Predicting AI Policy in the Second Trump Administration

“We’re in a whole tangled mess…we’ve gotten ourselves into a tangled mess around not just securing our infrastructure, but also around competition for the pieces of our infrastructure.” AI has become a cornerstone of modern defense, economic security, commerce, and more. But without effective cybersecurity strategies, the technology that has helped drive U.S. innovation and productivity could become our Achilles heel. Kemba Walden, president of the Paladin Global Institute and former Acting National Cyber Director, and Devin Lynch, senior director of the Paladin Global Institute and former director in the Office of the National Cyber Director, join the podcast to discuss their new report, “The AI Tech Stack: A Primer for Tech and Cyber Policy,” and the importance of implementing effective security measures and infrastructure around its deployment.

This summer, millions of Americans will head to the beach to beat the heat. But how clean is the water they're swimming in? At many beaches, especially on the East Coast, water quality is rarely tested for bacteria, pollution, and other health hazards that may be dangerous to both beachgoers and the many species that live in marine habitats. While the importance of clean drinking water is a well-known issue, pollution in swimming water has also become a serious public health issue in some areas of the United States, even causing national security issues for Navy SEALs, Border Patrol officers, and more who use these waters. Mara Dias, Water Quality Initiative senior manager at the Surfrider Foundation, joins the podcast to discuss how the Foundation's Blue Water Task Force helps monitor water quality at beaches across the country and the public health implications of reducing contamination.

“I think what happened here is Europeans made a lot of commitments that they don’t have any intention of fulfilling—at least in the near term—and this is all about appeasing President Trump to keep him engaged with the NATO alliance.” At the recent summit in The Hague, Netherlands, NATO allies agreed to spend a target 5 percent of GDP on defense in a win for Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed the belief that European NATO allies are not spending enough. Was this a mistake—and can European nations afford to follow through?CSIS’s Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, joins the podcast to discuss what really happened at the NATO summit and how defense spending will impact European economies going forward.

“The word ‘obliteration’ is being used a lot…I think there’s a little more nuance to it.” Intelligence assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, and the United States have provided competing accounts of the functionality of Fordow, Iran’s critical uranium refinement site, and the Iranian nuclear program as a whole. The intelligence community still has a lot of blanks to fill in, including the extent of the damage to various Iranian nuclear sites, the state of Iran’s missile arsenal, and how much of a setback this represents for Iran’s nuclear program. CSIS’s Heather Williams, director of the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues, joins the podcast to discuss the uncertain status of Iran’s nuclear program following Operation Midnight Hammer and what we should be watching for next.

“They didn’t understand the essence of Israel, and they are now dead.” Are Iran and regional terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah considering the reality of Israel’s military posture and motivations? Iran may have underestimated Israel’s willingness to launch a surprise attack like the one that started the 12-day war, but with a fragile ceasefire in place, it is unclear whether Tehran’s military calculus has changed. Ambassador Dennis Ross, counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and best known for serving in five U.S. presidential administrations, joins the podcast to discuss whether the war represents a turning point in Israel-Iran relations, if Israel exceeded its traditional defense posture, and how Iran should consider the state of play going forward.

CSIS Missile Threat Program director Tom Karako joins the podcast to assess conflicting reports about the degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile program and how soon Iran may be able to rebuild.

CSIS’s Jon Alterman, a longtime Middle East scholar and geopolitical expert, joins the podcast to discuss potential outcomes from Israel and Iran’s 12-day war and shaky ceasefire. Key question: Does the conflict and ceasefire make the world a safer place and reduce nuclear proliferation, or does it possibly increase nuclear proliferation?

CSIS Middle East Program Director Mona Yacoubian joins the podcast to discuss Monday’s strike by Iran on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the broader strategic implications of the conflict.

In this cross over episode, Mariana and Andrew are joined by Gopi Kallayil, Google’s Chief Business Strategist for AI, to explore what he calls “the most profound technology ever created by human beings.” Gopi shares how AI’s evolution is reshaping industries while amplifying human cognition and creativity. They discuss the tightrope between AI’s promise and risks, including the need for new “checks and balances” and emerging defenses against malicious AI. Gopi offers a nuanced take on AI’s impact on jobs, the skills future generations need, and why uniquely human traits will always matter. He also reflects on AI’s explosive rise in public awareness and the trillions in economic value it could unlock—offering an optimistic vision of a smarter, more prosperous world

CSIS’s Norm Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East joins the podcast to discuss how conflict with Iran might end, what regime change could look like, the wider implications for the United States and the region and more.