a paper or two. Josh Angrist of MIT & Marc Diederichs, University of Passau have studied what they call the economics PhD education production function at elite universities in the US. Tim Phillips asks them how, if these elite programmes are designed to create scholars who go on to publish their research consistently, can the institutions or their advisors do a better job of helping that to happen? Read about the research on VoxEU https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/prolific-phd-advisors-are-no-guarantee-graduate-student-research-success

What gives a life meaning? Is it about health, friends, family or something else? Do rich people have more meaningful lives than poor people? Do we find meaning in success or problems and failures too? During the Great Depression, the US Government Federal Writers’ Project dispatched a team of writers across the US with a simple brief: talk to people about their lives. The archive that they created, called American Life Histories, tells us what thousands of people across the US found meaningful in their lives. A new project uses artificial intelligence to discover what these documents reveal about the meaning of life. David Lagakos of Boston University, and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich are two of the authors. They talk to Tim Phillips about what they discovered, and the message for those of us who seek meaning in our lives today.  Read the Discussion Paper https://cepr.org/publications/dp19885 American Life histories at the Library of Congress https://www.loc.gov/collections/federal-writers-project/about-this-collection/

President Trump, aided by DOGE under Elon Musk, promised deep cuts to the US federal bureaucracy. In these cases, and many others in recent history, populist politicians complain about a bloated and unelected “administrative state” that they inherit from a previous regime. They say these public employees frustrate their ability to deliver on their promises. Others argue that a bureaucracy contains the experts that are needed to make policy function smoothly – and removing them will make government function less, not more, efficiently. So how do populists typically deal with their bureaucrats, and what are the consequences? An analysis of Italian local politics that was published recently might help us to understand what is happening in the US now, and what might happen next. Matia Vannoni of King’s College London was one of the authors. He talks to Tim Phillips about what happens when we expel the experts. Read Matia’s research on VoxEU (https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/expelling-experts-cost-populism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-government-performance) Photo: Gage Skidmore

Central banks play a crucial role in modern economies, managing money supply, setting interest rates, and ensuring financial stability. But their relationship with governments, particularly their role as financial agents of the state, creates potential risks that could threaten economic stability. Does the way central banks are structured and operate obscure the true fiscal health of the state, and pose risks for the wider economy? That’s what Willem Buiter – former Chief Economist at Citigroup, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, among many other things – claims.  In conversation with Tim Phillips, he sets out six challenges that central banks may face in the future and explains what central bankers can do about them.  The discussion paper is here.

Do you and your boss see the world in the same way and how does that affect your performance at work? You might not agree with your boss about everything. But if you and your boss don’t have the same outlook, does this mean you will be less productive? Alexia Delfino of Bocconi University measured both the values and the performance of employees at a global bank. She tells Tim Phillips whether shared values mean better outcomes – and what this means for diversity and team building.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. The menopause can be a huge biological shock to women, but there has been almost no research into the consequences for their working lives. A new study uses administrative data from Norway and Sweden to discover the consequences of the menopause, both for health and for earnings. Rita Ginja of the university of Bergen tells Tim Phillips about the surprising size and persistence of the menopause penalty, and the difference that education and choice of career can make.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. Whenever economists gather, you will find many of tomorrow’s best economists too. They get a rare chance to present their research, and traditionally we like to ask three of them to talk to us about it too. In this episode, Tim Phillips talks to three more young researchers about their work – and about how economics can do better. Matyas Molnar of Central European University describes his paper “International exhibitions as trade promotion”. Laura Arnemann of the University of Mannheim investigated “Taxes and Pay without Performance: Evidence from Executives”. And Gustavo García Bernal of Sciences Po speaks about “From Parent to Child: Intergenerational Wealth Dynamics and Inequalities.”

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. Everywhere in the world there is still a stigma around periods. That can lead to bullying or exclusion in schools. Girls are stressed, and that affects their ability to study. In Madagascar, an RCT set out to end the stigma by discussing menstruation openly and seeking out Young Girl Leaders who could help their peers understand what was happening, and why it shouldn’t be a source of embarrassment or shame. Karen Macours of the Paris School of Economics tells Tim Phillips about the extraordinary effect of the programme on mental health and graduation rates.