UBS On-Air: Market Moves

On this week’s episode, Burkhard joins us from the rooftop of the legendary Lingotto factory in Turin, Italy, where he outlines the case for why the AI trade has not peaked. We dive into what earnings stories have been telling us, supply-and-demand trends, and reported long-term contracts with Semiconductor companies.

As newly elected lawmakers make their way to Washington DC for New Member Orientation, Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Manager from Governmental Affairs US, takes us behind the scenes for a look at what this week’s agenda consists of. We also take inventory of election result outcomes across the country that remain outstanding, how the process for naming new Congressional leadership has been shaping up, and how lawmakers are responding to this week’s AI-industry related developments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today’s release of US October producer price inflation is expected to show higher prices, with oil leading the way. Diesel prices are directly included in this data (they are not in US consumer price numbers). However, there will also be examination of the details to see if there is better evidence of tariff inflation effects fading from the calculation.

UK GDP continued its recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter. (The numbers are just a rough approximation, of course). Services led growth, with car and chemical imports the main offset. UK consumers have generally experienced a small positive real income growth, but have room to reduce savings rates and continue consuming.

State credit remains one of the strongest parts of the municipal bond market - Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an overview of recent developments across the US State-sector. Jeannine outlines the condition of state credit quality, revenue and expense trends, how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act stands to shape state budget choices, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets seem focused on AI, but some of the details in yesterday’s stronger US consumer price inflation data matter. Groceries and electricity prices continue to rise noticeably, and have a strong influence over inflation perceptions and affordability. Affordability concerns have not noticeably changed consumer behavior so far, but they might in future. Rising electricity prices may bolster popular resistance to data centers.

The political implications of Brazil’s Presidential and the US midterm election outcomes are significant, however for investors, the bigger question is whether these results actually change the underlying economic and geopolitical forces driving markets. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, discusses whether investors should be making changes to their portfolios following these two consequential elections. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US October consumer price inflation is due. The element of guesswork in calculating inflation has risen recently. That is compounded by the absence of data from October 2025 to use in comparison (the legacy of the 2025 government shutdown is still felt). Consumers are likely to perceive inflation as being higher than reported, given the undue importance placed on high-frequency purchases.

The expression “there are decades where nothing happens and weeks when decades happen” has often been invoked in recent years, and it could easily apply to last week given the outcome of the US midterm elections. However, it was also a big week in financial markets, albeit for negative reasons, because investors grew increasingly nervous about the AI trade due to concerns about regulatory slowdowns to new data centers. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the recent market movement, what it means for the investment outlook, and how to position your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The weekend has demonstrated that US policy uncertainty is likely to continue. On immigration and Iran there were contradictory signals, and the confusion about the White House press secretary demonstrates a general assumption of few conventional boundaries to the administration’s decisions. This uncertainty matters to expectations about the oil price, and also to firms attempting to take strategic longer term decisions.