Think Macro by H2O AM

Midterms, rates, the dollar and the yen: H2O AM's macro view, days before the vote.A few days before the US midterm elections, Babak Abrar, Chief Sales & Marketing Officer at H2O AM Group, sits down with Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer at H2O AM Group & Monaco S.A.M. Purchasing power and the scenarios for Congress, a global rush for capital weighing on long-term rates, a flattening dollar smile, emerging markets that no longer need our money, and a yen with almost all its planets aligned: a full tour of the house's macro convictions. The episode ends in Europe, on debt, France and European banks.Find out more about H2O AM : https://www.h2o-am.com/This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer, or a solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell securities, related financial instruments, or other products, or to engage in a trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the referenced author(s) as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in a product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits, and the suitability of such products, and should consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may rise or fall, and that past performance is not indicative of future results.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this episode, Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer of H2O AM Group & Monaco S.A.M., revisits the speculative bubble many feared around AI and the hyperscalers. A year after our first warnings, markets have dodged that trap: credit markets got skeptical, supplier-stock excess corrected, and the Fed reintroduced healthy uncertainty. But the risk hasn't disappeared - it has simply moved. To fund the AI race, tech giants are now borrowing at scale, pushing up interest rates and making the entire US economy - government, households, and now hyperscalers too - hostage to the cost of capital.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer, or a solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell securities, related financial instruments, or other products, or to engage in a trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the referenced author(s) as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in a product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits, and the suitability of such products, and should consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may rise or fall, and that past performance is not indicative of future results.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Six months in, and the macro picture looks nothing like a quiet year. In this mid-year review, Vincent Chailley, CIO at H2O AM Group & Monaco S.A.M., sits down with Thomas Delabre, Portfolio Manager and macro specialist, to take stock of a first half shaped by the Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the return of the AI theme with a vengeance. Three worlds, three very different stories - a resilient Europe with no real growth engine, a US walking an increasingly fine line, and an Asia quietly accumulating structural advantages the market is still underestimating. Where do we stand, and what comes next?This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer, or a solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell securities, related financial instruments, or other products, or to engage in a trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the referenced author(s) as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in a product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits, and the suitability of such products, and should consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may rise or fall, and that past performance is not indicative of future results.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this new episode of ThinkMacro presented by Babak Abrar, Vincent Chailley (CIO of H2O AM Group and H2O Monaco S.A.M), discusses the macroeconomic fallout from the conflict in Iran and its implications for global growth and markets. Behind the immediate shock, the discussion dives into the growing vulnerabilities of the US economy - from constrained fiscal and monetary buffers to softening consumer confidence - and explores whether the dollar’s long-standing dominance as the world’s reserve currency might finally be challenged. A timely and in-depth analysis of shifting global dynamics and what they could mean for investors.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this episode of ThinkMacro, Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of H2O AM Group, explores the transformation of Japan’s economy after three decades of deflation and stagnation. He traces the country’s evolution from the 1980s bubble collapse through Abenomics reforms to today’s return of sustainable, organic growth. The episode examines how deep structural changes in labor markets, governance, and fiscal policy have reshaped Japan’s economic foundations, while analysing the implications for interest rates, currency dynamics, and financial markets. The key message: Japan has finally escaped deflation, but investors should expect a very different macro environment ahead.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Fueled by stimulus and debt, the U.S. economy appears resilient — but the foundations may be far weaker than they seem. Vincent Chailley, H2O AM Group CIO breaks down the drivers of this artificial high and the risks behind it: how long can America sustain its growth on borrowed momentum?This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Between the loss of effectiveness of economic policies in the United States, European resilience, China's transition and the rise of emerging markets, our new episode of Think Macro explores the macroeconomic dynamics that are reshaping the global balance. A two-way discussion with Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, and Thomas Delabre, portfolio manager and macro specialist, on a more diverse world, where growth no longer depends on a single engine.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, explores an unusual market dynamic: central banks are cutting policy rates, yet long-term yields keep rising. This reversal is no coincidence - it reflects investors demanding a higher term premium in response to renewed concerns over debt sustainability, persistent inflation, and weakening institutional credibility.We analyse why this shift matters, how it constrains economic policy, and what it could mean for investors and developed economies in the years ahead.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, Group CIO of H2O AM, analyses the global AI investment boom and its macroeconomic implications. As trillions flow into data centres and big tech races to dominate the future, can these colossal investments truly extend US growth, or are they masking the next slowdown? The AI Innovation Cycle: Invest Now or Die Later explores whether today’s technological revolution is a sustainable driver of productivity or a costly illusion of momentum.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Europe has gained resilience since the sovereign debt crisis: a stabilising common currency, low unemployment, and debt held largely by domestic institutions. Yet behind this reassuring façade, growth remains stagnant at barely above 1% per year. Declining competitiveness is gradually undermining the continent’s commercial independence. In light of this, the challenge is clear: Europe must revive productivity and innovation to break free from inertia - otherwise, it risks increasing dependence on external global powers.This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.