IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and series context01:08 - Inflation back on the radar02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead30:04 - What...

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Alex on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing36:50...

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and welcome01:05 - A disrupted start to 202603:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 202515:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead31:08 - Institutional views on trend following40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis...

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left...

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Opening and the start of 202603:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden49:54 - Prediction versus participation53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking aheadCopyright © 2025

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow William on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks26:40 - What happens when...

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to&nbsp;[email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating &amp; Review on&nbsp;iTunes&nbsp;or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on <a href="https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to&nbsp;[email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating &amp; Review on&nbsp;iTunes&nbsp;or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack &amp; read his Book.Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away12:58 - Blocker...

Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to&nbsp;[email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating &amp; Review on&nbsp;iTunes&nbsp;or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on <a href="https://twitter.com/richb118" rel="noopener noreferrer"...